India is rated Medium. It is welcomed that it has provided a quantitative target. However, the assessment is difficult, as the data underlying the target is not available. With the limited data available we assess that the pledge could either lead to considerable reductions or in theory lead to emissions far above the business as usual level. The ranking could improve if India would put forward its national climate strategy which we assess to be more ambitious than the official pledge to the Copenhagen Accord.
It is likely that India will meet its pledge with national measures implemented and planned.
"India will endeavour to reduce the emission intensity of its GDP by 20 to 25% by 2020 in comparison to the 2005 level. The emissions from the agriculture sector will not form part of the assessment of emissions intensity." The target was proposed during the Copenhagen negotiations and submitted to the Copenhagen Accord on 30 January 2010. Data underlying the figures were not provided.
India earlier provided a climate plan, which provides eight national missions in key areas. It provides several measures but only a few of them are quantified in terms of resulting emission reductions. However, detailed targets on the electricity sector are contained in the 11th 5 year plan. Most measures in the climate plan are rather general, e.g. promoting public transport or a fuel switch in industry. The plan does not provide an overall baseline and mitigation scenario. The range from different quantitative assessments of the plan are included in the figure above.
Announcement by the Environmental Minister, submitted under the Copenhagen Accord and acknowledged under the Cancun Agreements
India's pledge to the Copenhagen Accord
Transcript of the speech of the Environment Minister on 4 December 2009
Government India. (2008). National Action Plan on Climate Change. New Delhi: Government of India, Prime Minister's Council on Climate Change
Government India and Planning Commission. (2008). Eleventh Five Year Plan 2007-12 Volume III. In: agriculture, rural development, industry, services, and physical infrastructure
India has not provided official emission or GDP projections together with the target nor the effects of their climate plans on total emissions. Our assumptions are based on a comparison of various sources, including the Timer model, WEO 2009 data, McKinsey 2010, Stern 2010, TERI 2009 data and Moltmann et al. 2010 as compiled for den Elzen et al. 2010, Evaluation of the Copenhagen Accord: Chances and risks for the 2°C climate goal. Bilthoven, The Hague. Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency.