China

Overall rating
Highly insufficient

Policies and action
against modelled domestic pathways

Highly insufficient
< 4°C World

NDC target
against modelled domestic pathways

Highly insufficient
< 4°C World

NDC target
against fair share

Highly insufficient
< 4°C World
Climate finance
Not assessed
Net zero target

year

before 2060

Comprehensiveness rated as

Poor
Land use & forestry
Not significant

Target Overview

China submitted its updated NDC to the UNFCCC on October 28, 2021, ahead of COP26. The NDC update strengthened and expanded previous 2030 NDC targets and added a fifth new target. At the time of the October 2021 announcement, we assessed the updated NDC to be slightly more ambitious than the current policy projections at the time.

Our revised assessment of the country’s policies shows that China is expected to significantly overachieve its energy-related NDC targets without a substantial increase in implementing mitigation policy, but could be in danger of missing its carbon intensity target if emissions do not decline in the latter half of the decade. The CAT has retained its "Highly insufficient" rating for China’s NDC targets.

China also submitted its Mid-Century Long-Term Low Greenhouse Gas Emission Development Strategy (LTS) with its NDC at the same time, containing the government’s commitment to reach “carbon neutrality before 2060”. The LTS implies China’s emissions coverage is only for carbon dioxide, whereas previously the CAT assumed the coverage was for all GHGs (as claimed by Xie Zhenhua and Tsinghua University).

Due to the size of China’s emissions, the difference in emissions coverage could make up to 0.1°C more (CO2 only) or less (all GHGs) warming in 2100. Given the LTS submission does not meet the majority of our criteria for a best-practice approach in LTS formulation, we evaluate China’s net-zero target as “Poor”.

CHINA — Main climate targets
2030 NDC target
Formulation of target in NDC China’s updated NDC contains five overarching targets:

1. Peaking carbon dioxide emissions “before 2030” (up from the previous “around 2030 and making efforts to peak earlier”) and achieve carbon neutrality before 2060.

2. Lower carbon intensity by “over 65%” in 2030 from the 2005 level, (up from the previous “by 60–65%”).

3. Share of non-fossil fuels in primary energy consumption to “around 25%” in 2030, (up from “around 20%”).

4. Increase forest stock volume by around 6 billion cubic metres in 2030 from the 2005 level, (previously 4.5 billion cubic metres).

5. Increase the installed capacity of wind and solar power to over 1,200 GW by 2030 (new target).
Absolute emissions level in 2030 
excl. LULUCF
13.9 GtCO2e
[26% above 2010]
Status Submitted on 28 October 2021
Net zero & other long-term targets
Formulation of target China will strive to reach a CO2 emissions peak before 2030, and achieve carbon neutrality before 2060
Absolute emissions level in 2050 
excl. LULUCF
N/A
Status Submitted on 28 October 2021

For details on what we do for our Optimistic Target global temperature estimate for China, please see the Assumptions tab.

NDC Updates

China:

  • Submitted a stronger target on 28 October 2021.

China officially submitted its updated NDC to the UNFCCC, updating its four separate NDC targets and adding a fifth target that aims to increase renewable capacity. The NDC target revisions are all improvements in ambition for emission reductions, and emission levels expected from the targets have all been revised lower compared to the first NDC. At the time of the updated NDC submission, the expected emission levels achieved under the NDC were within the range of China’s projected current policies emissions trajectory in 2030 (13.2 to 14.5 GtCO2e).

After considering new policy developments and energy trends, the CAT has revised China’s current policy projections to 13.8 – 14.3 GtCO2e in 2030 (equivalent to emissions under the peaking target given no peaking year is specified) while achieving the NDC would reach emission levels of 13.9 GtCO2e in 2030. This suggests that China is due to overachieve its energy-related NDC targets and would be able to raise target-setting ambition to strive for goals beyond its current policy trajectory. However, China could be in danger of missing its carbon intensity target if sluggish economic growth continues without a substantial drop in emissions.

China’s NDC peaking target only directly covers CO2 gases, omitting significant emissions from energy, agriculture, waste and industry.

CHINA — History of NDC updates First NDC 2021 NDC update
1.5°C compatible

Stronger target N/A
Economy-wide coverage

Fixed/absolute target


CHINA First NDC 2021 NDC update
Formulation of target in NDC 1. Peak carbon dioxide emissions “around 2030 and making efforts to peak earlier”.
2. Lower carbon intensity “by 60–65%” in 2030 from the 2005 level.
3. Share of non-fossil fuels in primary energy consumption to increase to “around 20%” by 2030.
4. Increase forest stock volume by 4.5 billion cubic metres in 2030 from the 2005 level.
1. Peak carbon dioxide emissions “before 2030” and achieve carbon neutrality before 2060.
2. Lower carbon intensity by “over 65%” in 2030 from the 2005 level.
3. Share of non-fossil fuels in primary energy consumption to increase to “around 25%” by 2030.
4. Increase forest stock volume by around 6 billion cubic metres in 2030 from the 2005 level.
5. Increase the installed capacity of wind and solar power to over 1,200 GW by 2030.
Absolute emissions level
excl. LULUCF
13.2–14.0 GtCO2e by 2030 13.9 GtCO2e by 2030
Emissions compared to 1990 and 2010
excl. LULUCF
20–27% below 2010 emissions by 2030 26% above 2010 emissions by 2030
CAT rating Overall rating*:
Highly Insufficient
NDC target against modelled domestic pathways:
Insufficient

