Emissions Gaps

In addition to the global temperature outcomes of current policies and targets, the CAT also assesses the expected absolute emissions in 2030 and 2035, and compares these with emissions consistent with pathways in line with the 1.5°C Paris Agreement goal.

As of November 2025, substantial gaps remain:

• The Target gap: even if all countries met their official 2030 and 2035 climate promises¹, the world would still fall short of what's needed, by 26-29 gigatonnes of greenhouse gas emissions (26-29 GtCO₂e) in 2030 and by 26-31 GtCO₂e in 2035.
• The Implementation gap: current government policies & actions put us even further behind, we are currently on track to emit 29-32 GtCO₂e more than the safe level in 2030 and 31-37 GtCO₂e in 2035.

To put this in perspective, emissions levels for a 1.5°C compatible pathways stand at 27 GtCO₂e in 2030 and 21 GtCO₂e in 2035. However, current policies put us on track for approximately double that amount. This means we need both stronger climate pledges, and much more aggressive action to have any chance of meeting the Paris Agreement climate goals.

For further details, please see our latest global temperature update briefing or our global methodology.

Last update: 13 November 2025

Climate Action Tracker (2025). 2035 Emissions Gap: CAT projections and resulting emissions gap in meeting the 1.5°C Paris Agreement goal. November 2025. Available at: https://climateactiontracker.org/global/emissions-gaps/.

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1 | For weak targets, we take a country’s estimated 2030 or 2035 level under current policies, if that level is lower than the target.