Indonesia has pledged to reduce emissions by 2020 by 26% below BAU unilaterally and by 41% with sufficient international support. The pledge is rated “medium”. With current policies in place, it is not likely to achieve this pledge. However, the uncertainty of LULUCF emissions makes an evaluation difficult.
Indonesia has proposed to cut emissions by 26% by 2020 from "business as usual" (BAU) levels. It proposed this target in September 2009 and submitted it to the Copenhagen Accord on 30 January 2010. A large proportion of these reductions would come from reducing deforestation. In April 2011, Indonesia clarified that, in addition to its unilateral 26% target, it proposed a 41% reduction below BAU target conditional on international support for Nationally Appropriate Mitigation Actions (NAMAs).
We rated Indonesia’s pledge for 2020 “medium”. The lower end of the pledge is close to the “sufficient“ range and is, however, conditional on financial support, which we also rated medium. The pledge is in line with effort sharing approaches that focus on equal cumulative/equal per capita emissions. Approaches that focus on capability and costs would require more stringent reduction
Currently implemented policies are expected to decrease 2020 emissions by around 13% compared to BAU. Emissions levels including LULUCF are expected to reach 2,540 MtCO2e in 2020, with 60% of these coming from the land use sector. The most relevant policy included in Indonesia’s current policy projections is the National Energy Policy, which sets up plans for future energy supply. In February 2014, this legislation was updated to target an increase of renewable energy to 23% of primary energy supply and decrease oil and coal consumption by 2025 (LGS Online, 2014). The target is supported by feed-in tariffs for renewable electricity generation and a biofuel quota. From 2011 to 2012, the share of renewable energy in Indonesia has increased from 3% to 5% (Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources, 2013). The CAT calculations thus assume that Indonesia achieves this relatively ambitious target of 23%, although further improvements of the legislative system could enhance current efforts (compare IEA 2015).
Another important sector for mitigation of GHG in Indonesia is LULUCF, which is partially addressed under current legislation. Margono et al (2014) still find that the annual forest cover loss has been increasing over the last decade, with an acceleration in the trend in recent years. Emissions reductions expected through current programmes are difficult to assess as there is a high uncertainty around the data for this sector.
We used data on historic emissions and projections from the 2nd national communication, submitted in January 2011 and updated in January 2012 (Ministry of Environment, 2010). The data includes emissions from peat fires. As values for emissions from peat fires vary significantly according to different studies named in the national communication, we used the average of all these studies for the years 2000 to 2005. Data for 1990 to 1994 is available in Indonesia’s Initial National Communication. However, the document states various issues related to lack of data and methodology, topics that have been significantly improved in the 2nd National Communication. The data before 2000 therefore has an especially high uncertainty.
The FAO reports significantly higher emissions from land use in the earlier years (1990 – 2000), while they are approximately the same size in later years. We show national data in the graph to be in line with national reporting.
Current policy projections
We calculate the impact of the renewable energy target from the World Energy Outlook special report on South East Asia, which provides a scenario for Indonesia - including the updated target. We do not assume additional emissions reductions in the forestry sector, given the uncertainty of data and the lack of clarity around the effectiveness of policies.
Government of Indonesia (2010). Indonesia's pledge to the Copenhagen Accord. Compiled in: Compilation of information on nationally appropriate mitigation actions to be implemented by Parties not included in Annex I to the Convention, UNFCCC (2011)
IEA (2014), World Energy Outlook special report for Southeast Asia. International Energy Agency. Paris.
IEA (2015), Indonesia 2015 – Energy Policies Beyond IEA Countries. International Energy Agency. Paris.
L. G. S. ONLINE. 2014. House of Representatives Passes National Energy Policy.
Margono, B. A., Potapov, P. V., Turubanova, S, Stolle, F, Hansen, M. C. (2014). Primary forest cover loss in Indonesia over 2000–2012. Nature Climate Change. Vol 4. DOI: 10.1038/NCLIMATE2277
Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources of Republic of Indonesia (2013). Indonesia Energy Outlook 2013.
Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources of Republic of Indonesia (2009). Indonesia Energy Outlook
Ministry of Environment, Indonesia (2010). Indonesia Second National Communication Under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. UNFCCC (2011b). Information from the workshop on nationally appropriate mitigation actions submitted by developing country Parties, underlying assumptions, and any support needed for implementation of these actions, as requested by decision 1/CP.16, paragraph 51, held on 4 April 2011 in Bangkok Ministry of Environment (2010)
1 Nationally Appropriate Mitigation Actions (NAMAs) are voluntary measures undertaken by developing countries to contribute to greenhouse gas emission mitigation. The concept was introduced in 2007 at the 13th session of the Conference of the Parties (COP) in Bali, Indonesia.