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Comparison between CAT and Climate Interactive assessments

19th October 2015

Full assessment here.

The Climate Action Tracker estimates a “best-guess” (median) global warming by 2100 of 2.7°C above pre-industrial, based on its assessment of pledges and policies in INDCs  from 1 October 2015, with likely (>66%) chance of warming below 3°C. Climate Interactive estimates a best guess, median warming level of 3.5°C, significantly higher than the CAT estimate.

This results principally from significantly different emissions assumptions, both post-2030 and, to a lesser extent, in the period 2020-2030. The CAT assumes that a similar level of effort will be undertaken by countries post-2030 as applies in the period 2020-2030, whereas Climate Interactive assumes no direct connection between efforts before and after 2030. The climate science is consistent between the two assessments and does not explain the differences. Read more...