We rate the EU's climate commitments (NDC) as "Insufficient". The “Insufficient” rating indicates that the EU's climate commitment in 2030 is not consistent with holding warming to below 2°C, let alone limiting it to 1.5°C as required under the Paris Agreement, and is instead consistent with warming between 2°C and 3°C. If all countries were to follow the EU’s approach, warming would reach over 2°C and up to 3°C. This means the EU’s climate commitment is at the least stringent end of what would be a fair share of global effort, and is not consistent with the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C limit, unless other countries make much deeper reductions and with comparably greater effort.
To assess the EU's current policy pathways we used two scenarios, each falling into a different category. The first of these two scenarios, prepared by the European Environment Agency, reflects the projections by the member states by early 2019. These projections reflect the impact of policies adopted both, at the European and the national level. Combined, these national projections result in emissions reduction of 32% by 2030 below 1990 levels. An emissions level in 2030 of around 3.8 GtCO2 means that the implemented policies would result in “Highly Insufficient” rating.
We complement this scenario with the EUCO3232.5 Scenario based on emissions modelling, which quantifies the impact of the legislation adopted at the European level but not necessarily yet implemented by the member states. This concerns especially the new renewable energy and energy efficiency goals of 32% and 32.5% respectively. According to this scenario EU’s emissions in 2030 would amount to over 2.9 GtCO2 or 48% below 1990 level, resulting in an “Insufficient” rating.
The difference between these two scenarios reflects the need for an accelerated and effective implementation of the European legislation at the national level.
For further information about the risks and impacts associated with the temperature levels of each of the categories click here.