Russia pledged to reduce emissions by 15% to 25% relative to 1990 emissions by 2020. This is rated Inadequate, since their commitments by 2020 are above expected BAU projections1 which represent a development without additional measures after 2009 until 2020. According to our analysis, the currently implemented policies will lead to a 25% lower emission level in 2020 than the pledge level.
The Russian Federation pledged in the Copenhagen accord a reduction of 15 to 25% relative to 1990 emissions by 2020. Their commitments by 2020 are above BAU projections. LULUCF crediting based on presently available, but incomplete data provides a large increase to the allowed emission limits in 2020. Without LULUCF credits, even the 25% reduction target will leave Russia's emissions above the BAU range.
Russia’s Kyoto target for the first commitment period is 0% relative to 1990 emission levels, which is also above BAU emissions and led to a surplus of 6 GtCO2e for the first commitment period under the Kyoto Protocol.
Currently implemented policies will lead to emissions of 2,539 MtCO2e (excluding LULUCF) in 2020 and 3,017 MtCO2e in 2030. This represents a decrease of emissions from 1990 levels of 24% in 2020 and 10% in 2030. Emissions from land use play an important part in Russia's inventory. If these were taken into account, emissions including LULUCF would be 27% lower, at 1,752 MtCO2e in 2020, assuming the same share of LULUCF as in 2011. Considering the uncertainties around the LULUCF accounting, the additional effect is questionable and depends on policy interventions in the future.
Emissions in Russia dropped after 1990, with a historic low of just below 2 GtCO2e in 1998 - down 40% from 1990 levels. Since then emissions have increased steadily, experiencing only a small impact from the financial crisis, and are expected to continue on the same trend until 2030.
Russia’s climate policy environment has a clear focus towards energy production and demand. Current energy efficiency legislation sets targets for energy intensity (reduce energy intensity of GDP in 2020 by 40% from 2007 value) and provides a basic framework for reducing energy consumption. Most of the detailed policy measures in that policy area, like building codes and heat efficiency laws are outdated (before 2003).
Policy support for introducing renewable technologies for electricity generation are compared to its potential low. The targets set by the State Policy of Energy Efficiency were already achieved in 2010 and therefore no additional reduction effect was quantified.
The most recent piece of legislation that will have a mitigation effect is a government decree to reduce flaring from natural gas production. This sets a 5% limit for gas flaring for the year 2012 and subsequent years with fines imposed if this threshold is exceeded or there is no measurement equipment in place.
Targets for 2020 were calculated from the most recent national inventory submissions (CRF, 2013).
We calculated the Russian Federation's LULUCF accounting quantities in 2020 for afforestation, reforestation and deforestation using the current Kyoto rules. For forest management the reference level is the 1990 carbon budget.
The current trend projections are based on the World Energy Outlook 2012 Current Policy scenario projections for CO2 only until 2030, (IEA, 2012) the US EPA non-CO2 (US EPA, 2012) emission projections until 2030, Edgar for non-CO2 (JRC/PBL 2012) and inventory data submitted to the UNFCCC until with the last historic data year being 2011 (CRF, 2013). The reduction from limiting flaring is based on projections for gas production of the BP energy outlook (BP, 2013), and IEA data for historical levels.
BP (2013), BP energy outlook
CRF (2013). UNFCCC AWG-KP Submissions 2013. Common Reporting Format.
IEA (2012) World Energy Outlook 2012. International Energy Agency. Paris
JRC/PBL (2012) Edgar Version 4.2 FT2010. Joint Research Centre of the European Commission/PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency.
Russian Federation (2010a). Pledge of the Russian Federation to the Copenhagen Accord. Compiled in: Compilation of economy-wide emission reduction targets to be implemented by Parties included in Annex I to the Convention, UNFCCC (2011).
Russian Federation (2009a). Further elaboration of the options, elements and issues contained in annex IV to document FCCC/KP/AWG/2008/3 and annex III to document FCCC/KP/AWG/2008/5, including on which proposals could address cross-cutting issues, and how, 17 February 2009
Russian Federation (2009b). Submission to the Ad-Hoc Working Group on Further Commitments for Annex I Parties under the Kyoto Protocol (AWG-KP): Data on forest management , 27 November 2009
Russian Federation (2002). Third National Communication of the Russian Federation, Moscow, 2002.
US EPA (2012). Global Mitigation of Non-CO2 Greenhouse Gases, Washington, D.C., USA.
1 BAU projections are mainly based on growth rates from the IEA's projections in the World Energy Outlook 2009. We use these to compare to the pledges, as they reflect policies in place before Copenhagen pledges were made, but not additional policies implemented since.