We rate Australia’s NDC target for 2030 “Insufficient”. The “Insufficient” rating indicates that Australia’s climate commitment in 2017 is not consistent with holding warming to below 2°C, let alone limiting it to 1.5°C as required under the Paris Agreement, and is instead consistent with warming between 2°C and 3°C. If all countries were to follow Australia’s approach, warming would reach over 2°C and up to 3°C. This means Australia’s climate commitment is at the least stringent end of what would be a fair share of global effort, and is not consistent with the Paris Agreement’s 1.5˚C limit, unless other countries make much deeper reductions and comparably greater effort.
The CAT ratings are based on climate commitments in NDCs. If the CAT were to rate Australia’s projected emissions levels in 2017 under current policies, we would rate Australia “Highly insufficient,” indicating that Australia’s current policies in 2017 are not consistent with holding warming to below 2°C, let alone limiting it to 1.5°Cas required under the Paris Agreement, and are instead consistent with warming between 3°C and 4°C: if all countries were to follow Australia’sapproach, warming could reach over 3°C and up to 4°C. This means Australia’s current policies are not in line with any interpretation of a “fair” approach to the former 2°C goal, let alone the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C limit.
Further information about the risks and impacts associated with the temperature levels of each of the categories is available here.