We rate the Philippines’ NDC “2°C compatible”.
The “2°C compatible” rating indicates that the Philippine’s climate commitment in 2030 is within the range of what is considered to be a fair share of global effort but is not consistent with the Paris Agreement. This approach requires other countries to make deeper reductions and comparably greater effort to limit warming to 1.5°C. If all countries were to follow the Philippines' approach, warming could be held below—but not well below—2°C, and hence would still be too high to be consistent with the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C temperature limit, a threshold the Philippines strongly fought for in 2015 during the Paris negotiations (Zahra Hirji, 2017).
Our rating of the Philippines is based on its conditional NDC of reducing GHG emissions by 70% below business-as-usual (BAU) levels by 2030. The Philippines’ BAU scenario, against which the NDC is to be measured, had not yet been published as of November 2019. For the quantification of the conditional NDC target, we thus apply the reduction target to the BAU as estimated by CAT and assume that emissions excluding LULUCF would also be reduced by 70% below a BAU. The Philippines has provided a more detailed description of the NDC targets during the revision of their NDC, however it still does not provide a BAU for sectoral emissions, which makes the sectoral contribution to achieving the targets unclear.
The conditional NDC target falls into the “1.5°C compatible” category. Given the conditional nature of the NDC target, we downgrade the target by one category to “2°C compatible.” The Philippines is currently revising its NDC, if the current draft target were to be submitted, and no unconditional target was submitted in addition, we would downgrade the rating to “Insufficient”. This target would fall into the “2°C compatible” category and be downgraded to “Insufficient” (assuming the revised NDC target is also conditional). Including such an unconditional target would be an important aspect of scaling up ambition.
If the CAT were to rate the Philippines’ projected emissions levels in 2030 under current policies, the Philippines would also be rated “2°C compatible.”
Further information about the risks and impacts associated with the temperature levels of each of the categories.