G7+EU INDCs: some improvement, but a large emissions gap remains

The combined climate plans for the G7 and EU have made a small step towards the right track to hold warming to 2?C, but there is still a substantial emissions gap, the Climate Action Tracker said today.

Ahead of the upcoming G7 meeting in Germany, the Climate Action Tracker - an analysis carried out by four research organisations - has looked at the combined INDCs of all G7 governments and the EU, who are responsible, in aggregate, for around 30% of global greenhouse gas emissions and 40% of global GDP.

Key findings:

• Current policies in the G7+EU are projected to only stabilise emissions through to 2030 at close to present levels, whereas a rapid decline in emissions is needed.
• The combined effect of the G7+EU INDCs for 2025, and 2030 would bring the group 20-30% of the way to 2°C and 1.5°C-consistent emissions.
• There is still a gap of around 6.5, 7.6 and 7.8 GtCO2e/year in 2020, 2025 and 2030 respectively or 21%, 24% and 25% of 1990 emissions levels (excluding Forestry).
• The G7+EU 2020 pledges only bring emissions 5% of the way towards emissions levels consistent with 2°C and 1.5°C in that year.
• There is a need to upgrade efforts to reduce emissions before 2020 in order to make it easier to rapidly reduce emissions in the 2020s.
• The inadequacy of the post-2020 INDC commitments compared to 2°C and 1.5°C -consistent emissions levels reinforces the need for the G7+EU to significantly improve upon the INDCs they have submitted to date - before Paris.
• The low ambition of the INDCs and the large gap between current policies and the INDCs reinforces concerns that INDC commitments be limited in time, e.g. to five years (2021-2025) to avoid locking in emissions levels that are inconsistent with the 2°C and 1.5°C emission pathways.