Argentina

Two and a half years into President Javier Milei’s government, Argentina continues to dismantle the institutional architecture required to implement climate policy at the national level. Argentina is also one of the last countries assessed by the CAT that has not submitted its 2035 NDC long after the official deadline. From the latest restructuring of the environment sub-secretariat, it remains unclear to what extent the country will continue to have the human and financial resources to implement its existing climate policies. Overall, the CAT rates Argentina’s climate targets and policies as “Highly insufficient”.

Argentina’s overall rating has improved from “Critically insufficient” to “Highly insufficient” since our last assessment. However, this change does not reflect Argentina’s new climate action, but is the result of lower historical emissions, driven by Argentina’s recent recession as well as by methodological improvements to their GHG inventory.

As a result of these changes, Argentina’s projected emissions in 2030 are now lower than in our previous estimates, reaching 361 MtCO₂e (excl. LULUCF). This means that the country could meet its 2030 NDC target with its current policies. As mentioned above, the lower emissions estimates do not reflect efforts toward decarbonisation but rather lower economic activity. This implies that, should Argentina manage to restart economic growth in the coming years, its emissions would likely climb back up and its NDC target would once again be out of reach under current policies. Additionally, it is unclear to what extent existing policies can continue to be implemented in a context of drastic reductions both in human and financial resources dedicated to climate policy in the government.

Since taking office in December 2023, President Milei’s administration has consistently deprioritised climate policy through major institutional restructuring. The former Ministry of Environment was downgraded to a sub‑secretariat, later moved under the Chief of Staff’s office, and eventually stripped of key technical bodies. In April 2026, the government dissolved both the National Directorate for Sustainable Development and Climate Management and the Directorate for Climate Impact, changes that have weakened the institutions responsible for planning, monitoring and implementation of climate policy.

During his presidential campaign, President Milei stated that he does not believe in human‑induced climate change, signalled that his government would not prioritise climate policy and suggested that Argentina might withdraw from the Paris Agreement. While the administration has since clarified that Argentina will remain in the Agreement, it has yet to submit its 2035 NDC, adding to uncertainty about the country’s future direction on climate policy.

At the same time, the administration continues to support the expansion of fossil fuel exploration and exports. The Argentinian government aims to expand both its oil and fossil gas sector, with plans to become a global player in the oil and LNG markets and grow its trade balance from USD 6 billion in 2024 to USD 44 billion in 2035. As part of its incentive scheme for large investments (RIGI), the government aims to attract foreign investment to further exploit its Vaca Muerta shale fields and to develop the necessary infrastructure to be able to increase production and exports.

Argentina submitted a new inventory to the UNFCCC as part of its first Biennial Transparency Report (BTR1), which includes methodological updates that altered previously reported figures, especially in the agriculture sector. Based on this latest national inventory, PRIMAP provides estimates for 2023 and 2024, which shows that emissions in Argentina actually dropped again after the post-pandemic rebound. Between 2022 and 2024, emissions declined by around 4%, contrasting with our previous assessment which projected that emissions would increase by 7% over the same period.

In fact, in our previous assessment, we did not yet have actual data available for 2023 and 2024 and therefore relied on external projections, which assumed a steady level of economic growth. This assumption proved incorrect. In recent years, Argentina entered a recession, driven by hyperinflation and the government’s subsequent austerity measures, which caused the economy to contract more than expected. With actual data for 2023 and 2024 now available through the new inventory, emissions in both years are much lower than in our previous projections.

Argentina set a target for renewable electricity generation (excluding large hydro) to reach at least 20% of total consumption by 2025, included in Law 27.191 published in 2015. However, after major policies to support the target, such as the renewables auction system (RenovAr) were abandoned in 2019, Argentina has fallen short of its target, with total power generation from modern renewables reaching only 15% in 2025.

Despite this, there have been some positive developments worth highlighting in Argentina:

• Subsidies for power and fossil gas have continued to progressively decrease, including plans to mitigate the impact on the most vulnerable groups of the population. However, it remains unclear how successful those plans are in protecting these groups.
• Electric and hybrid vehicle sales keep growing substantially year-on-year in Argentina, reaching 26,000 new vehicles in 2025. This is partially incentivised by a government decree allowing up to 50,000 new low-emissions vehicles per year to enter the country without tariffs.

To increase its climate ambition, Argentina should change course in many areas, including:

• Submitting its 2035 NDC with new and more ambitious targets both for 2030 and 2035.
• Re-committing to its existing domestic climate policies and making resources available for their implementation.
• Phasing out support for upstream oil and fossil gas developments.
• Setting out a transition plan for the energy sector and reviving existing renewables policies such as the RenovAr auction scheme.
• Setting out a low-carbon transition plan for the land sector, including agriculture, livestock and land use change.
• Restoring key offices in charge of climate action

The CAT ratings compare country’s targets and policies to (1) its fair share contribution to climate change mitigation considering a range of equity principles including responsibility, capability and equality, and (2) what is technically and economically feasible using modelled domestic pathways which are based on global least-cost climate change mitigation.

