We rate Mexico’s mitigation targets “Insufficient.” The “Insufficient” rating indicates that Mexico’s climate commitment in 2030 is not consistent with holding warming to below 2°C, let alone limiting it to 1.5°C as required under the Paris Agreement, and is instead consistent with warming between 2°C and 3°C. If all countries were to follow Mexico’s approach, warming would reach over 2°C and up to 3°C. This means Mexico’s climate commitment is at the least stringent end of what would be a fair share of global effort, and is not consistent with the Paris Agreement’s 1.5˚C limit, unless other countries make much deeper reductions and comparably greater effort.
Current Policy Projections
The CAT ratings are based on climate commitments in NDCs. If the CAT were to rate Mexico’s projected emissions levels in 2030 under current policies, we would rate Mexico “Highly Insufficient,” indicating that Mexico’s current policies in 2030 are not consistent with holding warming to below 2°C, let alone limiting it to 1.5°C as required under the Paris Agreement, and are instead consistent with warming between 3°C and 4°C: if all countries were to follow Mexico’s approach, warming could reach over 3°C and up to 4°C. This means Mexico’s current policies are not in line with any interpretation of a “fair” approach to the former 2°C goal, let alone the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C limit.
For Mexico, the individual effort sharing categories spread over large ranges of emissions allowances, and there are no effort sharing categories that stand out and require specifically stringent or lenient reductions for Mexico. This reflects the fact that Mexico’s per capita emissions and wealth are close to the global average.
Further information about the risks and impacts associated with the temperature levels of each of the categories.