Nigeria

Nigeria is facing a severe cost-of-living crisis following President Tinubu’s partial removal of fuel subsidies and the devaluation of the Naira, resulting in mass protests and food insecurity. While the moves were intended to address growing government debt and attract foreign investment into the country, they have left many Nigerians unable to afford food or fuel, at a time of great instability in the country's heavily fossil fuel-based energy supply where many rely on petrol-driven generators, and on fuel subsidies to afford them.

President Tinubu has acknowledged the need to reduce reliance on the oil and gas sector and develop solar power, but has also expressed support for increased oil and gas production for domestic consumption and export, which is unlikely to provide a solution for the current instability of the country's electricity grid. A continued reliance on fossil gas as a "transition" fuel on the domestic front also risks stranded assets and may delay the energy transition.

While Nigeria’s policies and targets represent a fair contribution to limiting global warming with its own resources, to actually reduce emissions to a level consistent with 1.5ºC it needs to decarbonise its economy and will require international support to do so. Overall, the CAT rates Nigeria’s climate targets and policies as “Almost sufficient”.

In 2024, Nigeria submitted its new Long-Term Low-Emissions Development Strategy (LT-LEDS), which confirms their announced target to achieve net-zero emissions by 2060. However, of the four scenarios in the LT-LEDS, only the Renewable Energy Scenario achieves the net-zero target. The Energy Transition Plan (ETP) to achieve net zero by 2060, considered in our planned policies scenario, requires significant international support. The government aimed to secure an initial USD 10 billion support package ahead of COP27 to kickstart implementation, but has not secured sufficient financing as of December 2024.

Nigeria has adopted new measures and announced plans to reduce emissions:

• The Electricity Act of 2023 aims to address challenges plaguing the power sector by decentralising and privatising the sector and removing barriers to the deployment of minigrids. This may facilitate growth in renewables, which currently account for about 20% of electricity generation, and expand energy access.
• In January 2023, Nigeria adopted new Methane Guidelines that include mandatory measures for oil and gas companies, such as leak detection, to reduce methane emissions from the oil and gas sector. Methane emissions from oil and gas production accounted for about 13% of emissions in 2023 and have traditionally been a significant source of emissions.

While these are positive developments, the government’s continued reliance on oil and gas risks locking Nigeria into emissions-intensive infrastructure. This will likely lead to the major stranding of assets and misallocation of investment resources and continue to drive up national emissions. To meet its net zero ambitions, Nigeria could:

• Support the uptake of renewables, such as solar home systems and mini-grids, as people move away from expensive diesel and petrol back-up generators and expand access to unserved areas.
• Move ahead with implementing the 2021 Climate Change Act and clarify key elements of the net zero target, such as emissions coverage and the role of carbon removals.
• Avoid locking in high-emission fossil gas infrastructure projects, such as the Nigeria-Morocco gas pipeline and additional liquified natural gas (LNG) export capacity. With uncertainty in long-term fossil gas demand, these investments are at risk of becoming stranded assets.

According to the IEA, no new oil or gas field development should be undertaken if net zero emissions (NZE) in 2050 is to be achieved. The IEA’s 2022 update of its NZE scenario indicates that African oil and fossil gas production needs to decline by 41% and 13% below 2021 levels by 2030 respectively, and 82% for oil and 78% for gas by 2050. In other words, expanding the availability of oil or fossil gas in Nigeria or anywhere else in the world is inconsistent with limiting warming to 1.5ºC and achieving net zero emissions by 2050.

The CAT rates each country’s targets and policies against (1) its fair share contribution to climate change mitigation considering a range of equity principles including responsibility, capability and equality, and (2) what is technically and economically feasible using modelled domestic pathways which in absence of a better method are based on global least-cost climate change mitigation.

Comparing a country’s fair share ranges and modelled domestic pathways provides insights into which governments should provide climate finance and which should receive it. Developed countries with large responsibility for historical emissions and high per-capita emissions, must not only implement ambitious climate action domestically but must also support climate action in developing countries with lower historical responsibility, capability, and lower per-capita emissions.

The CAT rates Nigeria’s climate targets and policies as “Almost sufficient”. The “Almost sufficient” rating indicates that Nigeria’s climate commitments are not yet consistent with the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C temperature limit but could be with moderate improvements.

Nigeria’s unconditional target meets its fair share contribution to limit warming to 1.5°C; however, its conditional target is consistent with 2°C of warming when compared to the level of climate action needed within the country including international support.

