Ukraine pledged a target of a 20% emissions reduction by 2020 compared to 1990 levels. This target is rated as ‘inadequate’, since their commitments by 2020 are above business-as-usual projections. With current implemented policies Ukraine will meets its pledge.
The Ukraine submitted a QELRO level of 76 for the second commitment period of the Kyoto Protocol. This represents a reduction of average annual emissions in the period of 2013 to 2020 of 16% below base year emissions. The target is conditional to full carry-over and no "cancellation or any limitation on use of this legitimately acquired sovereign property."
The Doha amendment limit targets for the second commitment period to the average historic emissions 2008-20101. The Ukraine is the country most affected by this rule, which leads to a Kyoto pathway almost 310 MtCO2e/yr lower than the direct translation of their target for the period 2012-2020.
Ukraine's Kyoto target for the current commitment period is 0% below 1990.
The pledge under the Convention of a reduction of 20% below 1990 by 2020 is a conditional pledge based on agreed range of emission reductions for Annex I parties, Ukraine’s status as an economy in transition, the flexible mechanisms, 1990 as base year and to be allowed to continue to carry over surplus AAUs (Article 3.13). Ukraine’s internationally pledged emission level of 700 MtCO2e (20% below 1990 levels) for 2020 is on the upper limit of BAU emission projections (755 MtCO2e from the 5th National Communication).
Currently implemented policies are expected to lead to an emission level of 626 MtCO2e in 2020 and 1,127 MtCO2e in 2030 excluding LULUCF. Following the trend of LULUCF emissions in the last 10 years, we can expect no additional reduction from the sector in 2020.
Between 1990 and 2000 emissions in the Ukraine dropped by 57% from 930 MtCO2e to 396 MtCO2e. From 2001 to 2007 emissions started to increase again moderately to a level of 436 MtCO2e or 53% below 1990 , then dropped sharply again during the financial crisis in 2009. Since then emissions have increased by almost 5% annually.
In 2008, Ukraine introduced a feed-in-scheme with fixed prices, the so called "green" tariff for electricity. The green tariff also guarantees grid connectivity to all renewable power generated from the project. The feed-in tariffs are relatively high with 42 c€/kWh for solar PV and 11 c€/kWh on average for wind. In 2012, the tariffs have been updated and adjusted to the market levels. The amendment also included the introduction of obligatory "local content" rates expressed in percentage. The "local content" rate relates to a certain ratio of elements used in building renewable energy plants on the territory of Ukraine that must be manufactured in the country. This could be a barrier for implementation, since the additional burden to use local suppliers that might be more expensive could lead to decreased demand.
We expect that this updated regulation will lead to about 12% renewable electricity in 2020, taking into account implementation barriers. The share of renewable electricity was 7.5% in 2009, almost completely from hydro, which is also supported by the feed-in tariff from 2012 onward.
In the context of energy supply, Ukraine updated in 2013 its energy strategy until 2030. The strategy set new targets for different energy carriers such as electricity generation from renewable energy and nuclear. However, since there are no clear supporting policies discussed except the feed-in tariff, this strategy is not further quantified here.
The national policy scenario till 2020 of the last three National communications includes some energy efficiency measures and is line with the target (Government of Ukraine, 2009b).
Targets for 2020 were calculated from the most recent national inventory submissions (CRF 2013).
We calculated Ukraine's LULUCF accounting quantities for the first commitment period (2008-2012) for afforestation, reforestation and deforestation using the current Kyoto rules. The Ukraine has submitted information on their forest reference level which is equal to their 1990 forest management emissions and removals.
The current policy scenarios is based on the national inventory submitted to UNFCCC for historical data, National Communication projections (Government of Ukraine, 2009) for the policy scenario till 2020 and calculations as prepared for Roelfsema et al. (2013) based on IEA energy balances (IEA 2012) for the effect of the feed-in scheme.
The national policy scenario was available, however, detailed information is not given. The feed-in scheme was updated in 2013 after publication of the policy scenario, so changes to this policy are not included in the policy scenario.
CRF (2013). UNFCCC AWG-KP Submissions 2013. Common Reporting Format.
IEA (2012). Energy balances. International Energy Agency. Paris.
Government of Ukraine (2010). Ukraine's pledge to the Copenhagen Accord. Compiled in: Compilation of economy-wide emission reduction targets to be implemented by Parties included in Annex I to the Convention, UNFCCC (2011).
Government of Ukraine (2009a). Submissions by Parties, FCCC/KP/AWG/2009/MISC1/, contribution of Annex I Parties, individually or jointly, to the scale of emission reductions to be achieved by Annex I Parties in aggregate.
Government of Ukraine (2009b). 5th National Communication.
Roelfsema et al. (2013). Assessment of climate and energy policies of major emitting countries. PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency. Pub No. 1096.
1 This is part of the Doha decisions and constitutes part of the amendments to the Kyoto Protocol. Amendments only come into effect once they are ratified by Parties.