Canada

Canada’s climate action is headed in the wrong direction, with the federal government under Mark Carney’s leadership steadily dismantling climate policies. Emissions have effectively plateaued in recent years and projected emissions reductions under current and planned policies fall well short of what is required to meet Canada’s climate targets.

The impact of this policy rollback is stark: two years ago, planned policies were projected to cut emissions by 30% below 2005 levels by 2030, compared to just 14% in our latest assessment. Carney has admitted that Canada will not meet its 2030 and 2035 targets under his government’s plan.

Meanwhile, Canada continues to approve and support new oil and gas infrastructure, despite the need for a rapid, managed transition away from fossil fuels. All of this is unfolding as the country experiences yet another devastating wildfire season. The CAT continues to rate Canada’s climate action as “Highly Insufficient”.

While the federal government made progress by implementing new methane regulations and reinstating some consumer rebates for electric vehicles and home energy retrofits, these policy gains are far outweighed by widespread policy weakening and rollbacks.

Key examples of climate policy backsliding include the removal of the consumer carbon price, cancellation of the planned cap on oil and gas emissions, repeal of the Electric Vehicle Availability Standard, a weaker industrial carbon pricing trajectory, and an early end to the Two Billion Trees Program. Federal-provincial compromises and carve-outs, most notably through the Canada-Alberta Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) and subsequent agreements, have further undermined federal climate policies. Prime Minister Mark Carney’s government has dismantled or weakened many of the climate policies introduced and implemented by the previous Liberal government.

As a result, emissions projections under both current and proposed policies have worsened, putting Canada further off track from meeting its 2030 climate target. Under current policies, emissions in 2030 are projected to be 662 MtCO₂e (excl. LULUCF) or 13% below 2005 levels. This is a far cry from the 431–498 MtCO₂e level Canada needs to meet its NDC target.

While the current policy outlook for 2030 has worsened compared to last year’s assessment (where current policies were estimated to deliver a 15% reduction below 2005 levels), the outlook under planned policies is even less favourable. While last year’s assessment found that, if implemented fully, proposed policies could reduce emissions by 26% below 2005 levels by 2030, this year’s projections showing little to no additional emission reductions beyond what current policies deliver (13% to 14%). Governments at all levels need to reprioritise climate action and implement new and strengthened policies to put the country on track.

Even if fully achieved, Canada’s 2030 target itself is not ambitious enough to be 1.5°C compatible. Its 2035 target, submitted in February 2025, represents only a modest increase in emissions reductions compared to the 2030 target, with the gap between Canada’s targets and a 1.5°C compatible pathway widening further by 2035. Prime Minister Mark Carney has so far been unwilling to recommit to either the 2030 or 2035 targets and has conceded that, under his energy plan, Canada’s emissions will be higher in the near term than previously projected. If Canada were to officially abandon its 2030 and 2035 targets, it would be the first country after the United States to do so.

Canada’s overall CAT rating remains unchanged at ‘Highly Insufficient,’ though weakened policy ambition, slow implementation, and a widening gap between current emissions projections and Canada’s 2030 target has worsened its Policies and Action rating to ‘Critically Insufficient’.

Despite another devastating wildfire season, Canada continues to expand its fossil fuel industry. The federal government is moving ahead with the Bay du Nord offshore oil and fossil gas megaproject, which is now targeting first production in 2031, and continues to provide support for major fossil fuel companies and infrastructure, including the enormously expensive Trans Mountain pipeline.

The federal government is also advancing several major fossil fuel infrastructure projects. LNG Canada Phase 2 was referred to the Major Projects Office in 2025, and in September 2026 LNG Canada announced the project was moving forward. On October 1, 2026, the government designated a proposed West Coast Oil Pipeline as a project of national interest, to be fast tracked under the new Building Canada Act.

Under Prime Minister Mark Carney, the federal government is also doubling down on carbon capture and storage (CCS) as a central pillar of its oil and gas strategy – backing the Pathways CCS project while expanding the CCS investment tax credit to include projects that use captured CO₂ for enhanced oil recovery. These technologies are nowhere near the scale and commercial viability needed to deliver on the needed emission reductions.

Crude oil production continues to rise, reaching record levels in 2025, while coal exports stayed elevated after their record-breaking surge in 2023. Canada also continues to export oil and fossil gas at such a scale that the resulting emissions from their final combustion exceed the country’s total domestic emissions: while these exported emissions are not included in the CAT’s rating they still contribute to warming.