While Nigeria’s policies and action are 1.5°C compatible when compared to its fair share contribution, they are not on track when compared to the level of climate action needed within the country to meet that warming limit. Nigeria needs additional support to implement additional policies and to strengthen and meet its conditional target.

The CAT estimates that Nigeria’s greenhouse gas emissions would reach 62–72% above 2010 levels excluding LULUCF in 2030 under current policies and including the impact of COVID-19.

In August 2022, Nigeria released its Energy Transition Plan (ETP), put forward as the key strategy to achieving its 2060 net zero target; however, the plan relies on significant action after 2030. Former President Buhari has declared the period to 2030 the “Decade of Gas” and current President Tinubu has also expressed strong support for oil and fossil gas.

As Nigeria is currently seeking international support to kick-start implementation of the ETP, we have included it in our planned policies scenario rather than in our current policies scenario.

Nigeria’s current policies are rated 1.5˚C compatible when compared to its fair share contribution from its own resources. The “1.5˚C compatible” rating indicates that Nigeria’s climate policies and action are consistent with limiting warming to 1.5°C. However, there is significant potential for mitigation actions to go beyond Nigeria’s fair share with international support.

While Nigeria’s policies and action are consistent with a fair contribution to climate action, they do not put Nigeria on track to meet either of its targets. These policies are also inconsistent with the level of emissions cuts needed to limit warming to 1.5°C. Implementation of the ETP, reflected in our planned policies scenario, would put Nigeria on track to meets its unconditional target, but not its conditional target. Nigeria will need to implement additional policies with its own resources to meet its unconditional target but will also need international support to implement policies in line with full decarbonisation to meet and exceed its conditional target.

Key steps to reducing the gap between current policies and Nigeria’s NDC targets include progressing towards and ramping up its renewable energy target and halting the expansion of fossil gas.

In its 2021 NDC update, Nigeria committed to reducing emissions by 47% below BAU by 2030, conditional on international support. This is equivalent to an emissions level 2% above to 15% below 2010 levels by 2030 excluding LULUCF. While this is a strong conditional target, Nigeria will need to strengthen its policies to make sure it has the enabling conditions in place to meet the target, in addition to receiving international support.

The CAT rates Nigeria’s 2030 conditional target as “Almost sufficient,” a rating that indicates that Nigeria’s conditional NDC target in 2030 is not yet consistent with limiting warming to 1.5°C but could be, with moderate improvements. If all countries were to follow Nigeria’s approach, warming could be held below—but not well below—2°C.

Nigeria’s conditional target spans the CAT’s “Almost sufficient” and 1.5°C compatible ratings. The large target range is due to uncertainty around the extent to which Nigeria plans to rely on the land sector in meeting its target. Further clarity from Nigeria on this may result in a 1.5°C compatible target.

When the latest version of the modelled domestic pathways (MDPs) were produced in March 2024, they were harmonised to the latest historical data available at the time. Since then, Nigeria has revised their estimate of historical emissions, resulting in a gap in 2019 between the MDPs and historical data. This discrepancy will be addressed in the next update.

In its 2021 NDC update, Nigeria recommitted to unconditionally reducing emissions 20% below BAU by 2030. This is equivalent to an emissions level of 28-35% above 2010 levels (excl. LULUCF) by 2030. The CAT rates Nigeria’s 2030 unconditional target as 1.5°C compatible when compared to what its fair share contribution is.

The “1.5°C compatible” rating indicates that Nigeria’s unconditional NDC target is consistent with limiting warming to 1.5°C. Nigeria’s unconditional NDC target does not require other countries to make comparably deeper reductions or greater effort and is in the most stringent part of its fair share range.

The fair share literature for Nigeria is sparse and some equity categories have few data points. As a result, the upper bound of Nigeria’s fair share range is dominated by a handful of studies. This high range is not reflective of much of the literature, which indicates more stringent emission reductions. Future equity studies may help to improve the fair share analysis for Nigeria.

In November 2021, Nigeria passed the Climate Change Act that seeks to achieve greenhouse gas emissions in line with carbon budgets with green and sustainable growth by providing the framework to set a target to reach net zero between 2050 and 2070. At COP26, former President Buhari further committed to net zero emissions by 2060, which would be in line with the Climate Change Act.

Nigeria’s Energy Transition Plan, released August 2022, was developed to serve as the pathway towards achieving the 2060 net zero target. As the Act only sets the framework for adopting a net zero GHG target between 2050 and 2070, the final net zero target could improve on several elements. In particular, the target should clarify emissions coverage, review process, and the role of carbon removals in achieving the target. We evaluate the target design as “Average”.

The full net zero target analysis can be found here.