Norway

Sometimes described as the world’s “greenest” petrostate, Norway combines strong climate policies at home with a fossil fuel export model that shifts much of its climate impact abroad. Norway recently submitted a new NDC target for 2035, which we consider 1.5°C aligned for domestic emissions only, has achieved almost 100% electric vehicle sales in new passenger cars, and provides a relatively high level of international climate finance. At the same time, Norway continues to rely heavily on the production and expansion of oil and gas exports, whose downstream emissions are estimated to be over ten times higher than Norway’s domestic emissions and are not covered by its climate targets.

Norway has long benefited from international accounting that attributes emissions from exported fossil fuels to importing countries, but this year’s major advisory opinion from the International Court of Justice warns that all states have legally binding obligations to reduce emissions and failure to do so could constitute an "internationally wrongful act."

While the CAT does not consider exported emissions in our rating system, the fundamental imbalance between Norway’s domestic climate leadership and continued fossil fuel expansion leaves its overall rating as "Insufficient." For a country with Norway’s wealth and capacity, this rating points to the need for greater ambition to align with global climate goals.

In its latest 2030 NDC update, Norway slightly strengthened its 2030 target to an emissions reduction of at least 55% below 1990 levels, which we rate as “1.5°C compatible” compared to modelled domestic pathways (which are based on global least costs). The gap between our current policy projections and Norway’s 2030 target has decreased compared to our last update, a positive trend, although considerably stronger policies will be needed to meet this target.

A significant boost in 2020 to committed climate finance for developing nations is a welcome outcome, but Norway’s climate finance is still “Insufficient.” There is also much left still to do domestically, as Norway’s current policies and action are rated as “Almost sufficient.” We also rate both Norway’s NDC target compared to fair share and its 2050 target as “Insufficient.” We don't consider the exported emissions from Norwegian oil and gas in our overall “Almost sufficient” rating, as they are counted in the country that burns the fossil fuels.

In June 2025, Norway published its 2035 NDC, where it has committed to reducing emissions by 70-75% below 1990 levels by 2035. While we consider Norway’s 2035 target 1.5°C compatible compared to modelled domestic pathways, a lack of detail on the expected contribution from the land use and forestry sector (LULUCF) and plans to rely on carbon credits raise concerns about the target’s true ambition. Our detailed analysis of the 2035 NDC can be found here.

Some positive developments for Norway since our last assessment include:

• Submitting a 2035 domestic NDC target aligned with 1.5°C. While a lack of detail in its LULUCF contribution and expected use of Article 6 mechanisms is less than ideal, Norway’s targeted level of domestic emissions in 2035 keeps it on a trajectory aligned with the Paris Agreement’s goal of limiting warming to 1.5°C.
• Rapidly electrifying the transport sector. Norway leads the world on electric vehicle (EV) adoption, thanks to a long track record of government support and regulation. It is projected to achieve its 2025 phase-out of fossil fuel vehicle sales on schedule, with fully electric vehicles now accounting for 98% of all new cars sold in November 2025 (Mannes, 2025).
• Aligning with EU standards on emissions from buildings. European policies such as the Energy Performance of Buildings Directive, Ecodesign Directive, and Energy Labelling Framework Regulation of 2017 have been fully implemented in Norway over the last five years. The EU’s Energy Efficiency Directive was revised in 2023 and the latest version is being evaluated by the Norwegian government for adoption in national law.

To improve its rating and strengthen its commitment to climate action, Norway could:

• Commit to phasing out fossil fuels. Norway continues to support an expansion of oil and gas exploration in its already large fossil fuel sector and its exported fossil fuels are a large source of global emissions when their eventual combustion is taken into account. Fossil fuels will need to be phased out in any case and as a wealthy, developed country Norway has more capacity to do so than many other countries, although the government has thus far resisted calls to adopt a fossil fuel phase-out.
• Provide additional climate finance to developing countries. While Norway is the only country that meets its fair climate finance contribution based on the USD 100 bn commitment and committed in 2021 to increase its finance in the post-2020 period, its recent contributions are, on average, lower than they were in the lead-up to the Paris Agreement. If Norway were to deliver the proposed increase, its rating would improve and developing countries would be able to finance more ambitious emissions reductions.
• Develop a plan for reducing methane emissions, especially in the agricultural sector. Methane’s warming potential is far more potent than carbon dioxide in both the short and long term, meaning emissions reductions in this area have an outsized impact on global temperatures. The agricultural sector is Norway’s biggest source of methane, but the government has not yet adopted a plan for reducing these emissions.

The CAT rates Norway’s climate targets, policies and finance as "Almost sufficient." The "Almost sufficient" rating indicates that some elements of Norway’s efforts are world leading, like its updated 2030 emission reduction target, but its climate policies and commitments need substantial improvements to be consistent with the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C temperature limit.

Norway’s updated at least 55% NDC by 2030 reduction target aligns with least cost modelled domestic pathways which limit warming to 1.5°C. To achieve its updated NDC target, Norway will need to enhance its current policies which are currently “Almost sufficient” and in line with 2°C warming. We also rate Norway’s NDC target as “Insufficient” when compared with its fair share contribution to climate action. Norway should commit to provide additional finance to developing countries to meet its fair share contribution. This rating does not consider Norway’s exported emissions from its large oil and gas production sector.

