Norway

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Critically Insufficient4°C+ World

NDCs with this rating fall well outside of a country’s “fair share” range and are not at all consistent with holding warming to below 2°C let alone with the Paris Agreement’s stronger 1.5°C limit. If all government NDCs were in this range, warming would exceed 4°C.

Highly insufficient< 4°C World

NDCs with this rating fall outside of a country’s “fair share” range and are not at all consistent with holding warming to below 2°C let alone with the Paris Agreement’s stronger 1.5°C limit. If all government NDCs were in this range, warming would reach between 3°C and 4°C.

Insufficient< 3°C World

NDCs with this rating are in the least stringent part of a country’s “fair share” range and not consistent with holding warming below 2°C let alone with the Paris Agreement’s stronger 1.5°C limit. If all government NDCs were in this range, warming would reach over 2°C and up to 3°C.

2°C Compatible< 2°C World

NDCs with this rating are consistent with the 2009 Copenhagen 2°C goal and therefore fall within a country’s “fair share” range, but are not fully consistent with the Paris Agreement long term temperature goal. If all government NDCs were in this range, warming could be held below, but not well below, 2°C and still be too high to be consistent with the Paris Agreement 1.5°C limit.

1.5°C Paris Agreement Compatible< 1.5°C World

This rating indicates that a government’s NDCs in the most stringent part of its “fair share” range: it is consistent with the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C limit.

Role model<< 1.5°C World

This rating indicates that a government’s NDC is more ambitious than what is considered a “fair” contribution: it is more than consistent with the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C limit.

Overview

The Storting (Norwegian Parliament) passed a Climate Law on 16 June 2017 that establishes legally binding emissions reduction targets for 2030 and 2050. The law came into effect on 1 January 2018 and aims for Norway to achieve “carbon neutrality” by 2050, in quantitative terms - defined as a reduction in greenhouse gas emissions by 80–95% below 1990 emission levels (UNFCCC, 2018). This law has been complemented by an increased budget allocation to the Ministry of Climate and Environment of NOK 10.5 billion, an increase from 2017 of NOK 0.7 billion. Currently implemented policies are projected to decrease emissions by 6% in 2030 below 1990 levels – a far cry from Norway’s 2030 target of “at least 40%” and “Highly insufficient” , meaning currently implemented policies are not consistent with the Paris Agreement, and are instead consistent with warming between 3°C and 4°C:

Norway signed and ratified the Paris Agreement on 20 June 2016. Norway’s NDC includes a target of reducing GHG emissions by “at least 40%” below 1990 levels in 2030, thus aligning itself with the European Union’s target. The inclusion of emissions and removals from the land use, land use change and forestry (LULUCF) sector was made dependent on the EU’s approach to this issue.

We rate the unconditional NDC of Norway “Insufficient,” and hence not consistent with limiting warming below 2°C, let alone with the Paris Agreement’s stronger 1.5°C limit, unless other countries make much deeper reductions and comparably greater effort. The climate neutrality goal by 2030 would be rated “2° Paris compatible.” While Norway claims its NDC is “fair,” we consider it has been mistaken in the calculations it has used to arrive at this statement.