Argentina

Argentina is slowly making progress in developing climate policies but lacks ambitious action in key sectors such as energy, agriculture and livestock. In November 2022, Argentina submitted its long-promised Long-Term Strategy (LTS), confirming its 2050 GHG neutrality target. Shortly after, it published its National Plan for Climate Change Mitigation and Adaptation, detailing many measures and sectoral targets to support its GHG emission targets, albeit without significant improvements in ambition. Overall, CAT rates Argentina’s climate targets and policies as “Critically insufficient”.

Argentina submitted an updated NDC in December 2021 that sets a unconditional target that is only a marginal improvement on the previous iteration. Argentina’s latest target only achieves a “Highly insufficient” rating when compared to required domestic efforts, and a “Critically insufficient” rating when compared to Argentina’s fair share contribution to global climate change mitigation. With emissions (excl. LULUCF) projected to grow significantly after 2021, Argentina is set to miss its NDC target by a large margin.

Argentina’s NDC target rating has changed since our last update, from “Highly insufficient” to “Critically insufficient” against its fair share, and from “Insufficient” to “Highly insufficient” under modelled domestic pathways. This change in rating is not due to Argentina submitting a new and weaker NDC target, but rather to two methodological changes: first, we have updated our modelled domestic pathways to the latest pathways assessed by the AR6. This latest evidence shows that Argentina needs to cut emissions faster to align with 1.5°C. Second, we have updated our assumptions about Argentina's 2030 LULUCF emissions, which result in higher emissions excluding LULUCF than in previous assessments. Projections under current policies show the LULUCF sector is expected to become a small GHG sink by 2030, while previous projections expected the sector to remain a relevant source of emissions. This means that the contribution needed from other sectors to reach Argentina’s NDC target will be smaller, because the LULUCF sector will make a larger contribution towards the target. The CAT rates NDC targets excluding LULUCF.

Under the current administration, Argentina has centred its energy sector strategy around fossil fuels. In 2022, the government fast-tracked a previously mothballed project to build a pipeline connecting the Vaca Muerta shale fields with the national gas network to enable a substantial ramp-up of production. The pipeline was built in record times and started operations in June 2023. Meanwhile, Argentina continues to increase oil production to new records, and has begun offshore exploration off the coast of Buenos Aires.

Along with the focus on fossil fuels, there has been a de-prioritisation of renewables in favour of nuclear power. The design and timeline of RenovAr 4, the next renewable auction round originally planned for 2019, has not been defined and seems to be a low priority for the government. In July 2022, as part of its nuclear plan, the government announced a deal with Chinese manufacturers to start the construction of a new nuclear plant before the end of 2022 and plans for the development of an additional plant. However, the start of the project was delayed due to financing issues.

With Argentina’s general elections in October this year, potential candidates are building up their electoral platforms. However, no candidates so far have identified the climate crisis as a key agenda issue. An ambitious climate platform should include:

• Phase out support for upstream oil and gas developments.
• Set out a transition plan for the energy sector and reactivate existing renewables policies such as the RenovAr auction scheme.
• Set out a transition plan for the land sector, including agriculture, livestock and land use change.

Argentina has also taken some important steps towards reducing its emissions in some sectors, including:

• Plans to reduce emissions from the transport sector include developing cycling infrastructure, electric rail, and setting targets for electric vehicles (EV) for public fleets and private vehicles, as well as public transport.
• There are several measures in place to reduce emissions from the buildings sector, including incentives for rooftop solar and solar heating, incentives for more efficient lighting and appliances, and energy efficiency labelling for homes.
• In the waste sector, Argentina has set a target to eradicate open-air landfills, and has targets to reduce food loss and waste towards 2030.

The CAT rates Argentina’s climate targets and policies together as “Critically insufficient”. The “Critically Insufficient” rating indicates that Argentina’s climate policies and commitments reflect minimal to no action and are not at all consistent with the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C temperature limit.

We rate Argentina’s 2030 climate target “Highly Insufficient” when compared to modelled domestic emissions pathways and “Critically insufficient” when compared with its fair-share contribution to climate action.

Argentina’s policies and actions are also rated as “Highly Insufficient ” when compared to modelled domestic emissions pathways as they lead to rising, rather than falling, emissions. To achieve its NDC target, Argentina would need to enhance its current policies which are currently only compatible with over 3°C and up to 4°C of warming.

Argentina’s overall rating as well as its NDC and policies and action ratings have all been rated one grade lower due to two reasons: first, due to a change in our assumptions about LULUCF emissions in Argentina in 2030, which result in higher emissions excluding LULUCF than in previous assessments. Projections under current policies show that the LULUCF sector is expected to become a small GHG sink by 2030, while previous projections expected LULUCF to remain a relevant source of emissions. This means that the contribution needed from other sectors to reach Argentina’s NDC target will be smaller, because the LULUCF sector will make a larger contribution towards the target. Second, due to an update in our modelled domestic pathways to reflect the latest science in line with the IPCC AR6 suite. This latest evidence shows that Argentina needs to cut emissions faster to align with 1.5°C.