NDC target against fair share:
Highly Insufficient
Sector coverage China’s NDC peaking target only directly covers CO2 gases, omitting significant emissions from energy, agriculture, waste and industry. Other NDC targets cover the energy sector only. China’s NDC peaking target only directly covers CO2 gases, omitting significant emissions from energy, agriculture, waste and industry. Other NDC targets cover the energy sector only.
Separate target for LULUCF No, although China has a forest stock volume target for forestry. No, although China has a forest stock volume target for forestry.
Gas coverage China’s NDC peaking target only directly covers CO2 gases, with reductions of HCFC22 production of 35% by 2020 and 67.5% by 2025 below 2010 levels China’s NDC peaking target only directly covers CO2 gases.
Target type • Emissions peaking around year
• Non-emissions target: share of non-fossil fuels, forest stock, carbon intensity
• Emissions peaking before year
• Non-emissions target: share of non-fossil fuels, forest stock, carbon intensity, total solar and wind power capacity installed.

* Before September 2021, all CAT ratings were based exclusively on fair share and only assessed a country’s target

Target development timeline & previous CAT analysis

CAT rating of targets

The CAT rates NDC targets against what a fair contribution to achieving the Paris Agreement’s long-term temperature goal would be as well as against what needs to happen within a country’s borders. China will need minimal support to achieve those needed reductions within its borders. China has one NDC (with several targets). It has not specified whether a portion of the target is conditional on international support or whether its NDC has an international element, so we rate its NDC target against both metrics.

NDC target
against modelled domestic pathways

Highly insufficient

Under China’s peaking and carbon-intensity NDC targets, the targets expected to achieve the lowest emission levels, China’s emission levels would reach 13.9 GtCO2e/year in 2030. China is likely to overachieve its energy-related NDC commitments with our current policy projections. The CAT rates China’s NDC target against modelled domestic pathways as “Highly Insufficient”.

The “Highly Insufficient” rating indicates that China’s NDC target in 2030 needs substantial improvements in ambition to be consistent with the 1.5°C temperature limit. If all countries were to follow China’s approach, warming would reach over 3°C and up to 4°C.

Whether China should or should not receive some climate finance from abroad to reduce its emissions is a matter of debate. Our methods do not provide a clear answer to this question. On balance, the CAT methodology shows that China needing a small but important amount of international support is consistent with the wide range of literature on fair share contributions to meeting the Paris Agreement's goals (the figure above shows it to receive a small contribution). In any case, the NDC target achieved with its own resources would need to be increased significantly to be in line with the 1.5°C limit.

NDC target
against fair share

Highly insufficient

China’s emission levels under its NDC commitments are higher than what would be deemed Paris compatible compared to our “fair share” approach, resulting in our rating of “Highly Insufficient”.

The “Highly insufficient” rating indicates that China’s NDC target in 2030 lead to high and plateauing, rather than falling, emissions and is not at all consistent with limiting warming to 1.5°C. China’s target is not in line with any interpretation of fairness. If all countries were to follow China’s approach, warming could reach over 3°C and up to 4°C.

Net zero and other long-term target(s)

We evaluate the net-zero target as: Poor.

China submitted its Mid-Century Long-Term Low Greenhouse Gas Emission Development Strategy (LTS) on October 28, 2021 to the UNFCCC, which contains the country’s commitment to reach “carbon neutrality before 2060”. The commitment was first declared at the UN General Assembly in September 2020 by President Xi Jinping (FMPRC, 2020).

The officially-submitted LTS appears to confirm the commitment covers only carbon dioxide emissions, whereas the CAT had previously assumed the coverage was for all GHGs as claimed by Xie Zhenhua and Tsinghua University. The target is not yet enshrined in an official law but has become a core focus and narrative across all national and subnational planning documents, government notices, and politburo convenings, which was reaffirmed in China’s 2022 “Two Sessions” (Xinhua, 2022).

If China’s net zero target were to cover all GHG emissions, its long-term strategy could be within range of mid-century Paris Agreement compatible emission levels, although compatibility also depends on the shape of the pathway (Yvonne Deng et al., 2020).

Due to the size of China’s emissions, this difference can make up to 0.1°C more (CO2 only) or less (all GHGs) warming in 2100. Given the LTS submission does not meet the majority of our criteria for a best-practice approach in LTS formulation, we evaluate China’s net-zero target as “Poor”.

For the full analysis click here.

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