Peru, one of the first 20 countries to ratify the Paris Agreement, specifies an unconditional target and a target conditional upon international assistance in its Nationally Determined Contribution (Government of Peru, 2015b). Both targets address total greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, including those from land use, land use change and forestry (LULUCF), which represent half of Peru’s emissions, and which are set to double by 2030. The unconditional target is a reduction by 20% below business-as-usual (BAU) by 2030, the conditional target a 30% reduction. Based on these targets we rate Peru “Insufficient”.
Based on our assessment, Peru will need to implement additional policies to reach its proposed targets. The “Insufficient” rating means that Peru’s climate commitment is at the least stringent end of what would be a fair share of global effort, and is not consistent with the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C limit, unless other countries make much deeper reductions and comparably greater effort.
Peru hosts about 740,000 square kilometres of forest area, including the largest area of the Amazon rainforest after Brazil (World Bank, 2015). Under business-as-usual, Peru’s LULUCF emissions would almost double between 2012 and 2030—a growth rate not seen before in Peru’s history—the opposite of what is needed to achieve the Paris Agreement target. The need to lower emissions from the LULUCF sector was recognised in Peru’s refined Copenhagen pledge, which targeted achieving net zero LULUCF emissions by 2021. However, this pledge is absent from its NDC.
The Government of Peru projects that 77% of the emission reductions needed to meet the unconditional target will be achieved by measures in the LULUCF sector (particularly to increase enabling conditions for forest management) (Government of Peru, 2015a). Similarly, for the conditional target, the government projects that 71% of the emission reductions will be achieved in the LULUCF sector. Despite this focus on emission reductions in the LULUCF sector, meeting the unconditional and conditional targets would still result in emissions from the LULUCF sector representing 39% and 36% of total emissions incl. LULUCF, respectively.
 In its draft INDC, Peru identified a more ambitious scenario with additional emission reduction potentials. The target emission level under this scenario was 42% below BAU levels by 2030, incl. LULUCF.
Peru ratified the Paris Agreement on 25 July 2016. In its NDC, the government of Peru proposes two targets: an unconditional reduction by 20% below a BAU scenario in 2030 and a conditional (on international finance) reduction of 30% below BAU scenario in the same year, both including LULUCF.
The 2030 emissions level under the unconditional target is 126 MtCO2e. We estimate this translates to be 142%above 1990 levels (56% above 2010 levels) and for the conditional target (113 MtCO2e in 2030) this translates to 118% above 1990 levels (40% above 2010 levels), with both estimates excluding LULUCF. For the unconditional target, the government projects that 77% of the total mitigation will be achieved in the forestry sector. The remaining 23% of mitigation will be achieved in the energy, transport, industrial and waste sectors. For the conditional target, the government projects that 71% of emission reductions will be obtained in the forestry sector.
Peru submitted the three pledges in the shape of NAMAs (Nationally Appropriate Mitigation Actions) under the Copenhagen accord in June 2010 (Government of Peru, 2010) which were later refined in Peru’s communication to the UNFCCC in November 2011 in the following way (GFLAC, 2015):
It was not possible to quantify the impact of these pledges, as baselines were not available. Nonetheless, the LULUCF pledge could have a substantial impact, as the LULUCF sector currently accounts for approximately half of Peru’s total GHG emissions.
These pledges are not mentioned in Peru’s NDC.
 Nationally Appropriate Mitigation Actions (NAMAs) are voluntary measures undertaken by developing countries to contribute to greenhouse gas emission mitigation. The concept was introduced 2007 at the 13th session of the Conference of the Parties (COP) in Bali, Indonesia.
We rate Peru’s unconditional and conditional NDC targets “Insufficient”. The “Insufficient” rating indicates that Peru’s climate commitment in 2030 is not consistent with holding warming to below 2°C, let alone limiting it to 1.5°C as required under the Paris Agreement, and is instead consistent with warming between 2°C and 3°C. If all countries were to follow Peru’s approach, warming would reach over 2°C and up to 3°C. This means Peru’s climate commitment is at the least stringent end of what would be a fair share of global effort, and is not consistent with the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C limit, unless other countries make much deeper reductions and comparably greater effort.
If the CAT were to rate Peru’s projected emissions levels in 2030 under current policies, Peru would also be rated “Insufficient.”
For further information about the risks and impacts associated with the temperature levels of each of the categories click here.
Historical emissions, excluding LULUCF, have increased by 63% from approximately 52 MtCO2e in 1990 to 85 MtCO2e in 2012.
Under currently implemented policies, GHG emissions will increase to 129–139 MtCO2e, excl. LUUCF, by 2030 (149–169% above 1990 levels). These projections take into account policies implemented according to the Third National Communication (Ministerio del Ambiente del Perú, 2016). The minimum range of the current policies projections shows the full mitigation potential of these policies. The maximum range of the current policies projections is equal to the BAU scenario as it is uncertain if the full mitigation potential of those policies would be realised in 2030. However, even under the full mitigation potential of currently implemented policies, Peru will not achieve its NDC targets.
The new Peruvian government, which assumed office after the ratification of the Paris Agreement, has reaffirmed the country’s commitment to the Agreement and is currently developing a new framework law on climate change which foresees the creation of a multi-sectoral commission to regularly update Peru’s NDC (Congreso de la República del Perú, 2017; Radio Nacional del Perú, 2017).
