Forecasting emissions under implemented policies
The Climate Action Tracker provides estimates for the future development under current policies through 2030. The scenarios cover implemented policies at the time of the update, and other developments such as expected economic growth or trends in activity and energy consumption.
To derive the projections, CAT uses the following method:
The starting point of the analysis are existing, country-specific policy scenarios from literature. Those come from governments themselves, from national independent research, or from international source (e.g. the IEA’s World Energy Outlook).
CAT checks available scenarios for completeness with respect to sectors, gases and covered policies, and soundness of underlying assumptions. Where necessary we combine or compare those with other scenarios.
Where policies are not considered in external scenarios, for example because they were implemented after the projection was published, CAT integrates a bottom-up quantification of selected policies (with the policies most relevant in terms of potential GHG emissions or of high political interest selected). Where considered relevant, strong implementation barriers such as for example political resistance or technical difficulties are taken into account in projecting the effect of specific policies or targets, by assuming that only a fraction of the target is achieved.
Given that the emission projections do not always match the historical datasets, CAT often harmonises the projections, using their growth applied to actual historical inventory data, rather than the absolute values of the projections.
Detailed assumptions behind the current policy projections per country are available on the country pages on our website.