Singapore

Despite increasing ambition with its updated climate plan (NDC) of 2022, setting numerous sectoral targets and making strides towards several of its key climate policies, Singapore’s emissions continue to rise. While Singapore’s current 2030 target is an improvement on its predecessor, it is still 131% higher than 1.5°C compatible modelled domestic pathways. Combined with the fact that Singapore is already projected to overachieve its 2030 target, this makes a strong case for increasing ambition in its forthcoming NDC update. The CAT rates Singapore’s climate targets and policies as “Highly insufficient” overall, an improvement on its previous "Critically insufficient" rating.

Singapore’s recent policy developments on clean energy have been promising. Most notable among these is the SGD 5bn Future Energy Fund announced in the 2024 budget. Singapore is also on-track to meet its target of importing 4 GW of “low carbon” electricity by 2035, which is expected to meet approximately 30% of domestic demand.

However, in parallel, Singapore is also doubling down on fossil gas, which currently provides around 94% of the country’s electricity generation. Singapore plans to expand both LNG imports and gas-fired generation capacity to meet the country’s growing electricity demand. It also aims to become the world’s largest LNG bunkering hub, to service an assumed growth in Asia’s LNG demand. Fossil gas needs to rapidly decline, and eventually be phased out with no new investments if we are to stay below the 1.5°C limit of the Paris Agreement.

The country’s carbon tax, covering about 80% of total emissions in 2023, was increased to SGD 25/tCO₂e (USD 19/tCO₂e) in 2024 as planned and will be increased to SGD 50–80/tCO₂e (USD 38-60/tCO₂e) by 2030. However, a much higher carbon price would be required to generate the incentives needed for a large-scale switch to zero carbon technology.

Several positive developments are worth highlighting, while noting that Singapore’s climate policies are yet to translate into a downwards emission trajectory:

• Singapore is rapidly expanding its solar capacity, where, given the country’s small land area and high population density, floating solar panels play an important role. The government targets 1.5 GW of installed capacity by 2025 and at least 2 GW by 2030. As of end 2023, solar PV had reached 1.17 GW installed capacity
• Singapore has introduced numerous sectoral policies with mitigation measures and/or targets proposed in electricity supply, industry, buildings, transport, and waste
• In its addendum to its long-term strategy (LT-LEDS), Singapore brought forward its net zero target year to 2050 from ‘as soon as viable in the second half of the century’

Emissions under current policies are expected to continue rising towards 2030, despite a brief dip due to the COVID-19 pandemic and contrary to what is needed to achieve the 1.5°C temperature goal. To reverse its emissions upward trend, Singapore could:

• Increase the ambition of its 2030 climate target consistent with 1.5°C compatible modelled domestic pathways, especially considering that Singapore is already projected to overachieve its current 2030 target.
• Accelerate its transition away from fossil gas by further exploring energy efficiency measures to temper its rapidly-growing electricity demand and pursuing its plans to become a regional hub for storage, trade, and transportation of green hydrogen.
• Go further than its domestic target by increasing finance and support for decarbonisation and renewable energy projects in the region.
• Double down on regional renewable energy collaboration and imports, instead of fossil gas. While CAT modelled domestic pathways do not reflect Singapore’s particularly low domestic RE potential, these pathways do reflect the rapid decarbonisation in the Southeast Asian region that Singapore should follow, if not lead. Given its context, Singapore can play an even larger role in driving regional decarbonisation and energy collaboration.

The CAT rates each country’s targets and policies against (1) its fair share contribution to climate change mitigation considering a range of equity principles including responsibility, capability and equality, and (2) what is technically and economically feasible using modelled domestic pathways which in absence of a better method are based on global least-cost climate change mitigation.

Comparing a country’s fair share ranges and modelled domestic pathways provides insights into which governments should provide climate finance and which should receive it. Developed countries with large responsibility for historical emissions and high per-capita emissions, must not only implement ambitious climate action domestically but must also support climate action in developing countries with lower historical responsibility, capability, and lower per-capita emissions.

The CAT rates Singapore’s climate targets and policies as “Highly insufficient”. The “Highly insufficient” rating indicates that Singapore’s climate policies and commitments are not consistent with the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C temperature limit and lead to rising, rather than falling, emissions.

Singapore is far from meeting its fair share contribution to climate change mitigation. Singapore’s NDC target is rated “Highly insufficient” compared to both its fair share and modelled domestic pathways. We rate Singapore’s policies and action against modelled domestic pathways as “Highly insufficient” as well.

