The 2020 unconditional NDC provides improvements in transparency, ambition and governance. The submission of the new targets resulted in an upgrade of its current rating, from “Highly Insufficient” to “Insufficient.” The “Insufficient” rating indicates that Chile’s updated unconditional climate commitment in 2030 is inconsistent with holding warming to below 2°C, let alone limiting it to 1.5°C as required under the Paris Agreement, and is instead consistent with warming between 2°C and 3°C. If all countries were to follow Chile’s approach, warming would reach over 2°C and up to 3°C. This means Chile’s climate commitment is at the least stringent end of what would be a fair share of global effort, and is not consistent with the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C limit, unless other countries make much deeper reductions and comparably greater effort.
If the 2020 NDC’s conditional target– a reduction of up to 45% in net emissions by 2030, subject to international support– were made unconditional, depending on the assumptions made, we would rate it either “Insufficient” or “2°C compatible“.
It is worth highlighting that most effort sharing approaches lead to similar levels of emissions allowances for Chile. The upper (less stringent) end of the “Insufficient” range is determined by effort sharing approaches focusing on staged emissions reductions. To be in line with the most stringent approaches, which focus on capability, Chile would need even further emissions reductions.
If the CAT were to rate Chile’s projected emissions levels in 2030 under current policies, we would rate Chile “Highly insufficient.” Further, if we were to rate Chile’s planned policies, which in comparison with current policies include a full coal-phase out by 2040 assuming linear retirement of capacities, these would still be rated “Insufficient.”
Further information about the risks and impacts associated with the temperature levels of each of the categories is available here.