Canada is still implementing some policies that will support the deployment of proven low-carbon technologies, though major gaps remain in ambition and implementation:

• The industrial carbon pricing scheme remains the central policy driving emissions reductions in industry and is projected to deliver the largest share of emissions reductions by 2030. However, the federal government has weakened the carbon price trajectory and design flaws, provincial resistance, and new flexibilities under the Canada-Alberta agreement undermine its effectiveness.
• In the electricity sector, the Clean Electricity Regulations alongside a suite of additional government programmes and policies, are driving the transition to low-carbon power. Yet exemptions for fossil gas generation, continued investment in gas-fired plants, the suspension of the regulations in Alberta, and a commitment by the federal government to review and amend the regulations all cast doubt on whether they will deliver the emissions reductions originally planned.
• In the transport sector, the federal government has re-introduced consumer subsidies for electric vehicles and plans to replace the repealed ZEV sales mandate with new greenhouse gas emissions standards for vehicles. However, these standards are expected to be less stringent than the original ZEV mandate and deliver slower uptake of zero-emissions vehicles.
• In the buildings sector, government programmes are targeting retrofits to drive energy efficiency improvements and electrification in low- to middle-income households and among renters, but several support programmes have sunset, and plans to implement new regulations to phase out oil heating systems in new construction have been cancelled.

To move forward ambitiously on climate action, Canada should:

• Strengthen its 2030 and 2035 emission reduction targets to align with a 1.5°C compatible pathway and at the very least confirm the existing ones.
• Ensure that existing policies are implemented in full, with no exemptions or carve-outs — including methane regulations, industrial carbon pricing systems, and the clean electricity regulations.
• Stop approving new oil and fossil gas projects, end subsidies, and establish a long-term vision to phase out fossil fuel production altogether.
• Stop enabling coal exports from the US passing through its territory for shipment from Canadian ports.
• Prioritise proven, cost-effective solutions like renewables and electrification as the backbone of decarbonisation.
• Limit reliance on uncertain and costly CCS, prioritising a swift transition from fossil fuels to clean energy.

Unless Canada raises the ambition of its 2030 and 2035 targets and decisively implements and strengthens its climate policies to achieve real emission reductions, the country will remain off track to meet its climate commitments and do its part to limit warming to 1.5°C.

The CAT ratings compare country’s targets and policies to (1) its fair share contribution to climate change mitigation considering a range of equity principles including responsibility, capability and equality, and (2) what is technically and economically feasible using modelled domestic pathways which are based on global least-cost climate change mitigation.

Comparing a country’s fair share ranges and modelled domestic pathways provides insights into which governments should provide climate finance and which should receive it. Developed countries with large responsibility for historical emissions and high per-capita emissions, must not only implement ambitious climate action domestically but must also support climate action in developing countries with lower historical responsibility, capability, and lower per-capita emissions.

The CAT rates Canada’s climate target, policies and climate finance as ‘Highly Insufficient’ overall. The ‘Highly insufficient’ rating indicates that Canada’s climate policies and commitments are not consistent with the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C temperature limit.

Canada’s 2030 emission reduction target is consistent with 2°C of warming when compared to modelled domestic emission pathways. However, Canada’s current policies, even if fully implemented, are not enough to meet this target and would instead result in a pathway consistent with more than 4°C of warming. This highlights a significant gap between Canada’s stated ambitions and its current policy trajectory. Canada is also far from meeting its fair-share contributions to climate change.

To improve its rating, Canada should strengthen its 2030 emissions reduction target to at least 52% below 2005 levels, implement policies necessary to reach this goal, and significantly increase its financial support for climate action in developing countries in line with its fair share contribution to climate change mitigation.

The rating for Canada’s policies and action deteriorated to ‘Critically insufficient’, as policy delays and rollbacks continue to undermine progress. Emissions in 2030 are projected to reach 662 MtCO₂e (excl. LULUCF) or approximately 13% below 2005 levels. This is far above Canada’s 2030 target of 431–483 MtCO₂e and the 368 MtCO₂e level needed for 1.5°C compatibility. If all countries followed Canada’s current approach, warming could exceed 4°C.

Since our last update in November 2025, Canada has finalised methane regulations in both the upstream oil and gas and waste sectors, but these advances are overshadowed by a broader weakening of climate policies across the country.

The federal government has cancelled the planned cap on oil and gas emissions, repealed the ZEV sales mandate in favour of a proposed greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions standard that will target slower electric vehicle (EV) uptake, adopted a lower carbon price trajectory that falls well short of 1.5°C-compatible levels, and cancelled the Two Billion Trees Program.

