We rate the UK’s national target for 2030 as "Insufficient". As part of the EU, the UK did not submit its own NDC to the Paris Agreement. Therefore, we assess the 2030 emissions levels derived from the UK's national targets.
The “Insufficient” rating indicates that the UK's climate commitment in 2030 is not consistent with holding warming to well below 2°C, let alone limiting it to 1.5°C as required under the Paris Agreement. The emission levels of the UK’s national target falls just within the very top end of the wide range of emissions levels that represent its fair share effort to the Paris Agreement 1.5°C temperature goal. As we explain elsewhere, commitments within the least stringent part of a country’s fair-share range would require other governments to do comparatively more. If all countries were to realize emissions at the top of their respective fair-share ranges, this would add up to global warming substantially above 2°C, so that for all countries, emissions levels just below the top end of a fair-share range are rated as insufficient.
Substantially deeper reductions by 2030 would move the UK’s national targets towards compatibility with the Paris Agreement 1.5°C temperature goal.
The UK’s CAT rating is based on the emission reduction commitments put forward in its national target. If the CAT were to rate the UK‘s projected emissions levels in 2030 under current policies, the UK would still be rated “Insufficient”.
Further information about the risks and impacts associated with the temperature levels of each of the categories is available here.