Comparing a country’s fair share ranges and modelled domestic pathways provides insights into which governments should provide climate finance and which should receive it. Developed countries with large responsibility for historical emissions and high per-capita emissions, must not only implement ambitious climate action domestically but must also support climate action in developing countries with lower historical responsibility, capability, and lower per-capita emissions.

The CAT rates Argentina’s climate targets and policies together as “Highly insufficient”. The “Highly insufficient” rating indicates that Argentina’s climate policies and commitments are not consistent with the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C temperature limit and lead to rising, rather than falling, emissions.

Argentina is far from meeting its fair share contribution to climate change mitigation. Argentina’s NDC and policies and action are both rated as “Highly insufficient” when compared to its fair share. Argentina’s NDC is rated as “Highly insufficient” when compared to our modelled domestic pathways.

Argentina’s overall rating has improved from “Critically insufficient” to “Highly insufficient” since our last assessment. This change does not reflect new climate action, but is the result of lower historical emissions, driven by both the downward revision of inventory data and a bigger than expected economic downturn.

To get a better rating Argentina need to set more ambitious climate targets and establish associated policies that can curb the growth in national emissions and set them on a downward trend.

We rate Argentina’s policies and actions as “Highly insufficient” when compared to modelled domestic emissions pathways. The “Highly insufficient” rating indicates that Argentina’s climate policies and action in 2030 are not at all consistent with the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C temperature limit and lead to rising, rather than falling, emissions. If all countries were to follow Argentina's approach, warming could reach over 3°C and up to 4°C.

Like its overall rating, Argentina’s policies and action rating has improved from “Critically insufficient” to “Highly insufficient” since our last assessment, but this does not reflect any additional climate action.

Argentina submitted a new inventory to the UNFCCC as part of its first Biennial Transparency Report (BTR1), which includes methodological updates that altered previously reported figures, especially in the agriculture sector. The new inventory provides data for 2023 and 2024, which shows that emissions in Argentina actually dropped again after the post-pandemic rebound. Between 2022 and 2024, emissions declined by around 4%, contrasting with our previous assessment which projected that emissions would increase by 7% over the same period.

According to our new analysis, which includes Argentina’s latest inventory, the country is now on track to meet its NDC target with current policies. However, a significant part of the downwards correction compared to our previous assessment is because Argentina’s economy contracted sharply instead of growing, reducing energy use and industrial activity and therefore emissions.

This implies that, should Argentina manage to restart economic growth in the coming years, its emissions would likely climb back up and its NDC target would once again be out of reach under current policies. Additionally, it is unclear to what extent existing policies can continue to be implemented in a context of drastic reductions both in human and financial resources dedicated to climate policy in the government.

There have been very few climate policy developments since our previous update. Argentina continues to reform its household energy subsidy regulation in efforts to reduce public spending, as well as its public transport subsidies. High international oil prices also breathe life into Argentina’s growing oil and fossil gas sectors, which are starting to become a major contributor to Argentina’s currency reserve accumulation goals.

The full policies and action analysis can be found here.

We rate Argentina’s NDC target of “not exceeding the net emission of 349 million tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent in 2030” from its NDC updated in November 2021 as “Highly insufficient” when compared with modelled domestic emissions pathways, or what they will do within their own territory.

The “Highly insufficient” rating indicates that Argentina’s NDC target in 2030 leads to rising, rather than falling, emissions and is not at all consistent with limiting warming to 1.5°C. If all countries were to follow Argentina’s approach, warming could reach over 3°C and up to 4°C by end of the century.

We rate Argentina’s 2030 NDC target from November 2021 as “Highly insufficient” when compared with its fair share contribution to climate action. The “Highly insufficient” rating indicates that Argentina’s NDC target in 2030 leads to rising, rather than falling, emissions and is not at all consistent with limiting warming to 1.5°C. If all countries were to follow Argentina’s approach, warming could reach over 3°C and up to 4°C by the end of the century.

Argentina’s average share of emissions from Land Use, Land-Use Change and Forestry (LULUCF) over the past 20 years is more than 20% of the country’s total emissions. Between 2014 and 2022, however, emissions from LULUCF started falling to as low as 3% of total emissions in 2019. This indicates that Argentina’s recent approach to curbing land use emissions may have been working, and would need to be maintained, updated, and reinforced. For more information about forestry activities in Argentina, please see the policies and action section.

We evaluate the net zero target as: Poor.

In November 2022, Argentina submitted a long-term strategy (LTS) to the UNFCCC that includes a target to reach GHG neutrality by 2050 (Government of Argentina, 2022a). Argentina’s net zero target does not cover most of the good practice elements identified by the CAT net zero methodology. The target explicitly covers all gases and sectors of the economy, but the government has failed to disclose other key information such as the role of carbon dioxide removals.