CAT Emissions Gaps

7th December 2015

  

 

Data underlying the above graph can be downloaded here

 

Emissions gaps between current pledges and 2°C consistent pathways 

In addition to the global temperature outcomes of policies and pledges, the CAT also assess the expected absolute emissions in 2020, 2025, and 2030 and compares these with benchmark emissions consistent with limiting warming below 2°C with likely (≥66%) probability and with limiting warming below 1.5°C by 2100 (with ≥50% probability) for these years.

As of 7 December 2015, a substantial gap remains between the levels of emissions in 2025 and 2030 projected in the INDCs submitted to the UNFCCC and the lower levels that would be consistent with limiting warming below 2°C (or 1.5°C).

With the INDCs submitted by 7 December 2015, the CAT projects that total global emissions would be 52-54 GtCO2e in 2025 and 53-55 GtCO2e in 2030 (the red shaded area in the above graph), significantly above present global emissions of about 48 GtCO2e.  We therefore estimate the emissions gap at 11-13 GtCO2e in 2025, growing to about 15-17 GtCO2e in 2030.

The emissions gap for the 1.5°C pathway is about 3 GtCO2e larger than the 2°C gap in 2025, and 6 GtCO2e larger in 2030. 

The gaps between current policy projections and the 1.5°C and 2°C benchmarks are higher than the pledge gaps. This means that currently implemented government policies are not strong enough to achieve the pledges governments have made. Current policies are estimated to result in emissions of 55-57 GtCO2e in 2025 and 58-61 GtCO2e in 2030 (the blue shaded area). The policy gap to 2°C increases from 12-18 GtCO2e in 2025 to 21-28 GtCO2e in 2030.