We rate the EU's climate commitments (NDC) as "Insufficient".The “Insufficient” rating indicates thatthe EU's climate commitment in 2030 is not consistent with holding warming to below 2°C, let alone limiting it to 1.5°C as required under the Paris Agreement, and is instead consistent with warming between 2°C and 3°C. If all countries were to follow the EU’s approach, warming would reach over 2°C and up to 3°C. This means the EU’s climate commitment is at the least stringent end of what would be a fair share of global effort, and is not consistent with the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C limit, unless other countries make much deeper reductions and with comparably greater effort.
To assess the EU's current policy pathways we used two scenarios, each falling into a different category. The scenario by the European Environment Agency reflecting the policies adopted by the member states by early 2018 for Cyprus and Ireland, and by early 2017 for all remaining EU member states, would result in a “Highly insufficient” rating.
A more recent scenario based on emissions modelling, as opposed to national reporting, which also reflects the quantification of the recent political agreements on higher energy efficiency and renewable energy targets, results in an “Insufficient” rating. The difference between these two scenarios reflects the need for an accelerated and effective implementation of the European legislation at the national level.
For further information about the risks and impacts associated with the temperature levels of each of the categories click here.