Peru has adopted several policies and planned projects to lower its GHG emissions. The National Strategy on Climate Change establishes 11 strategic national priorities to reduce the adverse impacts of climate change the country faces, including management of ecosystems, mitigation, adaptation and scientific research. The aim of the strategy is to identify potential vulnerabilities where adaptation projects should be implemented, and to define the guidelines for action on mitigation through energy efficiency and renewable energy programmes.
The most relevant sector specific policies are summarised below.
The policy for ‘promotion of investment for the generation of electricity from renewable energies’ builds on the National Strategy on Climate Change and prioritises renewable energy generation as a matter of national interest and public necessity. It mandates the setting of renewable energy targets as a share of electricity consumption in five-year intervals ‘up to 5%’. Since 2009, four renewable energy auctions have contributed towards achieving this target (El Comercio, 2017).
Peru also has a law to promote an efficient use of energy. Law no. 27345 mandates the Ministry of Energy and Mines to carry out activities aimed at encouraging a culture of improving energy efficiency, in coordination with other public institutions and the private sector. It also defines sectoral programmes for the efficient use of energy.
In addition, the Universal Access Plan 2022 subsidises the installation of improved cook stoves in rural areas.
The law to promote a market for biofuels (Law no. 28054) establishes the general framework to promote the development of biofuels with the aim of diversifying the fuel market. However, the current fuel mix quotas (5% for biodiesel and 7.8% for ethanol) are only considered in the BAU scenario (Government of Peru, 2015a).
In the transport sector, Peru has already implemented the construction of the Lima Metro Network and the COFIGAS Programme which supports the conversion of vehicles to run on natural gas. In addition, the Scrappage Programme for Public Transport Vehicles is in place - which seeks to replace old buses by more efficient vehicles.
In 2015, Peru approved a Sustainable Construction Code to improve technical criteria for the design and construction of public and private buildings (Supreme Decree no. 015-2015-VIVIENDA). More recently, energy efficiency labels for household appliances have been introduced (Supreme Decree no. 009-2017-EM).
Peru hosts about 740,000 square kilometres of forests, including the largest area of the Amazon rainforest after Brazil (World Bank, 2015). However, the Amazon is poised to become one of the 11 regions in the world to have more deforestation and forest degradation in 2030 than anywhere else (WWF, 2015), and Peru’s contribution is not insignificant. Deforestation remains a significant problem, particularly in the Andean-Amazon countries like Peru – due to expansion of palm oil, agriculture, illegal logging and informal mining (Swenson et al., 2011; WWF International, 2015).
Peru’s forest law (Law no. no. 29763) and the National Strategy on Protected Areas aim to reduce deforestation through sustainable forest management and improved management of protected areas, respectively. Both policies are included in the current policies projections.
Under current policies projections for the LULUCF sector, emissions from Peruvian deforestation are projected to soar by 81–83% between 2012 and 2030, a growth rate not seen before in Peru’s history. We note that this estimate is significantly higher than previous estimates by CIFOR (CIFOR, 2014). This appears to be at odds with Peru’s refined Copenhagen pledge of reducing LULUCF emissions to zero by 2021. As world LULUCF emissions would need to decrease towards 2030 to fall in the Paris Agreement emissions pathway, Peru needs to address—and prevent—this significant projected increase.
Finally, Peru has further policies in the forestry sector such as the National Forestry and Climate Change Strategy, the law and an executive decree aimed at compensation for services to Ecosystems (Law No. 30215) and the commercialisation of fees by ecosystem conservation (Executive Decree no. 26-2014-SERNANP). However, the emission reduction impact of these policies is unknown.
 Emissions (including and excluding LULUCF) in 2010 reported in the Third National Communication differ from the levels in the NDC as the National GHG Inventory was only updated after the submission of the INDC.
Historical data for 1994 was obtained from UNFCCC GHG Inventory (UNFCCC, 2015) and data for 2000, 2010 and 2012 from Peru’s Third National Communication (Ministerio del Ambiente del Perú, 2016), 1990 emissions are based on figures from IEA, EDGAR and USEPA (European Commission Joint Research Centre (JRC)/Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (PBL), 2013; IEA, 2014; US EPA, 2012).
The pledge for 2030 is based on the NDC and the technical background document of the NDC (Government of Peru, 2015a, 2015b)(Government of Peru, 2015b; Ministerio del Ambiente del Perú, 2015). The pledge covers CO2, N2O and CH4. The contribution of other GHGs is most likely small, so including only the three main gases introduces only a very small error.
The assessment of Peru’s NDC (Government of Peru, 2015b) considers the mitigation split presented in the technical background document of NDC (Government of Peru, 2015a). For the unconditional target, 77% of the 20% emission reductions below BAU will be obtained from measures in the LULUCF sector (particularly to increase enabling conditions for forest management). For the conditional target, 71% of the 30% emission reductions below BAU will be obtained in the LULUCF sector.
The current policy projections reflect policies implemented according to the Third National Communication (Ministerio del Ambiente del Perú, 2016). Their emission reduction potential compared to BAU is outlined in the technical background document of the NDC (Government of Peru, 2015a). The minimum range of the current policies projections shows the full mitigation potential of these policies. The maximum range of the current policies projections is equal to the BAU. Policies implemented according to the Third National Communication, for which no emission reduction potentials are available, are not considered.
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