Brazil's climate target is rated Medium. Although the pledge falls into the sufficient category it is conditional to financial support and is therefore only rated medium.
Brazil was one of the first major developing countries that has set an emission target. Brazil presented in April 2011 a business-as-usual level in 2020 that is the basis for their 36% to 39% reduction target. This level is significantly higher than the level that can be derived from the submission to the Copenhagen Accord made in January 2010. This is due to additional sources included in the historical emissions and larger projected emissions from deforestation and other sources. Hence the allowed absolute emission level under the target is significantly higher. Brazil has now characterized its actions as conditional on financial support.
The target provides very ambitious goals for reducing emissions from deforestation, the main source of greenhouse gas emissions in Brazil. Current emissions from deforestation are highly uncertain, therefore the impact of measures to reduce deforestation rates on national emissions is also uncertain.
Brazil will reduce its emissions by 36.1% to 38.9% in 2020 compared to BAU emissions. The target is conditional to international financing. The target was turned into national law in December 2010. It was originally proposed in November 2009 and submitted to the Copenhagen Accord on 29 January 2010. That submission suggested a BAU level of 2704 MtCO2e. The national law however includes a BAU level of 3236 MtCO2e with the same percentage reduction.
Brazil's pledge to the Copenhagen Accord
Original press release on target November 2009
Mitigation scenario as the basis for the target as submitted to the Copenhagen accord in early 2010
Second national communication that is the basis for the national law of December 2010
Government Brazil. (2008a). National Plan on Climate Change Brazil, Executive Summary. In: Interministerial Committee on Climate Change (Ed.) Decree No. 6263
Historical and future emissions were taken from the calculations provided in the press release on the target. Forestry emissions were taken from the national communications of Brazil. We interpreted the target as an unconditional pledge although this is not explicitly mentioned by Brazil.