We rate Viet Nam’s NDC target as “Critically insufficient”, both based on the emissions reduction target compared to BAU and the emission intensity per GDP target.
The “Critically insufficient” rating indicates that Viet Nam’s climate commitment in 2030 is consistent with a warming of over 4°C: if all countries were to follow Viet Nam’s approach, warming would exceed 4°C. This means Viet Nam's climate commitment is not in line with any interpretation of a “fair” approach to the former 2°C goal, let alone the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C limit.
The CAT ratings are based on climate commitments in NDCs. If the CAT were to rate Viet Nam's projected emissions levels in 2030 under current policies, we would rate Viet Nam “Highly insufficient”, indicating that its current policies in 2030 are not consistent with holding warming to below 2°C, let alone limiting it to 1.5°C as required under the Paris Agreement, and are instead consistent with warming between 3°C and 4°C: if all countries were to follow Viet Nam's approach, warming could reach over 3°C and up to 4°C. This means Viet Nam’s current policies are not in line with any interpretation of a “fair” approach to the former 2°C goal, let alone the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C limit.
Further information about the risks and impacts associated with the temperature levels of each of the categories is available here.