Ukraine pledged a target of 20% emissions reduction by 2020 below 1990 levels. This target is rated as ‘inadequate’, since their commitments by 2020 are above business-as-usual projections. With currently implemented policies, Ukraine will meet its 2020 pledge. Ukraine’s long-term target to reduce emissions by 50% below 1990 levels by 2050 is also rated “inadequate”.
The Ukraine submitted a QELRO1 (Quantified Emission Limitation or Reduction Objective) level of 76 for the second commitment period of the Kyoto Protocol. This represents a 14% reduction of average annual emissions in the period of 2013 to 2020 - below base year. The target is conditional on full carry-over and, to directly quote the Government, no "cancellation or any limitation on use of this legitimately acquired sovereign property."
The Doha amendment limits targets for the second commitment period to the average historic emissions 2008–2010.2 The Ukraine is the country most affected by this rule, which leads to a Kyoto pathway almost 300 MtCO2e/yr lower than the direct translation of their target for the period 2012–2020.
Ukraine's Kyoto target for the current commitment period (2013–2020) is 14% below 1990.
The pledge under the Convention of a reduction of 20% below 1990 by 2020 is a conditional pledge based on a number of different factors: an agreed range of emissions reductions for Annex I parties, Ukraine’s status as an economy in transition, the flexible mechanisms, 1990 as base year and to be allowed to continue to carry over surplus AAUs (Article 3.13). Ukraine’s internationally pledged emissions target of 20% below 1990 levels for 2020 is above the emissions projections of 507 MtCO2e from the ‘without measures scenario’ of the 6th National Communication (not shown in the graph).
For 2050, Ukraine has proposed an emission reduction target of 50% below 1990 levels by 2050.
Currently implemented policies are expected to lead to an emissions level of between 492 and 608 MtCO2e in 2020 and between 735 and 767 MtCO2e in 2030 excluding LULUCF. Following the trend of LULUCF emissions in the last 10 years, we can expect no additional reduction from this sector in 2020.
Between 1990 and 2000, emissions in the Ukraine dropped by 56% from 940 MtCO2e to 412 MtCO2e. From 2001 to 2007, the emissions started to increase again moderately to a level of 445 MtCO2e or 53% below 1990, followed by a steep decline during the financial crisis in 2009.
In 2008, Ukraine introduced a feed-in-scheme with fixed prices, the so-called "green" tariff for electricity. The green tariff also guarantees grid connectivity to all renewable power generated from the project. The feed-in tariffs are relatively high: 0.42 €/kWh for solar PV and an average level of 0.11 €/kWh for wind. In 2012, the tariffs have been updated and adjusted to the market levels. The amendment also included the introduction of obligatory "local content" rates expressed as a percentage. The "local content" rate relates to a certain ratio of elements used in building renewable energy plants on the territory of Ukraine that must be manufactured in the country. This could be a barrier for implementation, since the additional burden to use local suppliers that might be more expensive could lead to decreased demand.
In 2013, Ukraine updated its energy strategy through to 2030. The strategy sets new targets for different energy carriers such as electricity generation from renewable energy sources and nuclear power. However, since there are no clear supporting policies discussed except the feed-in tariff mechanisms, this strategy is not further quantified here.
Targets for 2020 and 2050 were calculated from the most recent national inventory submissions (CRF, 2014).
We calculated Ukraine's LULUCF accounting quantities for the first commitment period (2008-2012) for afforestation, reforestation and deforestation using the current Kyoto rules. The Ukraine has submitted information on their forest reference level, which is equal to their 1990 forest management emissions and removals.
Current policy projections
Historic data are based on most recent national inventory submissions (CRF, 2014). Projections are based on the ‘without measures’ scenario from Ukraine’s latest National Communication (Government of Ukraine, 2013) and a report prepared in 2011 by NERA and Bloomberg for the EBRD "The Demand for Greenhouse Gas Emissions Reduction Investments: An Investors’ Marginal Abatement Cost Curve Ukraine (NERA Economic Consulting and Bloomberg New Energy Finance (BNEF), 2012). The range of the 'Policy "Status Quo" Scenario’ and the ‘Planned Policies Scenario was used and adjusted to most recent historic data. The “without measures” scenario was included in the current policy pathways because it projects a lower 2020 emission level compared to the NERA and Bloomberg report.
The ‘with measures’ scenario from Ukraine’s National Communication (Government of Ukraine, 2013), was not included because includes measures that have not been implemented.
CRF (2014). UNFCCC AWG-KP Submissions 2014. Common Reporting Format.
Government of Ukraine (2010). Ukraine's pledge to the Copenhagen Accord. Compiled in: Compilation of economy-wide emission reduction targets to be implemented by Parties included in Annex I to the Convention, UNFCCC (2011).
Government of Ukraine (2009a). Submissions by Parties, FCCC/KP/AWG/2009/MISC1/, contribution of Annex I Parties, individually or jointly, to the scale of emission reductions to be achieved by Annex I Parties in aggregate.
Government of Ukraine (2013). 6th National Communication.
NERA Economic Consulting and Bloomberg New Energy Finance (BNEF) (2012). The Demand for Greenhouse Gas Emissions Reduction Investments: An Investors’ Marginal Abatement Cost Curve for Ukraine, Prepared for EBRD, January 2012, London.
1 The QELRO, expressed as a percentage in relation to a base year, denotes the average level of emissions that an Annex B Party could emit on an annual basis during a given commitment period.
2 This is part of the Doha decisions and constitutes part of the amendments to the Kyoto Protocol. Amendments only come into effect once they are ratified by Parties.