Norway

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Critically Insufficient4°C+ World

NDCs with this rating fall well outside of a country’s “fair share” range and are not at all consistent with holding warming to below 2°C let alone with the Paris Agreement’s stronger 1.5°C limit. If all government NDCs were in this range, warming would exceed 4°C.

Highly insufficient< 4°C World

NDCs with this rating fall outside of a country’s “fair share” range and are not at all consistent with holding warming to below 2°C let alone with the Paris Agreement’s stronger 1.5°C limit. If all government NDCs were in this range, warming would reach between 3°C and 4°C.

Insufficient< 3°C World

NDCs with this rating are in the least stringent part of a country’s “fair share” range and not consistent with holding warming below 2°C let alone with the Paris Agreement’s stronger 1.5°C limit. If all government NDCs were in this range, warming would reach over 2°C and up to 3°C.

2°C Compatible< 2°C World

NDCs with this rating are consistent with the 2009 Copenhagen 2°C goal and therefore fall within a country’s “fair share” range, but are not fully consistent with the Paris Agreement long term temperature goal. If all government NDCs were in this range, warming could be held below, but not well below, 2°C and still be too high to be consistent with the Paris Agreement 1.5°C limit.

1.5°C Paris Agreement Compatible< 1.5°C World

This rating indicates that a government’s NDCs in the most stringent part of its “fair share” range: it is consistent with the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C limit.

Role model<< 1.5°C World

This rating indicates that a government’s NDC is more ambitious than what is considered a “fair” contribution: it is more than consistent with the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C limit.

Pledge

The Copenhagen pledge, as well as NDC and long-term target were calculated from the most recent national inventory submissions (CRF, 2017).

While Norway intends to become a carbon neutral nation, only part of the cuts in total emissions would be made domestically and would include their LULUCF sector, which is currently a large sink. LULUCF removals are projected to slightly decline in 2030, reaching 21 MtCO2. In our analysis we assume that LULUCF emissions stay at this level until 2050. As a result, a carbon neutrality target (both the conditional NDC target in 2030 and long-term 2050 target) entails a pledge of 21 MtCO2.

Current policies

The current policy projections are based on Norway's third Biennial Report (Norwegian Ministry of Climate Change and Environment, 2018). Historical data is based on CRF 2017.