Turkey

Critically Insufficient4°C+
World
Commitments with this rating fall well outside the fair share range and are not at all consistent with holding warming to below 2°C let alone with the Paris Agreement’s stronger 1.5°C limit. If all government targets were in this range, warming would exceed 4°C.
Highly insufficient< 4°C
World
Commitments with this rating fall outside the fair share range and are not at all consistent with holding warming to below 2°C let alone with the Paris Agreement’s stronger 1.5°C limit. If all government targets were in this range, warming would reach between 3°C and 4°C.
Insufficient< 3°C
World
Commitments with this rating are in the least stringent part of their fair share range and not consistent with holding warming below 2°C let alone with the Paris Agreement’s stronger 1.5°C limit. If all government targets were in this range, warming would reach over 2°C and up to 3°C.
2°C Compatible< 2°C
World
Commitments with this rating are consistent with the 2009 Copenhagen 2°C goal and therefore fall within the country’s fair share range, but are not fully consistent with the Paris Agreement. If all government targets were in this range, warming could be held below, but not well below, 2°C and still be too high to be consistent with the Paris Agreement 1.5°C limit.
1.5°C Paris Agreement Compatible< 1.5°C
World
This rating indicates that a government’s efforts are in the most stringent part of its fair share range: it is consistent with the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C limit.
Role model<< 1.5°C
World
This rating indicates that a government’s efforts are more ambitious than what is considered a fair contribution: it is more than consistent with the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C limit.

Summary table

Pledges and targets

Turkey submitted its INDC in 2015, with the aim of unconditionally reducing GHG emissions including LULUCF in 2030 by 21% below a BAU projection. The INDC submission provides the reference BAU projection (1175 MtCO2e, GWP AR4) and indicates that the target emissions level is 929 MtCO2e (incl. LULUCF, based on GWP from AR4) in 2030 (The Republic of Turkey, 2015).

Turkey remains one of the only two G20 countries that have not yet ratified the Paris Agreement. Turkey is hoping for a differentiated treatment from the developed industrial Annex I countries that would allow Turkey to access international climate finance (Schneider, Scholar, Schneider, & Scholar, 2017)

This BAU projection is reiterated in Turkey’s 6th national communication and confirmed in its Third Biennial report (Rebuplic of Turkey Ministry of Environment and Urbanization., 2016; Republic of Turkey Ministry of Environment and Urbanization, 2018) .

Since we exclude LULUCF emissions in our rating methodology, we have adjusted the INDC target by subtracting in 2030 LULUCF emissions of -39 MtCO2e/year based on the 6th national communication. The INDC target in 2030 becomes 968 MtCO2e, excluding LULUCF emissions.

To increase the transparency of its commitment, Turkey could consider revising its NDC in future updates to an absolute reduction target.

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