The Gambia
Rating
Assessment
On 30 September 2015, The Gambia submitted its Intended National Determined Contribution (INDC), offering to reduce its greenhouse gas emissions, excluding the land use, land use change and forestry (LULUCF) sector, by 1.42 MtCO2e. This is equivalent to a 44.4% reduction in 2025 below a low business as usual scenario (BAU), excl. LULUCF. The Gambia is offering to reduce emissions 0.079 MtCO2e in 2025 unilaterally, with an additional 1.34 MtCO2e, conditional on the availability of international financial and technical support.
In addition, The Gambia’s INDC also includes abatement in the LULUCF sector: it plans to unilaterally abate 0.28 MtCO2e by 2025 through afforestation. The Gambia has also pledged to abate 0.69 MtCO2e by replacing flooded rice fields by dry upland ones, and by using efficient cook stoves to reduce the overuse of forest resources, conditional on international support.
The CAT rates INDCs only on unconditional targets excl. LULUCF. Since The Gambia submitted its unconditional pledge with a commitment till 2025, the CAT rates the INDC “sufficient.” This means that, in taking the year 2025 as reference, The Gambia is doing its “fair share” of global efforts to hold warming below 2°C. The 2030 indicative emissions levels presented in their INDC fall however in the “medium” range, so if no policies are implemented towards the conditional target, The Gambia’s rating could change to “medium.”
The INDC indicated that there are low and medium emissions BAU scenarios. This INDC is relative to the low emissions BAU scenario. However, if it was relative to a medium emissions BAU scenario, the INDC may be rated “medium”. In this case, The Gambia’s climate actions would not be consistent with limiting warming below 2°C unless other countries make deeper reductions and comparably greater effort.
The Gambia is one of the rare developing countries in the world to propose an ambitious conditional target that would bend its emissions onto a downward trajectory. Provided it gets financial and technical support, The Gambia would, in 2030, still be doing its “fair share” of global efforts to reduce global warming below 2°C.
The Gambia provides a set of quantified sectoral measures to indicate how it is planning to reach its targets between 2021 and 2025. It will reach its unconditional target by deploying renewable energy, and this target is estimated to abate 0.079 MtCO2e. Its conditional target is estimated to abate additional 1.34 MtCO2e, and will be reached through improving energy efficiency in the power system, and in the buildings, transport, agriculture and waste sectors, as well as expanding its unconditional renewable energy target. Excluding the LULUCF sector, by 2030, The Gambia is planning to abate a further 0.025 MtCO2e on its own, and another 0.32 MtCO2e subject to international support. The expected mitigation from these actions will contribute to an emissions level of 2.1 MtCO2e excl. LULUCF in 2030, which is equivalent to 45.4% below a low BAU scenario.
Since the current energy system in The Gambia has become a burden on the The Gambian economy due to its continued dependence on imported fuel oil, the government has recognised that the transition to an affordable sustainable energy system is a critical milestone for the country’s socio-economic development (IRENA, 2013). To ignite the transition, in 2013 the government enacted the New Renewable Energy law to implement a feed-in tariff for renewable energy sources, and to establish a renewable energy fund to promote the use of such sources (Ministry of Energy, 2013). Currently implemented policies put The Gambia on track to meet its unconditional target.
To meet its conditional target and give confidence to international investors, the The Gambian government announced, in its Sustainable Energy Action Plan (ECOWAS, 2015), specific renewable energy and energy efficiency targets for 2020 and 2030 and declared the measures it would deploy to reach those targets. Since these measures will be implemented only if The Gambia receives international funds and technical support, we do not include them in the current policy projections. Nevertheless these measures set the stage for a rapid implementation of its conditional INDC providing international financial resources are mobilised.
Post-2020 contribution
On 30 September 2015, The Gambia submitted its INDC, with the aim of unconditionally reducing GHG emissions excluding the LULUCF sector by 0.079 MtCO2e in 2025. The Gambia would increase its GHG reductions by 1.34 MtCO2e excl. LULUCF in 2025 if it receives financial and technical support. By 2030, the unconditional mitigation actions are expected to result in emission reductions of 0.10 MtCO2e excl. LULUCF, while the conditional actions will lead to a further 1.67 MtCO2e of abatement.
In addition, The Gambia plans to unilaterally abate 0.28 MtCO2e in the LULUCF sector through afforestation by 2025. By 2025, it intends to abate 0.69 MtCO2e by replacing flooded rice fields by dry upland ones and by using efficient cook stoves to reduce the overuse of forest resources (based on international support).
The INDC indicated that there are low and medium emissions BAU scenarios. The INDC is relative to the low emissions BAU scenario. According to its INDC,, The Gambia’s emissions are projected to grow by 3% annually until 2030. It indicates there are other scenarios assuming higher economic growth, but those are not publicly available. The submission also provides quantified sectorial mitigation targets with a description of recent policy instruments set in place for means of implementation, and for attracting international support. As a Least Developed Country, The Gambia was not required to provide a quantitative target under the Lima Call for Action. Nonetheless, it endeavoured to complete a detailed INDC to help drive developed countries to undertake actions proportional to their global responsibilities and capabilities.
