Indonesia pledged to reduce emissions by 26% below business-as-usual (BAU) unilaterally and by 41% with sufficient international support. With current policies in place, it will likely not achieve the pledge, however the uncertainty of LULUCF emissions makes an evaluation difficult.
Indonesia proposed to cut emissions by 26% by 2020 from business-as-usual (BAU) levels. The target was proposed in September 2009 and submitted to the Copenhagen Accord on 30 January 2010. A large proportion of these reductions would come from reducing deforestation. In April 2011, Indonesia clarified that, in addition to its unilateral 26% target, it proposes a 41% reduction below BAU target conditional to international support for Nationally Appropriate Mitigation Actions (NAMAs)1.
Currently implemented policies are expected to decrease 2020 emissions by around 13% compared to BAU. Emission levels including LULUCF are expected to reach 2,540 MtCO2e in 2020, with 60% of these coming from the land use sector. The most relevant policy included in current policy projections for Indonesia is the National Energy Policy, which sets up plans for future energy supply. In February 2014, this legislation was updated to target an increase of renewable energy to 23% of primary energy supply and decrease oil and coal consumption by 2025 (LGS Online, 2014). The target is supported by feed-in tariffs for renewable electricity generation and a biofuel quota. From 2011 to 2012, the share of renewable energy has increased from 3% to 5% in Indonesia (Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources, 2013). Another important sector for mitigation of GHG in Indonesia is LULUCF which is partially addressed under current legislation. Margono et al (2014) still find that the annual forest cover loss has been increasing over the last decade, with an acceleration in the trend in recent years. Emission reductions expected through current programmes are difficult to assess as the data uncertainty is high for this sector.
We used data on historic emissions and projections from the 2nd national communication, submitted in January 2011 and updated in January 2012 (Ministry of Environment, 2010). The data includes emissions from peat fires. As values for emissions from peat fire vary significantly according to different studies named in the national communication, we used the average of all these studies for the years 2000 to 2005. Data for 1990 to 1994 is available in Indonesia’s Initial National Communication, however the document states various issues related to lack of data and methodology, topics that have been significantly improved in the 2nd National Communication. The data before 2000 therefore has an especially high uncertainty.
FAO reports significantly higher emissions from land use in the earlier years (1990 – 2000), while it is approximately of the same size afterwards. We show national data in the graph to be in line with national reporting.
Current policy projections
We calculate the impact of the renewable energy target World Energy Outlook special report on South East Asia, which provides a scenario for Indonesia including the updated target. We do not assume additional emission reductions in the forestry sector, given the uncertainty of data and unclear effectiveness of policies.
Government of Indonesia (2010). Indonesia's pledge to the Copenhagen Accord. Compiled in: Compilation of information on nationally appropriate mitigation actions to be implemented by Parties not included in Annex I to the Convention, UNFCCC (2011)
IEA (2014), World Energy Outlook special report for Southeast Asia. International Energy Agency. Paris.
L. G. S. ONLINE. 2014. House of Representatives Passes National Energy Policy.
Margono, B. A., Potapov, P. V., Turubanova, S, Stolle, F, Hansen, M. C. (2014). Primary forest cover loss in Indonesia over 2000–2012. Nature Climate Change. Vol 4. DOI: 10.1038/NCLIMATE2277
Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources of Republic of Indonesia (2013). Indonesia Energy Outlook 2013.
Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources of Republic of Indonesia (2009). Indonesia Energy Outlook.
Ministry of Environment, Indonesia (2010). Indonesia Second National Communication Under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change.
UNFCCC (2011b). Information from the workshop on nationally appropriate mitigation actions submitted by developing country Parties, underlying assumptions, and any support needed for implementation of these actions, as requested by decision 1/CP.16, paragraph 51, held on 4 April 2011 in Bangkok Ministry of Environment (2010)
1 Nationally Appropriate Mitigation Actions (NAMAs) are voluntary measures undertaken by developing countries to contribute to greenhouse gas emission mitigation. The concept was introduced in 2007 at the 13th session of the Conference of the Parties (COP) in Bali, Indonesia.