Saudi Arabia

Note: We have updated the text assessment to reflect the latest policy developments in Saudi Arabia. The CAT’s ratings and data are from our 2023 evaluation and will be updated soon.

Saudi Arabia has not implemented any policies that would substantially bring down its greenhouse gas emissions and reduce its reliance on fossil fuels. Previously-announced plans to cut emissions through expanding renewable energy are failing to materialise. Despite its “Vision 2030” diversification plan, initiated nearly a decade ago, the Saudi economy remains highly dependent on the production, use and export of hydrocarbons.

As well as not mitigating greenhouse gas emissions nationally, Saudi Arabia is also playing an increasingly disruptive role in international climate negotiations. Most recently at COP29, Saudi Arabia’s interventions aimed at blocking discussion on a transition away from fossil fuels and at disconnecting the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change 7th Assessment Report from the 2nd Global Stocktake under the Paris Agreement.

The country’s emissions are projected to continue increasing through 2030. As the world’s largest crude oil exporter, Saudi Arabia is responsible for a significant share of global emissions, with emissions from burning exported oil in other countries amounting to more than twice the level of its domestic emissions. The Climate Action Tracker (CAT) rates Saudi Arabia’s overall climate action as “Critically Insufficient”.

Saudi Arabia’s 2030 and 2060 climate commitments are not expected to help cut emissions: they lack transparency, rely largely on the deployment of carbon, capture and storage (CCS) technologies, and fail to address concerns about Saudi Arabia’s role as the world’s leading crude oil exporter.

Its 2030 emissions reduction target is explicitly based on a scenario with substantial fossil fuel exports and includes a “get out clause” if international climate change policies negatively affect these exports. Our analysis suggests that this target could lead to national emissions ranging anywhere between 520–800 MtCO₂e by 2030—going from a slight decrease in emissions to a significant increase compared to current levels due to uncertainties around the expected contribution of the land use and forestry sector.

The Saudi government also announced a 2060 net zero target in 2021 but has yet to release any additional information on this objective, nor enshrine it into law, giving it little credibility.

Despite its diversification plan, Saudi Arabia remains heavily dependent on oil revenues and has done little to effectively diversify towards a low carbon economy and adapt to a world heading to net zero emissions. In January 2024, the Saudi national oil company, Aramco, abandoned its plan to increase oil production capacity to 13 million barrels per day by 2027 from currently 12 million barrels per day. However, this decision appears largely driven by strategic considerations rather than a commitment to phase out fossil fuels, reflecting changes in the global oil market, including slowing demand growth and increased production from non-OPEC countries.

Saudi Arabia has the potential to become a world leader in renewable energy production, but has made very little progress in the last decade. The most recent target aims for 50% of electricity to be generated with renewable energy by 2030. However, in 2023, renewables only generated around 1% of electricity and Saudi Arabia had around 2.7 GW of installed renewable capacity. In contrast, it has 97 GW of oil and gas plants in operation along with a pipeline of more than 8 GW of fossil plants under construction as of August 2024.

Saudi Arabia also has a track record of obstructing international climate negotiations by repeatedly opposing references to the 1.5°C warming limit and language related to the phase-out of fossil fuels. Notably, at COP29, Saudi Arabia had sought to undermine the pledge to transition away from fossil fuels agreed at COP28. This raises concerns about the country’s willingness to engage in meaningful climate action on the global stage.

Saudi Arabia is already experiencing above-average temperature rise. Projections indicate that global warming will be more pronounced in the Middle East and North Africa region, with climate policies and actions around the world on course for warming in Saudi Arabia in the order of 4°C this century.

To improve its climate action, Saudi Arabia should take the following steps:

• Develop a credible economic diversification plan away from fossil fuels, which is both compatible with the Paris Agreement and takes into account the risks associated with exporting fossil fuels in a world heading to net zero emissions. This plan should include a clear commitment to ending new investments in oil and gas production and a phase-out of fossil fuels in line with a 1.5°C scenario.
• Significantly increase the pace of renewable energy deployment, which would help drive decarbonisation efforts and stimulate sustainable job growth for its young population, all of which are objectives of the Vision 2030 agenda.
• Update its NDC by strengthening its 2030 target, providing an absolute emissions reduction target (instead of a reduction below an uncommunicated baseline scenario) and clarifying the assumptions on LULUCF.
• Clarify the assumptions behind its 2060 net zero target, which currently lacks transparency and credibility, and does not provide a clear emissions reduction pathway.