Singapore’s 2030 emissions reduction target is consistent with 4°C of warming when compared to modelled domestic emissions pathways. If fully implemented, Singapore’s current policies would result in emissions reductions beyond its target, but still only in line with 4°C warming.

To improve its rating, Singapore should strengthen its domestic emissions reduction target and adopt policies necessary to reach this goal.

Singapore’s overall rating has improved due to an update in our modelled domestic pathways to the national inventory dataset: it is not due to any fundamental changes in the target itself, nor the current policy projections.

We rate Singapore’s policies and action as “Insufficient”. The “Insufficient” rating indicates that Singapore’s policies and action in 2030 need substantial improvements to be consistent with limiting warming to 1.5°C. If all countries were to follow Singapore’s approach, warming would reach over 2°C and up to 3°C.

Under current policies and action Singapore’s emissions will increase to 56-57 MtCO₂e in 2030, which is under its 2030 target, but still not consistent with the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C temperature limit.

Emissions in Singapore are dominated by the energy and industry sectors. The carbon tax, targeting upstream emissions from large emitters, was increased to SGD 25/tCO₂e (USD 19/tCO₂e) in 2024, up from 5 SGD/tCO₂e (USD 4/tCO₂e) in 2019. It is planned to increase the rate further to 45/tCO₂e by 2026-2027, with a target of reaching SGD 50-80/tCO₂e by 2030. Despite this improvement, the carbon tax is still far too low when compared to IPCC estimates for a 1.5°C compatible price. A tax at appropriate level could encourage more renewable energy in place of fossil fuel energy by adding a price for the emitted carbon. However, higher tax levels are needed to encourage a significant shift to decarbonising the power sector.

While renewable energy capacity has expanded, fossil gas remains the dominant energy source in the power sector. Fossil gas accounted for more than 94% of generation in 2023, up from 18% in 2000 when electricity was primarily generated from fuel oil. Singapore does not have any hydrocarbon reserves, but petroleum refining, storage, and distribution infrastructure has historically been a significant part of its economy. The Asia-Pacific region is responsible for 70% of the world’s LNG demand. Based on assumed growth in Asian LNG demand, Singapore is investing to remain the world’s largest LNG bunkering hub, now growing its business line to sell ‘other’ fuels such as LNG and biofuel, as well as maritime fuels.

Singapore is forging ahead with electricity imports to meet its target of 4 GW of low carbon electricity imports by 2035. Several 100 MW import trials have started or are planned, and the Energy Market Authority has granted conditional approval to projects from Cambodia, Indonesia and Vietnam, totalling 4.2 GW.

Outside the power generation sector, Singapore’s mitigation efforts almost exclusively consist of measures aimed at improving energy efficiency through programmes like Green Mark standards for buildings, public transport, fuel efficiency standards, home appliance efficiency standards, industrial energy efficiency, and waste management. However, with a fossil fuel dependent energy mix, the effect of these policies on emissions is limited and does not compensate for the overall increase in energy demand.

For more detail, see the policies and action section here.

The CAT rates Singapore's NDC target as "Highly insufficient" when rated against modelled domestic pathways. The “Highly insufficient” rating indicates that Singapore’s domestic target in 2030 leads to rising, rather than falling, emissions and is not at all consistent with modelled domestic pathways limiting warming to 1.5°C. If all countries were to follow Singapore’s approach, warming could reach over 3°C and up to 4°C.

A stronger target is needed if Singapore is to follow its modelled domestic pathway. The government’s target of 60 MtCO₂e by 2030, which is 30% above 2010 levels, is an improvement on the previous target of 65 MtCO₂e by 2030. However, when compared against modelled domestic pathways Singapore’s NDC target is 131% higher than 1.5°C compatibility.

Singapore’s emission levels under its NDC target are substantially higher than what would be deemed 1.5°C compatible compared to our “fair share” approach. The CAT rates Singapore's NDC target as "Highly insufficient"when rated against its fair share contribution.

Singapore’s NDC target in 2030 is not at all consistent with its fair share of the global mitigation effort to limit warming to 1.5°C, and would require other countries make much deeper reductions and comparably greater effort. If all countries were to follow Singapore’s approach, warming would over 3°C and up to 4°C.

Singapore has committed to net zero GHG emissions by 2050 as part of its Long-Term Low Emissions Development Strategy (LT-LEDS), which is an improvement on its previous loosely defined ‘as soon as viable in the second half of the century’. Singapore’s LT-LEDS includes information on sector-specific policies, but it does not provide details on the mitigation potential of those measures, define an emissions pathway to net zero, or outline the level of dependence on CCUS needed to achieve the target. CAT evaluates Singapore’s net zero target as Poor.

Full details of the assessment can be found here.