Kazakhstan

Kazakhstan enhanced its long-term climate ambition by enshrining its net zero by 2060 target into law in February 2023, but then failed to increase short-term ambition in its updated NDC submission to the UNFCCC in June 2023, leaving its previously modest emission reduction targets for 2030 unchanged. Recent policy developments pull in opposite directions and continue to support fossil fuels more, driving emissions up.

CAT projections show that Kazakhstan will not meet its climate targets, as emissions will grow until 2035 (at least) under current policies. As a result, the CAT rates Kazakhstan’s overall climate action as “Insufficient”.

Kazakhstan’s economy and government rely heavily on fossil fuels for energy, industry, exports, and revenue. As a result, Kazakhstan has the world's 16th highest per capita and fourth highest per GDP emissions. However, aging and poorly regulated fossil fuel infrastructure and industries are failing to meet the needs of citizens who have contended with energy shortages more regularly in recent years. Renewable energy and more efficient technologies are helping to mitigate energy supply shortages and emissions, though Kazakhstan’s vast renewable resources largely remain untapped.

To limit global warming to 1.5ºC, the government need to build on its success with scaling up renewables in recent years. Though starting from a low base, renewable energy generation has trebled since 2019 and increased 20-fold since 2011. Policies such as the emissions trading system (ETS) and renewable energy auctions have contributed to this shift. The government raised the 2030 renewable energy target from 10 to 15% in 2021.

In addition to policies supporting renewable energy, the government will need to roll back those that support fossil fuels to avoid carbon lock-in and reduce transition risks. For example, the government would need to revisit plans for new coal power generation (announced at the end of 2022), the introduction of new fiscal incentives for fossil fuel exploration and production (most recent additions in 2023), and depending on fossil gas to meet its energy needs (Republic of Kazakhstan, 2023a).

To improve the credibility and implementation of Kazakhstan’s long-term climate ambitions, the government could prioritise the following actions:

• Develop a clear and enforceable net zero policy implementation plan: the government needs to translate its net zero by 2060 strategy into an implementable and enforceable plan to achieve its goals. Legally binding sectoral targets, well timed and coordinated policy packages, and clear accountability and robust review processes are features that could help.
• Increase ambition of short-term targets in the NDC and other policies. Short-term emissions reduction and related targets have not increased - or increased only marginally - in the last decade and can no longer be considered ambitious. Kazakhstan would need update such targets as soon as possible.
• Boost renewable energy roll-out. Recent high-pace growth in renewable energy suggests there is significant potential to scale up. Further Increasing renewable energy targets is a clear first step, which would allow for more auctions. Additional efforts should focus on ensuring grid capacity keeps up with renewable energy growth, including extending the network in poorly connected northern regions.
• Develop a transparent 1.5ºC compatible coal phase-out plan for a just transition. Coal accounts for 55% of emissions, 70% of power generation, is the predominant source of heating in homes, and a major employer. A coal phase-out plan will be critical to guiding such a transition and ensuring it is just.

The CAT rates Kazakhstan’s climate targets and policies as “Insufficient”. The “Insufficient” rating indicates that Kazakhstan’s climate policies and commitments need substantial improvements to be consistent with the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C temperature limit.

Kazakhstan’s NDC is composed of a conditional and unconditional targets. Its conditional NDC target is rated as “Almost sufficient” against modelled domestic pathways, and its unconditional NDC target is rated as “Insufficient” against its fair share contribution to climate action. To achieve its targets, Kazakhstan would need to significantly cut its emissions through more ambitious policies and action.

We rate Kazakhstan’s policies and action as “Insufficient” when compared to its fair-share contribution. The “Insufficient” rating indicates that Kazakhstan’s climate policies and action in 2030 need substantial improvements to be consistent with limiting warming to 1.5°C. If all countries were to follow Kazakhstan’s approach, warming would reach over 2°C and up to 3°C. Kazakhstan needs to implement more stringent policies, for which it will need additional support.

Kazakhstan’s emissions under current policy projections continue to increase, in contradiction to the government’s NDC and its net zero targets. Plans for further development of and investment in fossil fuels, including the construction of new coal power plants and ramping up fossil gas and oil production, are particularly concerning. These plans fail to acknowledge the short-term steps necessary to keep the window open for a 1.5°C-consistent GHG emissions pathway, could deepen carbon lock-in, and increases transition risks.

A recent uptick in renewable energy generation capacity, enabled by supportive government policies, offers some hope. However, renewable energy penetration is still low at only 2% of total primary energy and around 11% of power generation, of which more than half comes from existing hydropower. Still, at around 2.5 GW, solar and wind power capacity have almost trebled since 2019 and government targets for 2030 were increased from 10 to 15% in 2021. Kazakhstan is on track to meet these targets.

We rate the conditional NDC target as “Almost sufficient” when compared to modelled emissions pathways. The “Almost sufficient” rating indicates that Kazakhstan’s conditional NDC target in 2030 is not yet consistent with limiting warming to 1.5°C but could be, with moderate improvements. If all countries were to follow Kazakhstan’s approach, warming could be held below—but not well below—2°C.

Kazakhstan did not increase the ambition of its conditional emissions reduction target in its NDC update, submitted to the UNFCCC on 27 June 2023 (Republic of Kazakhstan, 2023c). Government retained an economy-wide emission reduction target for 2030 of 25% relative to the 1990 base year.

We rate the unconditional NDC target as “Insufficient” when compared with its fair share contribution to climate action. The “Insufficient” rating indicates that Kazakhstan’s unconditional NDC target in 2030 needs substantial improvements to be consistent with limiting warming to 1.5°C. Kazakhstan’s target is at the least stringent end of what would be a fair share of global effort and is not consistent with the 1.5°C limit, unless other countries make much deeper reductions and comparably greater effort. If all countries were to follow Kazakhstan’s approach, warming would reach over 2°C and up to 3°C.

Kazakhstan did not increase the ambition of its unconditional emissions reduction target in its NDC update, submitted to the UNFCCC on 27 June 2023 (Republic of Kazakhstan, 2023c). Government retained an economy-wide emission reduction target for 2030 of 15% relative to the 1990 base year.

Kazakhstan first announced its intention to reach “carbon neutrality” by 2060 during the Climate Ambition Summit in December 2020. On 2 February 2023, the President of Kazakhstan approved the resultant Strategy for achieving carbon neutrality by 2060, thereby enshrining the net zero target in law. Kazakhstan has not submitted the strategy as an official long-term strategy (LTS) to the UNFCCC as of November 2023.

There is still significant scope for Kazakhstan to improve the transparency, target architecture, and scope of its carbon neutrality target. We evaluate the net zero target as: “Average”.

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