We rate Ethiopia “2°C compatible.” While Ethiopia’s Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) falls in the "1.5°C Paris Agreement compatible" range, we rate Ethiopia "2°C compatible," given the conditionality of its target.
Ethiopia could be rated "1.5°C Paris Agreement compatible", if its target was unconditional. Such a contribution is in line with most effort sharing approaches. Some approaches would allow a further increase of absolute emission levels, mostly because Ethiopia has very low historical and current per capita emissions. Approaches that focus on the Human Development indicator as an indication of capability would require more stringent reductions.
The “2°C compatible” rating indicates that Ethiopia’s climate commitment in 2030 is within the range of what is considered to be a fair share of global effort but is not consistent with the Paris Agreement. This approach requires other countries to make deeper reductions and comparably greater effort to limit warming to 1.5°C. If all countries were to follow Ethiopia’s approach, warming could be held below—but not well below—2°C, and hence would still be too high to be consistent with the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C temperature limit.
The CAT ratings are based on climate commitments in NDCs. If the CAT were to rate Ethiopia’s projected emissions levels under current policies, we would rate Ethiopia “1.5°C Paris Agreement compatible,” indicating that Ethiopia’s climate commitment is consistent with holding warming well below 2°C, and limiting warming to 1.5°C. Ethiopia’s current policies do not require other countries to make comparably deeper reductions or greater effort, and are in the most stringent part of its Fair Share range.
Further information about the risks and impacts associated with the temperature levels of each of the categories is available here.