Tracking INDCs

Assessment of mitigation contributions to the Paris Agreement

In preparation for the adoption of the Paris Agreement in December 2015 Governments “in a position to do so” were to submit an “intended nationally determined contribution” (INDC). 

State of Play: 15 December 2015

Submitted to UNFCCC: 160 submissions, reflecting 187 countries (including the European Union member states), and covering around 95% of global emissions in 2010 (excluding LULUCF) and 98% of global population. A further 3% of global emissions are coming from international aviation and maritime transport. Almost 1% of global emissions are covered by countries that are not Parties to the UNFCCC.

Completed CAT assessments: 32 INDCs reflecting 59 countries analysed, covering 81.3% of global emissions in 2010. [1]

Not assessed: As CAT resources are limited we cannot assess all INDCs and 128 submitted INDCs are not assessed. [2]

The Climate Action Tracker will provide an up-to-date assessment and rating of submitted INDCs with a focus on:

During the course of 2015 we will compare INDCs and currently implemented policies with:

Periodically the CAT will assess the global consequences of the INDCs for global warming and whether the emissions gap between INDCs, policies and the emissions levels needed to limit warming below 2°C. The INDCs can be adjusted and strengthened if they are—in aggregate—insufficient to meet the globally agreed long-term goal of limiting warming below 2°C.  

INDCs assessed by the Climate Action Tracker, by order of submission:

 Flag Switzerland

Switzerland: We rate Switzerland “medium”. Switzerland put forward a target goal to reduce greenhouse gases emissions by 50% below 1990 by 2030. In addition, Switzerland communicated an emissions reduction target of 35% for 2025.

 Flag EU

European Union: We rate the EU “medium”. The EU put forward a binding, economy-wide target goal to reduce greenhouse gases emissions by at least 40% domestic below 1990 by 2030.

 Flag Norway

Norway: We rate Norway “medium”. Norway put forward a binding, economy-wide target goal to reduce greenhouse gases emissions by at least 40% below 1990 by 2030.

 Flag Mexico

Mexico: We rate Mexico “medium”. Mexico put forward an unconditional target of 22% greenhouse gas reductions below baseline in 2030, starting to decrease emissions in 2026. Conditionally to support and certain elements included in a global agreement, Mexico offers to reduce up to 36% below baseline. Additionally, Mexico wants to reduce black carbon emissions.

 Flag USA

USA: We rate USA “medium”. The USA put forward the unconditional target to reduce economy wide emissions by 26% to 28% below 2005 domestically.

Gabon: We do not rate Gabon's INDC due to uncertainty about the level of emissions and abatement from the LULUCF sector, which accounts for 92% of Gabon's projected emissions in 2025. Gabon has pledged at least a 50% reduction relative to business-as-usual emissions by 2025, which corresponds to a 3% increase in overall emissions relative to 2000 levels, or a 72% increase excluding LULUCF emissions. A rating of the contribution excluding LULUCF would be “medium".

Russian flag

Russian Federation: We rate the Russian Federation “inadequate”. Russia put forward a target which we interpret as a reduction of only 6–11% below 1990 given its intention of “making maximum use of [...] forests” and making this target conditional upon a legally binding committment by all emitters.

Canadian flag

Canada: We rate Canada “inadequate”. Canada put forward an economy-wide target to reduce emissions by 30% below 2005 levels in 2030. We estimate this target is a reduction of 21% below 2005 levels of emissions excluding LULUCF, which is equivalent to 2% below 1990 levels.

Canadian flag

Morocco: We rate Morocco “sufficient”. Morocco put forward an economy-wide target to reduce emissions by 13% below business-as-usual (BAU) in 2030. Conditional to financial support and an international agreement for post-2020, Morocco offers to reduce emissions by 32% below BAU in 2030.

 Flag China

Ethiopia: We rate Ethiopia “sufficient”. It has put forward the goal to limit greenhouse net gas emissions including emissions or removals from land-use, land-use change and forestry (LULUCF) to 145 MtCO2e by 2030. This represents a reduction of at least 64% below the Ethiopian business-as-usual (BAU) scenario by 2030, where net emissions are projected to reach 400 MtCO2e.

