Current policy projections

Current Trend - policy scenarios

We focus on projections of emissions under implemented policies through 2030. Depending on the data availability, we applied one of two approaches to evaluate current policies:

(1) We used existing, country-specific policy scenarios from literature and checked available scenarios for completeness with respect to sectors, gases and covered policies. Where necessary we combine or compare those with other scenarios (e.g. the IEA’s World Energy Outlook (WEO) (IEA 2014)). Where no complete data set including all sectors and gases were available, we combined different emissions scenarios, for example, energy-related emissions, as reported in the WEO, were combined with data on non-CO2 emissions from the United States Environmental Protection Agency (2012) and data from the Emissions Database for Global Atmospheric Research (EDGAR) (EC-JRC/PBL 2013) to ensure complete coverage of all emissions sources.

or

(2) Bottom-up quantification of selected policies (with the policies most relevant in terms of potential GHG emissions or of high political interest selected), focusing on policies already being implemented or policies where there is a high degree of certainty that it will be implemented in the near future. Where considered relevant, strong implementation barriers such as for example political resistance or technical difficulties are taken into account in projecting the effect of specific policies or targets, by assuming that only a fraction of the target is achieved.

The two approaches can be combined if existing scenarios don’t include most recent policies.

References:

EC-JRC/PBL (2013). EDGAR version 4.2 FT2010. http://edgar.jrc.ec.europa.eu/

IEA (2014). World Energy Outlook 2014. International Energy Agency, Paris.