The historical data for the years 1990 – 2019 is based on 2021 national inventory submissions that were reported in AR4 GWPs (UNFCCC, 2021).
NDC and other targets
Target emission levels for 2020, 2030 and 2050 were calculated from the 2021 national inventory submissions. For Ukraine’s NDC, we apply an accounting method that subtracts the projected LULUCF sink for 2030 from the Reference scenario of the NDC modelling report (-12.2 MtCO2e) from the target level incl. LULUCF for 2030 (IEF, 2021).
Policies & action
The pre-COVID policies & action (or current policy projections) are based on ‘Scenario 1’ from the official modelling report behind Ukraine’s updated NDC (IEF, 2021). Although called the BAU scenario, it is based on the level of implementation of existing climate legislation in Ukraine. The authors note that this scenario reflects the significant delay between policy formulation, adoption and implementation that can currently be observed in the country. We therefore assume it is the most realistic representation of currently implemented policies. The figures were harmonised to the latest historical data.
As of September 2021, there are no alternative sources available to develop other current policy projections for Ukraine.
Planned policy projections
The pre-COVID planned policy projections are based on ‘Scenario 2’ from the official modelling report behind Ukraine’s updated NDC (IEF, 2021). The Reference scenario assumes the timely implementation of all existing climate legislation adopted as of September 2019 and takes into account climate-related legislation that is not yet adopted but expected to be adopted soon. The figures were harmonised to the latest historical data.
To reflect the emissions reduction resulting from the COVID-19 pandemic, we then applied a novel method to estimate the COVID-19 related dip in greenhouse gas emissions in 2020 and the deployment through to 2030. Ukraine’s GHG emissions in 2020 are estimated using the 2020 value for total CO2 emissions from the Global Carbon Project, adjusting industry and energy non-CO2 emissions from 2019 by multiplying them by the decline in GDP in 2020, and calculating a five-year trend of agriculture and waste non-CO2 emissions (Global Carbon Project, 2020). The uncertainty surrounding the severity and length of the pandemic creates a new level of uncertainty for future greenhouse gas emissions. We first update the current policy projections using most recent projections, as outlined above. We then derive the emission intensity (GHG emissions/GDP) from this pre-pandemic scenario and apply to it the most recent GDP projections that consider the effect of the pandemic. For Ukraine, we assume that the Agriculture and Waste sector are not affected by the COVID-19 induced GDP drop and, therefore, do not apply our methodology to these sector emissions.
To capture a wide range of possible future GDP developments, we use more than one GDP growth projection where possible. For Ukraine we consider projections from the IMF (2020-2023) and the Ukrainian government (2022-2024). As the most recent GDP projections only provide values for the next few years, we then use the GDP growth projection for subsequent years until 2030 that was used as the basis for the original pre-pandemic current policy scenario.
Global Warming Potentials values
The CAT uses Global Warming Potential (GWP) values from the IPCC's Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) for all its figures and time series. Assessments completed prior to December 2018 (COP24) used GWP values from the Second Assessment Report (SAR).