Turkey

Critically Insufficient4°C+
World
NDCs with this rating fall well outside of a country’s “fair share” range and are not at all consistent with holding warming to below 2°C let alone with the Paris Agreement’s stronger 1.5°C limit. If all government NDCs were in this range, warming would exceed 4°C. For sectors, the rating indicates that the target is consistent with warming of greater than 4°C if all other sectors were to follow the same approach.
Highly insufficient< 4°C
World
NDCs with this rating fall outside of a country’s “fair share” range and are not at all consistent with holding warming to below 2°C let alone with the Paris Agreement’s stronger 1.5°C limit. If all government NDCs were in this range, warming would reach between 3°C and 4°C. For sectors, the rating indicates that the target is consistent with warming between 3°C and 4°C if all other sectors were to follow the same approach.
Insufficient< 3°C
World
NDCs with this rating are in the least stringent part of a country’s “fair share” range and not consistent with holding warming below 2°C let alone with the Paris Agreement’s stronger 1.5°C limit. If all government NDCs were in this range, warming would reach over 2°C and up to 3°C. For sectors, the rating indicates that the target is consistent with warming over 2°C and up to 3°C if all other sectors were to follow the same approach.
2°C Compatible< 2°C
World
NDCs with this rating are consistent with the 2009 Copenhagen 2°C goal and therefore fall within a country’s “fair share” range, but are not fully consistent with the Paris Agreement long term temperature goal. If all government NDCs were in this range, warming could be held below, but not well below, 2°C and still be too high to be consistent with the Paris Agreement 1.5°C limit. For sectors, the rating indicates that the target is consistent with holding warming below, but not well below, 2°C if all other sectors were to follow the same approach.
1.5°C Paris Agreement Compatible< 1.5°C
World
This rating indicates that a government’s NDCs in the most stringent part of its “fair share” range: it is consistent with the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C limit. For sectors, the rating indicates that the target is consistent with the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C limit.
Role model<< 1.5°C
World
This rating indicates that a government’s NDC is more ambitious than what is considered a “fair” contribution: it is more than consistent with the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C limit. No “role model” rating has been developed for the sectors.

Summary table

Pledges and targets

Turkey submitted its INDC in 2015, with the aim of unconditionally reducing GHG emissions including LULUCF in 2030 by 21% below a BAU projection. The INDC submission provides the reference BAU projection (1175 MtCO2e, GWP AR4, including LULUCF) and indicates that the target emissions level is 929 MtCO2e (incl. LULUCF, based on GWP from AR4) in 2030 (The Republic of Turkey, 2015). Since we exclude LULUCF emissions in our rating methodology, we have excluded the LULUCFs emissions projected in 2030 from the “with measures scenario” in the 7th national communication, strictly equivalent to the INDC. The INDC target in 2030 equals 999 MtCO2e, excluding LULUCF emissions.

Turkey remains the only G20 country that has not yet ratified the Paris Agreement. Turkey is hoping for a differentiated treatment from the developed industrial Annex I countries that would allow Turkey to access international climate finance (Schneider, Scholar, Schneider, & Scholar, 2017). To this end, Germany and France - with the support of the U.N. and the World Bank - have submitted a financial package proposal to Turkey prior to the UN Climate Summit in September 2019. Although the government is reported to be analysing the package, no progress on this end has been reported so far (Hurriyet, 2019).

The BAU projection underlying the INDC target is reiterated and unchanged in Turkey’s 7th national communication and as well as in its Fourth Biennial report (Republic of Turkey Ministry of Environment and Urbanization, 2018a, 2019).

Turkey is on track to overachieve its INDC based on its current policies. If one were to recalculate its INDC based on current policies, it would be increased from 21% to 28-39% emissions reductions compared to BAU. Therefore, in updating its INDC Turkey will need to go beyond this level in order to be a true progression in scaling up climate action.

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