 Flag China

China: We rate China "medium with inadequate carbon intensity target". China has put forward a target to reduce carbon intensity by 60% to 65% by 2030 below 2005 levels, increase the share of non-fossil primary energy to 20%, increase th forest stock and peak by 2030 or earlier.

 Flag South Korea

South Korea: We rate South Korea ‘”inadequate”. South Korea has put forward a target to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 37% below business-as-usual (BAU) by 2030. South Korea will use carbon credits from international market mechanisms to achieve parts of this target.


Singapore: We rate Singapore Inadequate. Singapore put forward a target to reduce its greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions intensity (total GHG emissions per unit of GDP) by 36% below 2005 levels by 2030 and to peak its total GHG emissions around the same time. The targets will result in an increase in emissions by 58% above 2010 levels in 2030 (equivalent to an increase of 176% above 1994 levels).

 Flag South Korea

New Zealand: We rate New Zealand ‘”inadequate”. The INDC target to reduce GHG emissions excl. LULUCF by 11% below 1990 by 2030 is likely to result in an increase in GHG emissions excl. LULUCF of up to 11% above 1990 levels by 2030, given the approaches New Zealand is proposing to use to account for Kyoto surplus emission allowances and forestry credits.

 Flag Japan

Japan: We rate Japan “inadequate”. Japan proposes to reduce emissions by 26% below 2013 emission levels by 2030. This corresponds to 18% below 1990 levels.


Australia: We rate Australia "inadequate". Australia put forwad a target GHG emissions by 26–28% from 2005 levels including land-use, land-use change and forestry (LULUCF) by 2030. After accounting for LULUCF, this target is equivalent to a range of around 5% below to 5% above 1990 levels of GHG emissions excluding LULUCF in the year 2030.

 Flag South Africa

Indonesia: We rate Indonesia "inadequate". Indonesia put forward an unconditional 2030 GHG emissions reduction target  of 29% below business-as-usual (BAU) including LULUCF emissions and a conditional 41% reduction below BAU by 2030 (with sufficient international support).

 Flag South Africa

South Africa: We rate South Africa "inadequate". South Africa proposes to reduce its GHG emissions levels to between 398–614 MtCO2e over 2025–2030. After accounting for LULUCF, this target is equivalent to emissions of 20–82% above 1990 levels excl. LULUCF. 

 Flag Kazakhstan

Kazakhstan: We rate Kazakhstan “medium”. Kazakhstan proposed an unconditional target to reduce GHG emissions incl. LLUCF by 15% below 1990 levels by 2030. This target is equivalent to 10% below 1990 levels excl. LULUCF. 

 Flag Brazil

Brazil: We rate Brazil "medium”. Brazil proposed the emissions reduction target of 37% for 2025 below 2005. Brazil also proposes reaching a share of 45% renewables in the total energy mix by 2030. Based on this intention, the CAT estimates the INDC will result in GHG emissions (excl. LULUCF) increasing by about 36% above 2005 levels by 2025.

 Flag Peru

Peru: We rate Peru “medium”. Peru’s unconditional INDC target is to reduce emissions by 20% of BAU levels by 2030. This target is equivalent to a 114–132% increase in GHG emissions from 1990 levels excl. LULUCF by 2030. 

 Flag Chile

Chile: We rate Chile “inadequate”. Chile’s unconditional INDC target is a 30% reduction of GHG emissions-intensity of GDP below 2007 levels by 2030, which is equivalent to 222% above 1990 levels or 75% above 2010 levels excl. LULUCF. 

 Flag Ukraine

Ukraine: We rate Ukraine “inadequate”. Ukraine proposed to reduce GHG emissions incl. LLUCF by at least 40% below 1990 levels by 2030. This target is equivalent to -41% below 1990 levels excl. LULUCF. 

 Flag Turkey

Turkey: We rate Turkey “inadequate”. Turkey put forward an economy-wide target to reduce emissions by 21% below business-as-usual in 2030. To achieve its target, Turkey plans to use carbon credits from international market mechanisms in a cost effective manner and in accordance with the relevant rules and standards.

 Flag Gambia

The Gambia: We rate The Gambia “Sufficient”. The Gambia is offering to reduce emissions excl. LULUCF by 0.079 MtCO2e in 2025 unilaterally, with an additional 1.34 MtCO2e, conditional on the availability of international financial and technical support.

