Germany

Overall rating
Insufficient

Policies and action
against modelled domestic pathways

Almost Sufficient
< 2°C World

National target
against modelled domestic pathways

Almost Sufficient
< 2°C World

National target
against fair share

Insufficient
< 3°C World
Climate finance
Insufficient
Net zero target

year

2045

Comprehensiveness rated as

Average
Land use & forestry
Not significant

Target Overview

Germany has the following national climate change mitigation targets (German Government, 2021b):

  • 65% national emissions reduction below 1990 levels excl. LULUCF by 2030 (up from 55%)
  • a new, interim target of 88% below 1990 levels excl. LULUCF by 2040
  • climate neutrality by 2045

Germany did not submit its own NDC but is part of the EU’s target of 55% below 1990 levels excl. LULUCF and the EU climate neutrality goal for 2050.

CAT rates the 2030 target as “Almost sufficient” compared to modelled domestic pathways, and “Insufficient” when compared to Germany’s fair share. CAT analysis finds that to be in line with the 1.5°C limit of the Paris Agreement, Germany’s 2030 emissions reduction target should aim for reductions of at least 69% below 1990 levels domestically. To fully contribute its fair share, Germany would also have to significantly increase its international climate finance.

The German climate law includes a breakdown of the 2030 target to sectors, where the responsibility for meeting the sectoral targets used to lie with the different ministries. The ministries need to propose emergency measures in their area of responsibility if annual targets are missed, with the objective to incentivise climate action across all sectors. Progress towards the targets has strongly varied by sector to date (German Government, 2021a).

The government wants to significantly weaken this law and, in June 2023, began revising the law, allowing the different sectors to compensate for each other, effectively weakening the overall target framework (German Government, 2023a).

The ministries now would only need to provide immediate programmes to adjust their policies if the overall target is missed, independently of the sector performance. This approach assumes that one sector could potentially compensate for the lack of action in another, but it is highly unlikely that any sector overfulfils its own target considering the current gap in implementation. It is also undermining the necessity for comprehensive action across all sectors, which is required for a 1.5°C compatible pathway. The law foresees the sector targets beyond 2030 to be defined in 2024.

GERMANY — Main climate targets
2030 national target
Formulation of target in national law Greenhouse gas emissions will be reduced from 1990 levels as follows:
• at least 65% by 2030
Absolute emissions level in 2030* 
excl. LULUCF
Level of emissions to be achieved at home
435 MtCO2e
[65% below 1990]
[53% below 2010]
Status Updated Climate Protection Law from 18 August 2021
Net zero & other long-term targets
Formulation of target Greenhouse gas emissions will be reduced from 1990 levels as follows:
• at least 88% by 2040

By 2045, greenhouse gas emissions will be reduced to such an extent that net greenhouse gas neutrality is achieved. After the year 2050, negative greenhouse gas emissions are to be achieved.
Absolute emissions level in 2050* 
excl. LULUCF
40 MtCO2e
[97% below 1990]
[96% below 2010]
Status Updated Climate Protection Law from 18 August 2021

*For details on how Climate Action Tracker calculated the target values see the Assumptions tab

National target Updates

In June 2021, in the wake of a Constitutional Court ruling that Germany’s climate targets were not strong enough, the government adopted an amendment to its 2019 climate law. Germany’s Constitutional Court had argued that the previous climate law from 2019 risked delaying action and putting too much burden on future generations. It asked for more clarity on the trajectory beyond 2030. The 2021 amendment of the climate revised the targets as follows (German Government, 2021b):

  • 65% national emissions reduction below 1990 levels excl. LULUCF by 2030 – up from a 55% reduction in the 2019 climate law
  • 88% below 1990 levels excl. LULUCF by 2040 – an additional interim goal that was not part of the 2019 climate law
  • climate neutrality by 2045 – five years earlier than the 2050 net zero date from the 2019 climate law.

Overall, the amendment includes stronger targets than the original law. The 65% reduction is close to the 69% that CAT suggests as the minimum necessary domestic effort (CAT, 2021).

GERMANY — History of national target updates 2019 target 2021 target update
1.5°C compatible

Stronger target N/A
Fixed/absolute target


GERMANY 2019 target 2021 target update
Formulation of target in national target By the target year 2030, a reduction rate of at least 55% applies. Greenhouse gas emissions will be reduced from 1990 levels as follows:
• at least 65% by 2030
Absolute emissions level
excl. LULUCF
562 MtCO2e by 2030 435 MtCO2e by 2030
Emissions compared to 1990 and 2010
excl. LULUCF
55% below 1990 emissions by 2030
40% below 2010 emissions by 2030
65% below 1990 emissions by 2030
53% below 2010 emissions by 2030
CAT rating Overall rating*:
Highly insufficient
National target against modelled domestic pathways:
Almost Sufficient

National target against fair share:

Insufficient
Sector coverage Economy-wide Economy-wide
Separate target for LULUCF No Yes,
at least -25 MtCO2e by 2030
Gas coverage All greenhouse gases All greenhouse gases
Target type Relative emissions reduction below a base year Relative emissions reduction below a base year

* Before September 2021, all CAT ratings were based exclusively on fair share and only assessed a country’s target

CAT rating of targets

The CAT rates targets against what a country should be doing within its own borders as well as what a fair contribution to achieving the Paris Agreement’s long-term temperature goal would be. For assessing targets against the fair share, we consider both a country’s domestic emission reductions and any emissions it supports abroad through the use of market mechanisms or other ways of support, as relevant.