The CAT rates Norway’s policies and action as “Almost sufficient.”

The “Almost sufficient” rating indicates that Norway’s climate policies and action in 2030 are not yet consistent with limiting warming to 1.5°C but could be, with moderate improvements. If all countries were to follow Norway’s approach, warming could be held at—but not well below—2°C.

Current policies are projected to lead to emission levels of 37 MtCO₂e by 2030, which is 27% below emissions in 1990. Norway will need to adopt further policies in order to meet its NDC targets for 2030 and 2035.

Norway’s electricity generation is almost exclusively renewable, with 98% of electricity generated from renewable sources in 2024. 90% of this clean electricity is generated by hydroelectric power plants, with wind and solar providing an additional nearly 10%. Fossil oil and gas remain in the system, accounting for about 2% of power generation. Importantly, the share of oil and gas generation is rising. As a result of its prominent hydropower supply, Norway can play a key role in balancing the electricity grids of neighbouring countries, depending on the weather in a given year.

Norway is home to the biggest hydrocarbon reserves in Europe, making it the world’s fifth largest exporter of crude oil. Its offshore drilling activities have been subject to a domestic carbon tax since 1991. In 1999 the carbon tax was increased and in 2005 Norway joined the EU ETS. By 2018 around 80% of greenhouse gas emissions were taxed, with the highest tax levied on domestic aviation and mineral oil.

Despite Norway’s relatively high carbon tax, its oil and gas sector continues to be a large emissions source. The emissions of that sector that occur in Norway contributed one-quarter of total emissions in 2024 (Norsk Petroleum, 2025a). But the vast majority of emissions from this sector are from combustion abroad. These emissions are not counted under Norway’s emissions inventory but are more than ten times higher than total domestic emissions and represent a blight on Norway’s climate record.

The government has refused to consider a fossil oil and gas phase-out and has allowed for the expansion of drilling and exploration in the Barents Sea. This decision was challenged before the European Court of Human Rights (ECtHR), which ultimately rejected the case in October 2025, but affirmed that Norway must assess the global impact of emissions when awarding new licenses for oil and gas drilling (Adomaitis, 2025). Under the ICJ’s recent advisory opinion on state responsibility in the climate crisis, the expansion of offshore fossil fuel operations could be considered an “internationally wrongful act.”

The full Policies and Action analysis can be found here.

In November 2022, Norway formally updated its 2030 NDC submission, strengthening its 2030 target to at least a 55% reduction below 1990 levels. We rate this strengthened target as compatible with modelled domestic pathways limiting warming to 1.5°C on a globally cost-effective basis.

The “1.5°C compatible” rating indicates that Norway’s 2030 target is consistent with its share of a global least-cost pathway limiting warming to 1.5°C. Our 1.5°C modelled domestic pathway is based on global least-cost mitigation and defines the minimum level of domestic emissions reductions needed to be 1.5°C compatible. This should be taken as the floor, not the ceiling, for domestic ambition.

We rate Norway’s NDC target as “Insufficient” when compared with its fair-share emissions allocation. The “Insufficient” rating indicates that Norway’s NDC target in 2030 needs substantial improvements to be consistent with its fair share of the global mitigation effort to limit warming to 1.5°C. Norway’s target is at the least stringent end of what would be a fair share of global effort and is not consistent with the 1.5°C limit, unless other countries make much deeper reductions and comparably greater effort. If all countries were to follow Norway’s approach, warming would reach over 2°C and up to 3°C.

Given that Norway’s NDC target is 1.5°C compatible when compared to least cost modelled domestic pathways, these improvements should come in the form of additional support for emission reductions achieved in developing countries in the form of finance and technical support.

The CAT’s assessment of Norway’s total fair share contribution takes into account its emissions reduction target and its climate finance. The CAT rates Norway’s overall fair share contribution as "Insufficient.”

We rate Norway’s international public finance contributions as “Insufficient.” Norway is the only country that meets a fair climate finance contribution based on the USD 100 bn commitment and has committed to increase its finance in the period post-2020. However, its recent contributions are, on average, lower than they were in the lead-up to the Paris Agreement. If Norway were to deliver the proposed increase, it would be rated “Almost sufficient.”

Norway has a substantial carbon sink in its forests; equal to approximately half of Norway’s annual emissions. However, net removals have been declining since 2009, prompting the government to outline a number of policy initiatives to protect Norwegian forests in its Climate Action Plan 2021–2030 (Government of Norway, 2021b). These include grants for afforestation, research and development of more productive sapling variants, and targeted fertilisation of forests to enhance growth.

Norway has committed to a 90–95% GHG emissions reduction below 1990 levels by 2050 and included this target in their long-term strategy submitted to the UNFCCC (Government of Norway, 2020b). While the target generally covers the key elements of a net zero target, it should be noted that Norway has not committed to an official net zero target.

Despite not being a formal net zero target, we rate its 2050 target using the CAT’s methodology as "Average."

The full target analysis is available here.