Indonesia pledged to reduce emissions by 26% below BAU unilaterally and 41% with sufficient international support. With current policies in place it will likely not achieve the pledge, however the uncertainty of LULUCF emissions makes an evaluation difficult.
Indonesia proposed to cut emissions by 26% by 2020 from "business as usual" (BAU) levels. The target was proposed in September 2009 and submitted to the Copenhagen Accord on 30 January 2010. A large proportion of these reductions would come from reducing deforestation. In April 2011 Indonesia clarified that, in addition to its unilateral 26% target, it proposes a 41% reduction below BAU target based on supported Nationally Appropriate Mitigation Actions (NAMAs).
Currently implemented policies are expected to decrease 2020 emissions by around 11% compared to BAU. Emission levels including LULUCF are expected to reach 2,519 MtCO2e in 2020, with 56% of these coming from the land use sector.
The key policy is the Green Energy Policy, which sets up plans for future energy supply. This legislation covers renewable electricity generation, and also includes biofuel quotas, which may significantly reduce emissions in the transport sector, if sustainable production is guaranteed. To reduce emissions further via the Green Energy policy, an even stronger focus could be put on renewable energy, as in the current planning, the share of coal-fired power plants will not decrease (Roelfsema et al., 2013). Another important sector for mitigation of GHG in Indonesia is LULUCF which is addressed under current legislation. However, emission reductions expected through current programmes are difficult to assess as the data uncertainty is high for this sector.
We used data on historic emissions and projections from the 2nd national communication, submitted in January 2011 and updated in January 2012 (Ministry of Environment, 2010). The data includes emissions from peat fires. As values for emissions from peat fire vary significantly according to different studies named in the national communication, we used the average of all these studies for the years 2000 to 2005. Data for 1990 to 1994 is available in Indonesia’s Initial National Communication, however the document states various issues related to lack of data and methodology, topics which have been significantly improved in the 2nd National Communication. We therefore do not show data for the first years.
The evaluation of the FLEGT Programme is based on (Höhne et al. 2012). The impact of energy related emissions is based on data of the Indonesian Energy Outlook (Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources of Republic of Indonesia, 2009).
Government of Indonesia(2010). Indonesia's pledge to the Copenhagen Accord. Compiled in: Compilation of information on nationally appropriate mitigation actions to be implemented by Parties not included in Annex I to the Convention, UNFCCC (2011)
Höhne et al. (2012). Greenhouse gas emission reduction proposals and national climate policies of major economies. PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency. Policy Brief. November.
Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources of Republic of Indonesia (2009). Indonesia Energy Outlook
Ministry of Environment, Indonesia (2010). Indonesia Second National Communication Under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change.
Roelfsema et al. (2013). Assessment of climate and energy policies of major emitting countries. PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency. Pub No. 1096.
UNFCCC (2011b). Information from the workshop on nationally appropriate mitigation actions submitted by developing country Parties, underlying assumptions, and any support needed for implementation of these actions, as requested by decision 1/CP.16, paragraph 51, held on 4 April 2011 in Bangkok Ministry of Environment (2010)