The Climate Action Tracker performed its first assessment of policies impacting the greenhouse gas emission profile for Mexico.
Read the full report.
Mexico was the first developing country in the world to announce a long term target to 2050: a reduction of 50% below 2002 levels. Mexico’s international “Cancún pledge” is ambitious: to reduce emissions to 30% below business as usual (BAU) by 2020, conditional on international financial support.
Mexico’s progress in policy planning and institution building over the past years has been remarkable. However, more action is needed to meet the current emissions reduction targets for 2020 and Mexico needs to put more effort into implementing policies that secure long-term action.
Mexico scored an overall “D” for its general climate strategy, on a scale from A to G based on the ambitious low carbon vision, and a D for energy efficiency in industry – with all other ratings below this, indicating much room for improvement.
Key results of the assessment:
- Mexico was likely to achieve only half of its short-term, 2012 reduction targets
- Business as usual would see an increase in greenhouse gas emissions of 50% by 2030 from today.
- Current policies would reduce emissions by 21% below business as usual by 2030 - with the reductions coming from industry, land use and forest control and energy supply.
- The long term (2050) target of cutting emissions by 50% below 2002 levels is not yet supported by policies - but Mexico has not specified how much it will rely on international funding.
- Energy intensity is improving by almost 7% with policies by 2030, compared to the expected trend in reducing energy use per unit of GDP steadily but slowly under business as usual.
- Emissions intensity under business as usual would see a reversal of the historic trend, where emissions per unit of energy used have increased steadily over time. This reversal results from an assumed replacement of oil with gas in the industry and building sectors. Implementation of current measures would improve emission intensity by further by 10% by 2030 compared to business as usual.
Impact of policies on the international pledge
Current policies would achieve a 12% reduction of emissions by 2020 - a third to half of its Cancún pledge.
Assessing the 2020 pledge in a global “2°C“ context
Mexico is rated Medium, because it has a highly detailed climate plan with significant actions up to 2020 and ambitious long-term goals. It recently increased the 2020 target from a 20% to a 30% reduction below the baseline. A downside is that Mexico has made reductions after 2012 conditional on external financing without further specification. The rating could improve to Sufficient at least, if the 2020 target was considered unilateral.
In its submission under the Copenhagen Accord, "Mexico aims at reducing its GHG emissions up to 30% with respect to the business as usual scenario by 2020, provided the provision of adequate financial and technological support from developed countries as part of a global agreement." President Felipe Calderón announced this target during the Copenhagen conference.
Mexico has a very detailed national plan up to 2012, which includes measures and their effects on emissions. The resulting emission reductions up to 2012 are a first unconditional step. The plan is in line with an overall strategy to reduce emissions by 50% by 2050, which assumes moderate reductions in the early years and more ambitions reductions later. Funding is secured for the reductions up to 2012.
Submitted under the Copenhagen Accord and acknowledged under the Cancun Agreements
Date of pledge
11 December 2009
Emissions and projections are taken from the Mexican national plan. We assumed that the actions in the climate plan up to 2012 are unilateral actions, since funding has been secured.