We rate the EU27+UK NDC as "Insufficient". The “Insufficient” rating indicates that the EU's climate commitment in 2030 is not consistent with holding warming to below 2°C, let alone limiting it to 1.5°C as required under the Paris Agreement, and is instead consistent with warming between 2°C and 3°C. If all countries were to follow the EU’s approach, warming would reach over 2°C and up to 3°C. This means the EU’s climate commitment is at the least stringent end of what would be a fair share of global effort, and is not consistent with the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C limit, unless other countries make much deeper reductions and with comparably greater effort.
The CAT ratings are based on NDCs. If the CAT were to rate the EU27+UK’s projected emissions levels in 2030 under current policies, we would rate the EU27+UK as ‘Highly insufficient’ if it follows the upper bound of the projection and ‘Insufficient’ if it follows the lower bound. While COVID-19 will cause emissions to fall in the near-term, the economic impacts of the pandemic will likely have little effect on 2030 emission levels and thus would not change this picture.
For further information about the risks and impacts associated with the temperature levels of each of the categories click here.