The CAT rates each country’s targets and policies against (1) its fair share contribution to climate change mitigation considering a range of equity principles including responsibility, capability and equality, and (2) what is technically and economically feasible using modelled domestic pathways which, in absence of a better method, are based on global least-cost climate change mitigation.

Comparing a country’s fair share ranges and modelled domestic pathways provides insights into which governments should provide climate finance and which should receive it. Developed countries with large responsibility for historical emissions and high per-capita emissions, must not only implement ambitious climate action domestically but must also support climate action in developing countries with lower historical responsibility, capability, and lower per-capita emissions.

The CAT rates Saudi Arabia’s climate targets and policies as “Critically insufficient”. This rating indicates that Saudi Arabia’s climate policies and commitments reflect minimal to no action and are not at all consistent with the 1.5°C temperature limit. Saudi Arabia’s 2030 climate commitment is unclear, as the government has not published the baseline corresponding to its Paris Agreement target.

We rate Saudi Arabia’s 2030 emissions reduction target as “Critically insufficient” when compared with its fair-share contribution to climate action and is consistent with more than 4°C of warming.

The 2030 target is rated as ‘Highly insufficient’ when compared to modelled domestic pathways, downscaled from global least-cost scenarios. Saudi Arabia’s policies could lead to its emissions peaking in the second half of this decade, but still only in line with 2°C to 3°C warming. Saudi Arabia still needs to strengthen its target for emissions reductions and implement additional policies to get a rating aligned to the Paris Agreement.

We rate Saudi Arabia’s policies and actions against modelled domestic pathways as “Critically Insufficient”. This rating indicates that Saudi Arabia’s policies and action in 2030 reflect minimal to no action and are not at all consistent with limiting warming to 1.5°C. If all countries were to follow Saudi Arabia’s approach, warming would exceed 4°C.

Saudi Arabia remains highly dependent on fossil fuel revenues and keeps pushing for false solutions such as carbon capture and storage (CCS) in the hope of extending the life of its extractive industry. The government has put forward several mitigation measures, but implementation has been slow, particularly in the renewable energy sector. Despite its vast solar energy resource, Saudi Arabia had only installed about 2.7 GW of renewable energy capacity in 2023, generating around 1% of total electricity.

The full policies and action analysis can be found here.

We rate Saudi Arabia’s NDC target as “Critically insufficient” when compared to domestic pathways. This rating indicates that Saudi Arabia’s NDC target reflects minimal to no action and is not at all consistent with the 1.5°C temperature limit when compared to modelled domestic pathways. If all countries were to follow Saudi Arabia’s approach, warming would exceed 4°C.

Saudi Arabia's NDC rating against modelled domestic pathways has deteriorated compared to our previous assessment, due to an update in our modelled domestic pathways to the pathways assessed in the AR6, and a significant change in historical emissions. The latest historical data show higher emissions in the energy and industry sectors, which were previously underreported.

As a result, its NDC rating is no longer “Highly insufficient” and falls into the “Critically insufficient” range. Our newer pathways better capture national circumstances - including the recent plateauing in Saudi Arabia's emissions - and, for higher temperature levels, show less room for emissions growth than the previous set.

We rate Saudi Arabia’s NDC target against fair share as “Critically insufficient”. This rating indicates that Saudi Arabia’s NDC target in 2030 reflects minimal to no action and is not at all consistent with the 1.5°C temperature limit when compared to its fair share. If all countries were to follow Saudi Arabia’s approach, warming would exceed 4°C.

We evaluate the target as: Poor.

Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman announced Saudi Arabia’s net zero target for 2060 at the first Saudi Green Initiative Forum in October 2021. However, the target has yet to be enshrined in law or in a policy document.

Since its initial announcement in 2021, the Saudi government has not provided any further detailed information on scope, target architecture, or transparency. Saudi Arabia has not yet provided a clear emissions reduction pathway to net zero. The emission coverage remains unclear. The CAT currently assumes that only CO₂ emissions are covered given the lack of information.