Bhutan: We rate Bhutan „sufficient”. The country aims to maintain its greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions below its total carbon sink from land use, land use change and forestry (LULUCF). We assessed and rated the INDC based on rising energy and industry emissions, which will not be compensated by the large natural carbon sink resulting from Bhutan’s forests.

 Flag Argentina

Argentina: We rate Argentina “inadequate”. Argentina’s unconditional target is to reduce GHG emissions incl. LULUCF by 15% below its BAU scenario by 2030. This target is equivalent to a 60% increase above 2010 levels or 128% above 1990 levels excl. LULUCF. 

 Flag Costa Rica

Costa Rica: We rate Costa Rica “sufficient”. Costa Rica put forward a target to an unconditional target to keep net greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions below 9.37 MtCO2e emissions by 2030 including Land Use, Land Use Change and Forestry (LULUCF). The INDC translates into emissions (excl. LULUCF) returning to 2010 levels by 2030.

 Flag India

India: We rate India “medium”. India has put forward the targets to lower the emissions intensity of GDP by 33% to 35% by 2030 below 2005 levels, to increase the share of non-fossil based power generation capacity to 40% of installed electric power capacity by 2030, and to create an additional (cumulative) carbon sink of 2.5–3 GtCO2e through additional forest and tree cover by 2030.

 Flag Philippines

Philippines: We rate the Philippines “medium”. The Philippines put forward a conditional greenhouse gas reduction target of 70% below business as usual (BAU) levels by 2030, including LULUCF. CAT estimates that this could, at best, result in emissions excluding LULUCF reverting to 1990 levels.

 Flag UAE

UAEWe rate the United Arab Emirates “inadequate”. The UAE describes qualitatively a number of measures targeting all sectors of the economy, emphasizing that it seeks to increase the share of clean energy to 24% of the total energy mix by 2021. Our current policy projection shows that the emissions would still be in the inadequate range in 2030.    

 Flag Saudi Arabia

Saudi ArabiaWe rate Saudi Arabia “Inadequate”. Saudi Arabia put forward a target goal to reduce 130 MtCO2e annually by 2030 if the consequences of the Paris agreement do not impact its capacity to export oil. If it does, it reserves its right to reduce its ambition between 2016-2020.

[1] The percentage is calculated excl. emissions from land use, land use change and forestry (LULUCF). If LULUCF were included, the share would be 76%

[2] INDCs NOT assessed by the Climate Action Tracker: Afghanistan, Albania, Algeria, Andorra, Angola, Antigua and Barbuda, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Bangladesh, Bahamas, Barbados, Bahrain, Belarus, Belize, Benin, Bolivia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Botswana, Burkina Faso, Burundi, Brunei, Cambodia, Cameroon, Cape Verde, Central African Republic, Chad, Colombia, Comoros, Congo (Democratic Republic of the), Congo (Republic of the), Cote d'ivoire, Cook Islands, Cuba, Djibouti, Dominica, Dominican Republic, Ecuador, El Salvador, Egypt, Equatorial Guinea, Eritrea, Fiji, Georgia, Ghana, Grenada, Guatemala, Guinea, Guinea-Bissau, Guyana, Haiti, Honduras, Iceland, Iran, Iraq, Israel, Jamaica, Jordan, Kenya, Kiribati, Kyrgyzstan, Kuwait, Lao (People's Democratic Republic), Lebanon, Lesotho, Liberia, Liechtenstein, Macedonia, Madagascar, Malaysia, Malawi, Maldives, Mali, Marshall Islands, Mauritania, Mauritius, Micronesia, Moldova, Monaco, Mongolia, Montenegro, Mozambique, Myanmar, Namibia, Nauru, Niger, Nigeria, Niue, Oman, Palau, Pakistan, Paraguay, Papua new guinea, Paraguay, Qatar, Rwanda, Samoa, Sao tome and Principe, Senegal, Serbia, Seychelles, Sierra Leone, Solomon Islands, Sri Lanka, Somalia, Sudan, Suriname, Saint Lucia, Saint Vincent and Grenadines, Swaziland, Tajikistan, Tanzania, Thailand, Togo, Tnga, Trinidad and Tobago, Tunisia, Turkmenistan, Tuvalu, Uganda, Uruguay, Vanuatu, Vietnam, Yemen, Zambia, Zimbabwe.