Chile proposes to undertake Nationally Appropriate Mitigation Actions1 (NAMAs) to reach an emissions level 20% below business-as-usual in 2020 (as projected from 2007). According to our analysis, the country is still not close to achieving this level. It has various NAMA proposals moving towards implementation, which may lead the way to further emission reductions in the future.
Chile proposes to undertake NAMAs to reach an emissions reduction 20% below business-as-usual (BAU) in 2020 (as projected from 2007). We use a business-as-usual scenario from the Chilean Ministry of Energy (Searle, 2011) to estimate the absolute level of the pledge, which results in an absolute pledged emissions level of 118 MtCO2e in 2020 (excluding LULUCF).
Historical emissions grew from 43 MtCO2e in 1990 to 96 MtCO2e in 2006, excluding LULUCF. Taking into account Chile’s current policies, we estimate that emissions will reach 142 MtCO2e in 2020, which exceeds Chile’s pledge level. We project that emissions in 2030 will be approximately 179 MtCO2e. One of the most significant implemented policies is the Non-Conventional Renewable Energy Law (NCRE), which aims to achieve a 20% renewable energy target in 2025.
The Government’s Energy Agenda 2014–2018 (Government of Chile, 2014) proposes additional policies which may contribute to further emissions reductions. The Agenda affirms support for the NCRE and prioritises activities to improve energy efficiency. To address energy security concerns, the Energy Agenda also highlights the current Government’s intention to develop LNG import facilities and invest in oil and gas exploration projects. This is a significant shift away from previous Government plans to meet increasing demand with additional coal fired power plants (O’Ryan et al., 2010).
Five sets of emissions data are available: The Initial National Communication to the UNFCCC including projections for 2020, the 2nd National Communication including historic emissions by sector from 1984 to 2006, data from a research group at Universidad de Chile that includes projections until 2030 for all sectors except agriculture and waste (O’Ryan et al., 2010), a presentation by the Chilean Ministry of Energy that includes BAU projections to 2020 (Searle, 2011) and a report from the Boston Consulting Group (BCG) that includes BAU projections for all sectors to 2040.
The pledge was not communicated with a reference pathway. We have therefore calculated Chile’s 2020 pledge using as reference the BAU pathway presented by Searle (2011) on behalf of the Chilean Government.
Current policy projections
Chile has provided data up to 2006 in its second national communication (Government of Chile, 2011). For the current policy projection, we estimate the resulting emissions by taking into account growth rates from BCG (2013) and the anticipated impact of the Non-conventional renewable energy law.
Boston Consulting Group (BCG) (2013). Inventario de emisiones de GEI 1990-2010, proyección de emisiones a 2040 y matrices de abatimiento de CO2 – Chile.
Comisión Nacional del Medio Ambiente (1999). Chile’s Initial National Communication.
Government of Chile (2010). Chile's pledge to the Copenhagen Accord. Compiled in: Compilation of information on nationally appropriate mitigation actions to be implemented by Parties not included in Annex I to the Convention, UNFCCC (2011)
Government of Chile, Ministerio del Medio Ambiente (2011). Chile’s 2nd National Communication Santiago.
Government of Chile (2014). Agenda de energía.
O`Ryan, Raúl; Díaz, Manuel; Clerc, Jacques (2010). Emission data Universidad de Chile.
Searle, J.P. (2011). Workshop on NAMAs Submitted by Developing Country Parties.
1 Nationally Appropriate Mitigation Actions (NAMAs) are voluntary measures undertaken by developing countries to contribute to greenhouse gas emission mitigation. The concept was introduced in 2007 at the 13th session of the Conference of the Parties (COP) in Bali, Indonesia.