Croatia’s target for the second commitment period of the Kyoto Protocol is to reduce emissions by 20% compared to 1990 levels. With current policies in place it is unlikely to meet its pledge. Current policies are expected to lead to a 12% increase over 1990 levels. Even accounting for LULUCF credits, which are estimated at 0.97 MtCO2e, this would still represent an increase of around 9% relative to 1990 levels.
It remains to be seen how the inclusion of Croatia in the European Union will impact their target. Their target under an internal effort sharing decision will only cover the sectors and gases not included in the EU ETS. It is possible that this target would differ from the joint target. So far, there has been no decision in the EU in this respect.
In May 2012, Croatia submitted a provisional QELRO level range of 80 for the second commitment period of the Kyoto Protocol, aligning itself with Denmark and the European Commission. This means that Croatia’s average yearly emissions during the period of 2013-2020 are proposed to be 80% of 1990 levels.
Croatia's Kyoto Protocol target for the first commitment period is -5% relative to base year (1990) and is equal to their original pledge under the Copenhagen Accord for 2020.
Croatia’s inscription in Appendix 1 to the Copenhagen Accord states that its target is temporary, pending accession to the European Union, whereupon Croatia’s target would be “… replaced by arrangement in line with and part of the European Union mitigation effort.” (see the EU27 page for further information)
Currently implemented policies in Croatia will lead to 35 MtCO2e in 2020 (excluding LULUCF), which would mean an increase of approximately 12% compared to 1990 levels. Main policies included in current trends are highlighted in Table 12.
Historically, Croatia saw a steep decline in emissions after 1990, reaching the lowest level in 1994 at 29% below 1990 levels. Since then, emissions have been steadily increasing until they reached 1990 levels again in 2007. The financial crisis resulted in a drop in emissions, like in many other countries. Although emission reduction policies are being put in place now, emissions are expected to start increasing again from 2012.
When Croatia joined the EU, it also joined the EU Emission Trading System (ETS), as well as now being subject to other existing legislation at European level, which will subsequently need to be implemented at national level. For the ETS, Croatia already selected 73 installations to participate and started implementation ahead of its membership to the EU, as they had already begun implementing an internal trading system in 2009.
In 2003, the Act on Environmental Protection and Energy Efficiency established the Environmental Protection and Energy Efficiency Fund, with the aim to finance preparation, implementation and development of programmes and projects in the field of environmental protection, energy efficiency and use of renewable energy. Operational since 2004, it raises revenues through charges on environmental polluters, which includes charges on the emission of nitrogen oxides, sulphur dioxide and carbon dioxide, charges on users of the environment, on environmental load by waste and special environmental charges on motor vehicles (Ministry of Environmental Protection, Physical Planning and Construction, 2010).
Targets for the second commitment period of the Kyoto Protocol were calculated from the most recent national inventory submissions (Ministry of Environmental Protection, Physical Planning and Construction 2010).
We calculated Croatia's LULUCF accounting quantities for 2020 for afforestation, reforestation and deforestation using the current Kyoto rules, and for forest management using a net-net approach, with a reference level based on 1990 levels.
Greenhouse gas emission inventories are available from 1990 to 2011 in the CRF 2013 submitted to UNFCCC. Current trend projections are based on emission projections from Croatia's Fifth National Communication (Ministry of Environmental Protection, Physical Planning and Construction, 2010).
Both projections do not reflect latest historic data. We therefore use historic data up to 2011 and then apply growth rates from the projections.
CRF (2013). UNFCCC AWG-KP Submissions 2013. Common Reporting Format.
Government of Croatia (2012a). Information by Parties included in Annex I listed in annex 1 to decision 1/CMP.7 on their quantified emission limitation or reduction objectives for the second commitment period under the Kyoto Protocol
Government of Croatia (2012b). Submission to the Ad-Hoc Working Group on Further Commitments for Annex I Parties under the Kyoto Protocol (AWG-KP): Information by Parties included in Annex I listed in annex 1 to decision 1/CMP.7 on their quantified emission limitation or reduction objectives for the second commitment period under the Kyoto Protocol, 30 April 2012
Government of Croatia (2010). Croatia's pledge to the Copenhagen Accord. Compiled in: Compilation of economy-wide emission reduction targets to be implemented by Parties included in Annex I to the Convention, UNFCCC (2011).
Government of Croatia (2009). Joint submission by Australia, Belarus, Canada, Croatia, the European Community and its Member States, Iceland, Japan, Kazakhstan, Liechtenstein, Monaco, New Zealand, Norway, Russian Federation, Switzerland, Ukraine Information relating to possible quantified emissions limitation and reduction objectives as submitted by Parties, Submission to the AWG-LCA and AWG-KP, 9 October 2009.
European Environment Agency (2012). Greenhouse gas emission trends and projections in Europe 2012. Copenhagen.
Ministry of Environmental Protection, Physical Planning and Construction (2010). Fifth National Communication of the Republic of Croatia under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC)
UNFCCC (2009). Report of the Review of the Initial report of Croatia