In addition to the global temperature outcomes of policies and pledges, the CAT also assesses the expected absolute emissions in 2030 and compares these with emissions consistent with benchmark pathways in line with the 1.5°C Paris Agreement goal.
As of November 2022, a substantial gap remains between the levels of emissions in 2030 projected in the NDCs submitted to the UNFCCC and between current levels of government action, and the lower levels that would be consistent with the temperature limit of the Paris Agreement.
The benchmark emissions from a 1.5°C compatible pathway are at 27 GtCO2e in 2030. The emissions gap between this level and 2030 NDCs (excluding hot air) is 19–22 GtCO2e in 2030 (the 'targets gap'), and 23-27 GtCO2e in 2030 for current policies and action (the 'implementation gap').
Our latest briefing has the full details of this analysis.
 For weak targets, we take a country’s estimated 2030 level under current policies, if that level is lower than the target.
Last update: 10 November 2022
Climate Action Tracker (2022). 2030 Emissions Gap: CAT projections and resulting emissions gap in meeting the 1.5°C Paris Agreement goal. November 2022. Available at: https://climateactiontracker.org/global/cat-emissions-gaps/. Copyright ©2022 by Climate Analytics and NewClimate Institute. All rights reserved.