We rate Kenya’s NDC “2°C compatible”. The “2°C compatible” rating indicates that Kenya’s climate commitment in 2030 is within the range of what is considered to be a fair share of global effort but is not consistent with the Paris Agreement. This approach requires other countries to make deeper reductions and comparably greater effort to limit warming to 1.5°C. If all countries were to follow Kenya’s approach, warming could be held below—but not well below—2°C, and hence would still be too high to be consistent with the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C temperature limit. The 2°C compatible category refers to the 2°C goal adopted by the Copenhagen Agreement in 2009, now replaced by the 1.5°C limit in the Paris Agreement, providing a historical reference point and bridge to the Paris Agreement compatible category rating.
Kenya’s climate commitment in 2030 falls into the upper end of the “1.5°C Paris Agreement Compatible” category. Given the commitment is conditional to support, CAT downgraded the rating to “2°C compatible”.
Kenya’s CAT rating is based on the emission reduction commitments put forward in its NDC.
If the CAT were to rate Kenya’s projected emission levels in 2030, the rating would be “1.5°C compatible”, indicating that Kenya’s projections are consistent with holding warming well below 2°C, and limiting warming to 1.5°C. Kenya’s current policies do not require other countries to make comparably deeper reductions or greater effort and are in the most stringent part of its Fair Share range.
Further information about the risks and impacts associated with the temperature levels of each of the categories is available here.