Argentina’s 2030 emissions target is not aligned with 1.5°C when compared to global least-cost modelled domestic pathways, produced by downscaling integrated assessment model (IAM) pathways to the country level.

Modelled domestic pathways alone also do not represent a fair emissions reduction pathway for Argentina. When considering an equitable allocation of emission reductions across countries, Argentina’s targets are far below what would represent a fair contribution.

We rate Argentina’s policies and actions as “Highly insufficient” when compared to modelled domestic emissions pathways. The “Highly insufficient” rating indicates that Argentina’s climate policies and action in 2030 are not enough to achieve its NDC and need substantial improvements to be consistent with limiting warming to 1.5°C. If all countries were to follow Argentina’s approach, warming would reach over 3°C and up to 4°C.

Argentina’s policies and action rating compared to modelled domestic pathways is now lower than in our previous assessment due to an update in our modelled domestic pathways to the pathways assessed in the AR6. This latest evidence shows that Argentina needs to cut emissions faster to align with 1.5°C.

As a response to volatile international fossil fuel prices, the government has turned its attention to increasing domestic production of oil and gas. While production of shale oil and gas has reached its highest level in Argentina since 2011, further increases are limited due to the lack of transport infrastructure. To address this, the government has fast-tracked existing plans to build a pipeline connecting the Vaca Muerta gas field with the national gas network. This has the potential to prevent Argentina from meeting its climate targets through higher upstream energy emissions as well as lock-in effects from fossil fuel infrastructure.

In December 2022, Argentina published its latest National Plan for Climate Change Mitigation and Adaptation. The strategy includes climate measures and targets covering all major sectors, including targets for the decarbonisation of the transport sector, incentives to increase energy efficiency in buildings, and measures to reduce food loss and waste. This strategy, however, does not include any new renewable energy targets or measures, nor any significant measures to reduce emissions from the land sector, especially from livestock.

The full policies and action analysis can be found here.

We rate Argentina’s NDC target of “not exceeding the net emission of 349 million tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent in 2030” from its November 2021 updated NDC as “Highly insufficient” when compared with modelled domestic emissions pathways, or what they will do within their own territory. The “Highly insufficient” rating is associated with global temperature rise over 3°C and up to 4°C by end of the century and indicates that Argentina’s domestic target in 2030 needs substantial improvements to be consistent with limiting warming to1.5°C.

Argentina’s NDC ratings have all been rated one grade lower due to two reasons: first, due to a change in our assumptions about LULUCF emissions in Argentina in 2030, which result in higher emissions excluding LULUCF than in previous assessments. Projections under current policies show that the LULUCF sector is expected to become a small GHG sink by 2030, while previous projections expected LULUCF to remain a relevant source of emissions. This means that the contribution needed from other sectors to reach Argentina’s NDC target will be smaller, because the LULUCF sector will make a larger contribution towards the target. Second, due to an update in our modelled domestic pathways to reflect the latest science in line with the IPCC AR6 suite. This latest evidence shows that Argentina needs to cut emissions faster to align with 1.5°C.

Our methods do not provide a clear answer to whether Argentina should receive climate finance from abroad to reduce its emissions.

We rate Argentina’s 2030 NDC target from November 2021 as “Critically insufficient” when compared with its fair share contribution to climate action. The “Critically insufficient” rating indicates that Argentina’s climate target reflects minimal to no action and is not at all consistent with the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C temperature limit.

The drop in Argentina’s NDC target rating against fair share since our last update, from “Highly insufficient” to “Critically insufficient”, is not due to Argentina submitting a new and weaker NDC target, but rather to a change in our assumptions about LULUCF emissions in Argentina in 2030, which result in higher emissions excluding LULUCF than in previous assessments. Projections under current policies show that the LULUCF sector is expected to become a small GHG sink by 2030, while previous projections expected LULUCF to remain a relevant source of emissions.

This means that the contribution needed from other sectors to reach Argentina’s NDC target will be smaller, because the LULUCF sector will make a larger contribution towards the target. The CAT rates NDC targets excluding LULUCF.

Argentina’s average share of emissions from Land Use, Land-Use Change and Forestry (LULUCF) over the past 20 years is more than 20% of the country’s total emissions. Argentina should work toward reducing emissions from LULUCF, particularly reducing deforestation and preserving and enhancing land sinks. For more information about forestry activities in Argentina, please see the policies and action section.

We evaluate the net zero target as: Poor.

In November 2022, Argentina submitted a long-term strategy (LTS) to the UNFCCC that includes a target to reach GHG neutrality by 2050 (Government of Argentina, 2022a). Argentina’s net zero target does not cover most of the good practice elements identified by the CAT net zero methodology. The target explicitly covers all gases and sectors of the economy, but the government has failed to disclose other key information such as the role of carbon dioxide removals.