Norway's target to reduce emissions by -30 to -40% relative to 1990 emission levels is ambitious enough to keep it within the Sufficient category. Only its -40% target is conditional on global action. At the UNFCCC workshop in April 2011, Norway emphasized the importance of clarifying LULUCF rules and revising countries' targets after the rules have been agreed. For its own targets of -30% and -40% it attributed 6 percentage points of the pledged reductions to LULUCF. This implies industrial emissions would need to be reduced by -24% for the unconditional pledge and -34% for the conditional pledge. These reductions for industrial emissions will remain fixed, even if a different set of LULUCF rules is adopted or new inventories change the original 6% estimate. This clarification does not change the overall evaluation of their level of ambition, but it is a positive step forward towards understanding the level of ambition.
Norway has proposed a 2020 commitment of -30 to -40% relative to 1990 emission levels and carbon neutrality by 2030. Norway’s -40% target is conditional on a global and comprehensive agreement after 2012, with major emitting Parties agreeing on reductions in line with achieving the 2 degrees Celsius target (see Source). At the UNFCCC workshop in April 2011, Norway clarified that they aim to achieve their pledge as submitted to the Copenhagen Accord, including their estimate for LULUCF accounting at the time. If LULUCF accounting changes from the value estimated for the Copenhagen Accord, they will aim to offset this change by shifting their pledge, such that their pledge including LULUCF accounting stays the same.
In May 2012, Norway submitted a provisional QELRO level range of 81-84 for the second commitment period of the Kyoto Protocol. This means that Norway’s average yearly emissions during the period of 2013-2020 are proposed to be between 81 and 84% of 1990 levels.
Norway (2012) Information by Parties included in Annex I listed in annex 1 to decision 1/CMP.7 on their quantified emission limitation or reduction objectives for the second commitment period under the Kyoto Protocol
Norway (2012) Submission to the Ad-Hoc Working Group on Further Commitments for Annex I Parties under the Kyoto Protocol (AWG-KP): Information by Parties included in Annex I listed in annex 1 to decision 1/CMP.7 on their quantified emission limitation or reduction objectives for the second commitment period under the Kyoto Protocol, 8 May 2012
Stoltenberg et al (2009) New policy platform for the red-green coalition Government Press release, Press release 7.10.2009, No.: 156/09
Norway (2009) AWG-KP - Submission by Norway, 20 February 2009, FCCC/KP/AWG/2009/MISC.1
Targets for 2020 were calculated from the most recent national inventory submissions (2012).
While Norway intends to become a carbon neutral nation, only part (two-thirds) of the cuts in total emissions by 2020 would be made domestically and would include their LULUCF sector, which currently is a large sink. We assume emissions excluding LULUCF decrease to 80-95% below 1990 by 2050.
Norway has stated that they will maintain 1990 as their historic reference level for forest management.