New Zealand's commitment to decrease emissions by -10 to -20% relative to 1990 emission levels is rated Inadequate. Both ends of the range are indicated as conditional, which clouds this assessment. LULUCF accounting was calculated based on Party-provided projections, if future emissions instead were to follow a historical mean, further credits of up to 20 MtCO2eq could result.
In addition, New Zealand supports proposals to remove emissions from natural disturbances and to count removals from harvested wood products, which has not been accounted for here. This could lead to higher credits (or lower debits).
New Zealand's Kyoto Protocol target for the first commitment period (2008-2012) is a return to base year (1990) emissions (0%). For 2020, New Zealand proposed to decrease emissions by -10 to -20% relative to 1990 by 2020. Both ends of this range are conditional on a global agreement which includes limiting temperature increase to 2ºC, comparability of effort by developed countries; advanced and major emitting developing countries taking action within their capacities; effective LULUCF rules, and full use of market mechanisms (see Source). For 2050, the proposed target is -50% relative to 1990 emissions.
Smith Nick, Tim Groser (2009) 2020 target balances economy & environment, Press Release 10 August 2009
Targets for 2020 were calculated from the most recent national inventory submissions (2012).
We calculated New Zealand's LULUCF accounting quantities in 2020 for afforestation, reforestation and deforestation using the current Kyoto rules and for forest management using a net-net approach with a projected reference level for 2013-2020. New Zealand has included a level of natural disturbance in their reference level.