Philippines

The Philippines stands out as one of the few remaining countries analysed by the Climate Action Tracker that has still not submitted a 2035 target to the UNFCCC. Its current 2030 target, contained in the NDC that the Philippines submitted in 2021, is mostly conditional on international support, and we find that the country's current policies will not stop emissions from continuing to rise through to 2030. The government appears dedicated to building more coal power and expanding fossil gas. While it does have promising early plans for renewables, it could expand these considerably. We rate the Philippines' mitigation targets and action ‘Almost sufficient’ overall.

The Philippines' current 2030 NDC target aims to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 75% below a cumulative business as usual (BAU) pathway for 2020–2030. Only around 3% of the 75% emissions reduction target is an unconditional commitment, while the remaining emissions reductions are conditional on the Philippines receiving climate finance. We rate the Philippines’ 2030 conditional target ‘1.5°C global least cost’ compatible compared to modelled domestic pathways. Compared to its fair share contribution to achieving the 1.5°C limit, we rate the Philippines’ 2030 unconditional target as ‘Insufficient’.

In 2024, the Philippine government released its Energy Plan (PEP) for the period 2023 to 2040. The new PEP reduces coal and fossil gas generation compared to the previous version and targets at least a 35% renewable power generation share by 2030, rising above 50% by 2040 under the updated planning.

Despite these improvements and driven by steeply rising energy demand, coal and fossil gas power generation are still expected to increase by approximately 20% and 75%, respectively, above 2023 levels by 2030. The CAT estimates that the Philippines' current policy projections will lead to growing emissions that remain far above the ‘1.5°C global least cost’ compatible conditional 2030 target. The PEP reinforces this concern, as none of its scenarios aim to meet it.

The PEP plans for a ramp-up of fossil gas-fired power generation, projected to grow at an annual rate of 8% from 2023 to 2050, through the import of liquefied natural gas (LNG) enabled by a major infrastructure buildout in one of the world’s most biodiverse marine areas. The Philippines risks repeating its earlier mistake with coal by building a new dependency on imported fossil gas, creating a risk of stranded assets and jeopardising both energy security and affordability.

Coal still accounts for over 60% of the Philippines’ power generation as of 2025. The PEP does not include a timeline for coal phase-out, instead coal will continue to be part of the generation mix out to 2050 under current planning. Total coal generation is projected to rise by nearly a fifth by 2030. Exempt from the 2020 coal moratorium are 2 GW of newly-installed capacity, expected to start operating before 2027. The country’s ageing coal fleet is a key driver of its high electricity prices, costs ultimately borne by households and businesses.

Cost-effective renewables deployment could displace fossil-based generation, align projected emissions trajectories with the NDC’s conditional targets, strengthen energy security, and improve economic and health outcomes. The Philippines has a high wind and solar potential that the government is now working to make accessible by removing longstanding barriers that have, until recently, hindered progress. Thanks to the more favorable investment climate, the country now holds the largest pipeline of wind and solar projects in Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN).

There have been several other positive developments in the Philippines worth highlighting:

• A 50% electric vehicle (EV) stock target by 2040 was included in the Comprehensive Roadmap for the Electric Vehicle Industry and is reflected in the energy plan’s more ambitious scenarios.
• The Philippines has built up a huge renewable pipeline reaching 120 GW as of December 2025 due to recent policy developments. These developments include lifting foreign ownership restrictions on renewable projects, phasing out feed-in tariffs and replacing them with an auction-based system, and greater regulatory certainty.
• The Climate Accountability (CLIMA) Act, proposed to the Philippines’ House of Representatives in November 2023 — and currently still pending — is the first of its kind in the Global South. If approved, the CLIMA Act will provide a legal framework to hold corporate actors responsible for their environmental footprint and require them to compensate affected communities. The bill proposes a due diligence system linking to the UN Guiding Principles on Business and Human Rights.

To accelerate its emission reductions to align with a 1.5°C emissions pathway and reduce fossil fuel reliance, the Philippines could:

• Set a timeline and implementation plan to phase out of coal.
• Submit a 2035 NDC containing an ambitious conditional and unconditional 2035 target and an updated 2030 target, particularly strengthening the unconditional target.
• Develop a long-term strategy with a net zero target, a whole-of-economy strategy and a quantification of finance needs, to align the energy, industry, agriculture, waste and LULUCF sectors with 1.5°C aligned pathways (see CAT’s good practices to enhance countries’ net zero target).
• Ramp up renewable energy targets and renewables rollout to avoid switching from coal to fossil gas and achieve an orderly and timely phase-out of fossil fuels.
• Introduce additional incentives and de-risking measures for energy infrastructure to level the playing field with fossil fuel power generation.

The CAT rates each country’s targets and policies against (1) its fair share contribution to climate change mitigation considering a range of equity principles including responsibility, capability and equality, and (2) what is technically and economically feasible using modelled domestic pathways which in absence of a better method are based on global least-cost climate change mitigation.

