CAT Emissions Gap

In addition to the global temperature outcomes of policies and pledges, the CAT also assesses the expected absolute emissions in 2030 and compares these with emissions consistent with benchmark pathways in line with the 1.5°C Paris Agreement goal.

As of December 2023, a substantial gap remains between the levels of emissions in 2030 projected in the NDCs submitted to the UNFCCC and between current levels of government action, and the lower levels that would be consistent with the temperature limit of the Paris Agreement.

The benchmark emissions from a 1.5°C compatible pathway are at 27 GtCO₂e in 2030. The emissions gap between this level and 2030 NDCs (excluding hot air)^[1] is 19–22 GtCO₂e in 2030 (the 'targets gap'), and 24-27 GtCO₂e in 2030 for current policies and action (the 'implementation gap').

Our latest briefing has the full details of this analysis.

[1] For weak targets, we take a country’s estimated 2030 level under current policies, if that level is lower than the target.

Last update: 5 December 2023

Climate Action Tracker (2024). 2030 Emissions Gap: CAT projections and resulting emissions gap in meeting the 1.5°C Paris Agreement goal. November 2024. Available at: https://climateactiontracker.org/global/cat-emissions-gaps/. Copyright ©2024 by Climate Analytics and NewClimate Institute. All rights reserved.