EU27

Rating

Assessment

The EU27 unconditional commitment of -20% relative to 1990 emission levels is rated Inadequate. If the conditional target of -30% relative to 1990 were adopted, the EU27 target would be rated Medium, just short of the Sufficient category, in which reductions from 1990 stretch roughly from above -30% to -45%. LULUCF accounting was calculated based on Party-provided projections; if future emissions instead were to follow a historical mean, larger credits, as much as 120 MtCO2eq more, could result. In addition, the EU supports proposals to remove emissions from natural disturbances and to count removals from harvested wood products. This has not been accounted for here, but could lead to higher credits (or lower debits). However, the inclusion of international aviation into the European emissions trading scheme is the first effort to regulate emissions from this sector globally. The impact of this on EU27’s 2020 target was not quantitatively evaluated here.

Description

The aggregate effective Kyoto Protocol target (2008-2012) for the EU27 is estimated as -7.7% relative to 1990 emission levels. The EU27 proposed to decrease emissions by -20 to -30% relative to 1990 by 2020 and by -80 to -95% below 1990 by 2050. In the Copenhagen Accord the EU announced its target of -30% of 1990 emissions by 2020 as part of a global agreement post-2012 provided that other developed countries commit themselves to comparable efforts and developing countries contribute according to their capabilities. EU clarified that its accounting rules for this post 2012 target are more stringent than the current rules under the Kyoto Protocol:
- A single 1990 base-year is used, not allowing for different base years for F-gases or Economies In Transition as under the Kyoto Protocol.
- It does not recognise surplus AAUs from the first commitment period of the Kyoto Protocol.
- Emissions from international aviation are included in the target and the legislation foresees the need to include international maritime emissions, if no progress is achieved at the international level to include these.
- Emissions and removals from LULUCF are at present not included in the achievement of the reduction target, but may be at a later stage given the legislation foresees already that accounting rules should ensure permanence and environmental integrity.

Status

Adopted legislation

Date of pledge
December 2008