IEA World Energy Outlook 2011
In its “World Energy Outlook 2011,” the International Energy Agency (IEA) assesses what emissions reductions current and announced policies can deliver by 2035.
For 2020, they find that, taking into account only current policies, energy and industry-related carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions rise by 25% compared to 2009 levels. If announced policies were to be implemented cautiously, these emissions would rise by 19%.
The IEA assesses both cases as insufficient to keep global average temperature rise to below 2°C, and warns of the danger of locking-in CO2 emissions in long-lasting energy infrastructure.
The current assessment of the Climate Action Tracker finds that, based on current pledges and including the influence from credits from LULUCF and surplus allowances, energy and industry-related CO2 emissions would rise by 26% from 2009 to 2020.
The Climate Action Tracker assessment is very close to the IEA’s assessment of what emissions would be in the absence of increased levels of ambition.