We rate India’s 2030 NDC “2°C compatible.”
The “2°C compatible” rating indicates that India’s climate commitment in 2030 is within the range of what is considered to be a fair share of global effort but is not consistent with the Paris Agreement. This approach requires other countries to make deeper reductions and comparably greater effort to limit warming to 1.5°C. If all countries were to follow India’s approach, warming could be held below—but not well below—2°C, and hence would still be too high to be consistent with the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C temperature limit. The 2°C compatible category refers to the 2°C goal adopted by the Copenhagen Agreement in 2009, now replaced by the 1.5°C limit in the Paris Agreement, providing a historical reference point and bridge to the Paris Agreement compatible category rating.
If the CAT were to rate India’s NDC based on its conditional target of 40% non-fossil generation, it would still fall into the same “2°C compatible” category. If the CAT were to rate India’s projected emissions levels in 2030 under current policies, they would be rated “1.5°C Paris Agreement compatible” based on the consideration of a fair share of global effort. However, domestic emissions need to peak and start reducing, with international support, to be consistent with the Paris Agreement.
Further information about the risks and impacts associated with the temperature levels of each of the categories.