Comparing a country’s fair share ranges and modelled domestic pathways provides insights into which governments should provide climate finance and which should receive it. Developed countries with large responsibility for historical emissions and high per-capita emissions, must not only implement ambitious climate action domestically but must also support climate action in developing countries with lower historical responsibility, capability, and lower per-capita emissions.

The CAT rates the Philippines’ climate targets and policies as ‘Almost Sufficient’. The ‘Almost sufficient’ overall rating indicates that the Philippines’ climate commitments and policies are not yet consistent with the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C temperature limit but could be with moderate improvements.

The overall rating has improved from ‘Insufficient’ to ‘Almost sufficient’ compared to our previous assessment due to a literature update to our fair share (FS) ranges, which aligns our equity approaches with international environmental law (Rajamani et al., 2021) and therefore exclude studies based on cost-effectiveness; we also included additional studies to reflect the latest research available in the field. Though current policy projections have minimally improved compared to our previous update, the rating change is a result of our fair share methodology update and does not represent improved climate action on the ground, compared to our previous assessment.

The Philippines’ unconditional NDC and policies and action are rated as ‘Insufficient’ and ‘Almost sufficient’ when compared to its fair share, respectively. The Philippines’ conditional NDC is rated as 1.5°C compatible compared to modelled domestic pathways.

As a country with lower responsibility, capability, and per-capita emissions, the Philippines should receive international support to implement the policies necessary to achieve its ambitious conditional 2030 NDC target.

To get a better rating, the Philippines needs to set a more ambitious unconditional target and establish the associated policies that can curb the growth in national emissions and set them on a downward trend.

We rate the Philippines’ current policies and actions as ‘Almost sufficient’ compared to its fair share contribution. The ‘Almost sufficient’ rating indicates that the Philippines’ climate policies and action in 2030 are not yet consistent with limiting warming to 1.5°C but could be, with moderate improvements. If all countries were to follow the Philippines’ approach, warming could be held at—but not well below—2°C.

The Philippines' current policies and action rating has changed from ‘Insufficient’ to ‘Almost sufficient’ from the CAT’s last assessment. This is due to a literature update to our fair share (FS) ranges, which aligns our equity approaches with international environmental law (Rajamani et al., 2021) and therefore exclude studies based on cost-effectiveness; we also included additional studies to reflect the latest research available in the field.

Current policies are projected to continue increasing to 334 MtCO₂e by 2030, an 84% increase above 2010 level (excluding LULUCF). To be 1.5°C compatible compared to fair share, the Philippines would have to reduce emissions further to 294 MtCO₂e by 2030. If the Philippines were to align with 1.5°C compatible modelled domestic pathways, emissions would need to be reduced even further to 199 MtCO₂e by 2030.

Plans to increase fossil gas reliance and lack of coal phase-out timeline raise concerns about energy security and long-term emissions growth. An integrated fossil fuels phase-out plan, supported by additional policies and international support and implemented in a just and fair manner, would be needed to align the Philippines with its conditional 2030 NDC target and 1.5°C compatible pathways.

The full policies and action analysis can be found here.

The Philippines is one of the few developing countries that put forward an ambitious conditional target that is consistent with limiting warming to 1.5°C when compared to least cost modelled domestic pathways and which we rate as ‘1.5°C global least cost’ compatible. Due to the limited historical responsibility and capability of the Philippines, it will need substantial international support to be able to meet this target.

We rate the Philippines' unconditional target as ‘Insufficient’ compared to its fair share. The ‘Insufficient’ rating indicates that the Philippines’ unconditional NDC target in 2030 needs substantial improvements to be consistent with its fair share of the global mitigation effort to limit warming to 1.5°C. The Philippines’ target is at the least stringent end of what would be a fair share of global effort, and is not consistent with the 1.5°C limit, unless other countries make much deeper reductions and comparably greater effort. If all countries were to follow the Philippines’ approach, warming would reach over 2°C and up to 3°C.

We estimate the Philippines’ unconditional NDC target to be at 395 MtCO₂e by 2030 (excl. LULUCF). To achieve its fair share contribution to limiting warming to 1.5°C, the Philippines would need to reach absolute emissions of at or below 294 MtCO₂e in 2030.

The actual emissions and/or removal levels for the Philippine forestry sector are highly uncertain. Government data shows nearly zero emissions from the sector in 1994, but a net sink (removal of CO₂ from the atmosphere) of 105 MtCO₂/yr in 2000 and a net sink of 37 MtCO₂e by 2010.

Government data shows a shrinking net sink, with estimates of 21.6 MtCO₂/yr in the LULUCF sector for 2021. This sector is at risk of becoming a source of emissions with commodity-driven deforestation as the dominant driver of tree cover loss.

The Philippines does not have a net zero target.