Chile proposes to undertake Nationally Appropriate Mitigation Actions (NAMAs) to reach 20% below BAU in 2020 (as projected from 2007). According to our analysis, the country is still not close to achieving this level. It has various NAMA proposals moving towards implementation which may lead the way to further emission reductions in the future.
Chile proposes to undertake NAMAs to reach 20% below BAU in 2020 (as projected from 2007). To accomplish this Chile will need a relevant level of international support. We use business as usual data from O’Ryan et al. (O'Ryan et al., 2010) to estimate the absolute level of the pledge, which results in 115 MtCO2e in 2020.
Currently implemented policies are a first step towards reducing emissions. However, these policies need to be scaled up substantially to lead to significant mitigation. A potential threat to climate change mitigation in Chile are plans to meet increasing demand with additional coal fired power plants (O'Ryan et al., 2010), drawing from national resources instead of relying on imported, less carbon intensive natural gas or renewable sources. Activities in the energy sector now could therefore provide solutions leading to a long-term transformation of the sector and avoiding a lock-in to coal-fired electricity generation.
Three data sets of emissions are available from Institutions in Chile: The Initial National Communication to the UNFCCC including projections for 2020, the 2nd National Communication including historic emissions by sector from 1984 to 2006, and data from a research group at Universidad de Chile that includes projections until 2030 for all sectors except agriculture and waste (O’Ryan et al., 2010). For the Universidad de Chile data we assume constant agriculture and waste emissions for all future years based on 2006 data. It is unclear to which data the pledge under the Copenhagen Accord refers to. We show most recent projections available from the Universidad de Chile.
Chile has provided data up to 2006 in its second national communication (Government of Chile, 2011). For projections, we use growth rates from O’Ryan et al (2010). For agriculture and waste, we assume that emission levels from 2006 remain stable.
Comisión Nacional del Medio Ambiente (1999). Chile’s Initial National Communication
Government of Chile, Ministerio del Medio Ambiente (2011). Chile’s 2nd National Communication Santiago.
O`Ryan, Raúl; Díaz, Manuel; Clerc, Jacques (2010). Emission data Universidad de Chile
Government of Chile (2010). Chile's pledge to the Copenhagen Accord. Compiled in: Compilation of information on nationally appropriate mitigation actions to be implemented by Parties not included in Annex I to the Convention, UNFCCC (2011)