Germany does not intend to use market mechanisms and will achieve its national target through domestic action alone. We rate its national target against both domestic and fairness metrics.

National target
against modelled domestic pathways

Almost Sufficient

We rate Germany’s 2030 reduction target of 65% below 1990 levels as “Almost sufficient” when compared to modelled emissions pathways. The “Almost sufficient” rating indicates that Germany’s national target in 2030 is not yet consistent with the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C temperature limit but could be, with moderate improvements. If all countries were to follow Germany’s approach, warming could be held at—but not well below—2°C. While the proposed target represents a significant improvement compared to its previous target, Germany’s new target is not stringent enough to limit warming to 1.5°C and needs further improvement.

National target
against fair share

Insufficient

We rate Germany’s 2030 target of 65% below 1990 levels excl. LULUCF as “Insufficient” when compared with its fair-share emissions allocation. The “Insufficient” rating indicates that Germany’s fair share target in 2030 needs substantial improvement to be consistent with the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C temperature limit.

Germany should both further increase its emissions reduction target and provide significantly more and predictable finance to others to meet its fair-share contribution. Germany’s target is at the least stringent end of what would be a fair share of global effort, and is not consistent with the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C limit, unless other countries make much deeper reductions and comparably greater effort. If all countries were to follow Germany’s approach, warming would reach over 2°C and up to 3°C.

Germany’s international climate finance is rated “Insufficient” (see below) and is not enough to improve Germany’s fair share rating.

Climate finance
Insufficient

Germany’s international public climate finance contributions are better than most developed countries but still rated “Insufficient.” Germany has committed to increasing its climate finance but contributions to date have been low compared to its fair share as assessed by the CAT.

To improve its rating, Germany needs to increase its international climate finance contributions by around a factor of three in the period post-2020 and urgently stop funding fossil fuel projects abroad. At COP26, Germany signed a declaration to stop financing fossil fuels abroad, but this decision is under threat: the draft for public consultation for the sector guidelines for export credits allow investments in existing and new fossil fuel infrastructure (BMWK, 2023e).

Germany is the biggest European climate finance donor. According to the CAT estimates, its contributions represent more than half of the EU contributions. However, due to the high fair share requirements assessed by the CAT, Germany’s current contributions remain “Highly insufficient.”

Most German contributions for climate finance are distributed via bilateral development cooperation. Funding is implemented by Gesellschaft für internationale Zusammenarbeit (GIZ) and KfW Development Bank. The International Climate Initiative (IKI) is a separate funding mechanism of the Climate and Economics Ministry (BMWK), the Environment Ministry (BMU), and the Federal Foreign Office (AA). A smaller share is disbursed through contributions to multilateral climate funds. A significant share of the finance takes the form of grants, but Germany also relies on other financial instruments, such as concessional loans (Deutsche Klimafinanzierung, 2021).

Germany remains committed to the global USD 100 bn goal in climate finance for developing countries per year through 2025, but the USD 100 bn goal in itself is insufficient in the period post-2020. At the G7 Summit in June 2021, Germany committed to increase climate finance by EUR 2 bn to a total level of EUR 6 bn annually by 2025 (Kanzleramt Deutschland, 2021).

Despite the promises, the amount of climate finance has not significantly increased since 2021. 2021 to 2023: EUR 4.3 bn each year (Kowalzig, 2022). The draft budget plan for 2024 is reported to be EUR 4.6 bn (Pötter, 2023), but there is no official confirmation of this number yet. The Ministry for Economic Cooperation and Development (BMZ) in August 2023, according to press reports, announced that Germany had overachieved its target for 2022 and is confident the numbers for 2023 and going forward will also be above the 6 bn. The ministry had not yet published this data at the time of this assessment. In 2023, during the Petersberg Dialogue, Germany announced EUR 2 bn of climate finance for the replenishment of the Green Climate Fund, a third more than in the previous round (The German Government, 2023).

The Climate Action Tracker climate finance rating focuses on finance for climate change mitigation, and the data shows an increase in this area over the years, which results in a positive rating of the contribution's trend. A clear and sustained increase in international climate mitigation finance across all areas is fundamental.

Further information on how the CAT rates countries (against modelled pathways and fair share) can be found here.

Net zero and other long-term target(s)

In June 2021, Germany adopted its 2045 net zero target in its revised climate law. The net zero target generally covers all key elements but fails to meet best practice standards for some of them. Germany also falls under the European Union net zero target (see separate CAT analysis).

Germany’s target covers all sectors and gases, underpinned by an emissions pathway to 2040 and the communication of binding sectoral targets until 2030. International aviation and shipping remain outside of the target’s scope. A periodic and legally-binding review process of measures and interim targets by an Expert Council is in place. Germany provides separate reduction and removal targets with regards to LULUCF but remains unclear on any other carbon removal. The net zero target is enshrined in law in Germany’s climate law.

The German government has failed to provide explicit and transparent assumptions on some key elements of its net zero target. The proposed measures aim to achieve net zero on Germany’s own territory, but the climate law explicitly reserves the right to use international offset credits. Lastly, Germany also fails to communicate transparent assumptions on carbon storage and removal.

For the full analysis click here.

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