A memorandum of understanding signed between the federal and Alberta governments further undercuts the integrity of federal climate policy by making concessions on industrial carbon pricing, the Clean Electricity Regulations, and oil and gas methane regulations, and by sending a clear signal to other provinces that these federal benchmarks are negotiable. As a result, Canada’s emissions reduction plan now relies on a narrower and less robust set of measures, heavily concentrated in industry and riddled with exemptions.

Prime Minister Mark Carney has removed or weakened key elements of the climate policy architecture of the Trudeau era, including cancelling the consumer carbon price as his first move in office. Rather than advancing climate action, Carney has shifted the government’s focus towards continued growth of oil and gas production, supported by reliance on uncertain CCS technologies.

Carney has himself acknowledged that, under his leadership, Canada’s emissions will be higher in the coming years than previously projected (Boynton, 2026). Without a decisive shift away from fossil fuel expansion and implementation of new and strengthened policies, Canada is set to fall even further behind its 2030 and 2035 targets and remain well off track from a 1.5°C-compatible pathway.

For more detail, see the policies and action section here.

In February 2025, Canada submitted its latest NDC to the UNFCCC, outlining its new target to reduce emissions by 45–50% below 2005 levels by 2035. However, the submission did not increase ambition for 2030, with Canada maintaining its existing commitment to cut emissions by at least 40–45% below 2005 levels by 2030 (incl. LULUCF). For more information on Canada’s 2035 target, see our full analysis in the 2035 tab here.

The 2030 target falls short of the emissions reduction of at least 52% below 2005 levels (excl. LULUCF) needed to be 1.5°C compatible on a global least-cost basis. The CAT rates Canada’s domestic target as ‘Almost sufficient’. Canada is not on track to meet this target under current policies, nor do its planned policies fully close the gap.

From a fair share perspective, we rate Canada’s 2030 NDC target as ‘Highly Insufficient’, meaning it is not at all consistent with its fair share of the global mitigation effort to limit warming to 1.5°C. If all countries were to follow Canada’s approach, warming could reach over 3°C and up to 4°C. Canada needs to strengthen its domestic target and provide additional financial support for emissions reductions in developing countries to improve on this rating.

The CAT’s assessment of Canada’s total fair share contribution takes into account its emissions reduction target and its climate finance. Canada’s climate finance is sufficient to improve its fair share target rating, and the CAT rates Canada’s overall fair share contribution as ‘Insufficient’.

Canada’s international public climate finance contribution is rated ‘Insufficient’. In 2021, the government announced a doubling of its climate finance over the 2021–2026 period and in 2026 announced a package of new measures to support developing countries. However, Canada retains a poor rating, as its contributions to date have been low compared to its fair share. Canada also continues to provide support for fossil fuel developments abroad. To improve its rating, Canada needs to stop funding fossil fuels overseas and strengthen its targets for, and delivery of, climate finance.

Land use and forests play a complex role in Canada’s greenhouse gas balance, acting as both emission sources and sinks. Historically, the sector has been both a net source and a net sink of emissions, most recently acting as a net source of 4 MtCO₂e in 2024 and a net sink of 9 MtCO₂e in 2023. Despite this variability, the federal government is projecting significant emission removals from the sector by 2030, reaching as high as 37 MtCO₂e in 2030, including both the government’s LULUCF accounting contribution and assumed removals from nature-based climate solutions (Environment and Climate Change Canada, 2025a).

We highlight this sector for Canada because the federal government places considerable importance on land use and forestry in meeting its 2030 climate target. Given the sector’s scale, even moderate changes in emissions or removals can significantly impact Canada’s overall greenhouse gas balance. As such, land use and forestry could either act as a major source of emissions or, with effective management, become a key contributor to achieving Canada’s climate goals. Either way, Canada should present a separate target for LULUCF to improve transparency.

Canada passed the Canadian Net-Zero Emissions Accountability Act in June 2021, enshrining its 2050 net-zero target—as well as its 2030 target—into law. Canada updated its long-term strategy in October 2022. The strategy explores a number of different scenarios capable of achieving net-zero emissions in 2050, but neither sets a particular pathway for the country to follow nor outlines policies and measures needed to achieve its net zero target.

Reliance on LULUCF and carbon dioxide removal (CDR) could be as high as 44% of Canada’s emissions in 2024 (or 301 MtCO₂e), which calls into question the credibility of the target (Environment and Climate Change Canada, 2022). Under all scenarios, Canada is still producing and exporting oil and fossil gas in 2050.

We evaluate the net zero target’s comprehensiveness as ‘Average’. Full details of the assessment are here.