Chile’s draft NDC commitment for 2035 is “Insufficient” to keep global warming to 1.5°C

The Chilean government released its draft 2035 NDC for public consultation on 17 January, 2025. The proposed target would be rated "Insufficient" - a downgrade from the CAT's rating for its previous target, as it would widen the gap toward a 1.5˚C pathway.

In this draft, the Chilean government proposes to:

• Limit GHG emissions to 91 MtCO₂e by 2035 (excl. LULUCF)
• Commit to a national GHG emissions budget of no more than 490 MtCO₂e between 2031 and 2035
• Peak emissions in 2025
• Keep the targets for 2030 included in its previous NDC submission

The draft NDC includes several positive elements: it introduces sectoral emission budgets and mitigation plans, prioritises the development of green hydrogen, and references the voluntary closure of Chile’s coal-fired power plants by 2040, as part of its coal phase-out and just transition process.

However, the proposed target falls short of what is required to align with the Paris Agreement 1.5ºC temperature goal. While the Climate Action Tracker rates the 2030 target as “Almost insufficient”, the 2035 target and the proposed slower pace of emissions reductions post-2030 significantly widens the gap between Chile’s target and its 1.5°C-compatible emissions level, increasing from ~15 MtCO₂e in 2030 to ~30 MtCO₂e in 2035. The proposed 2035 target would be rated “Insufficient”.

Chile has long stood out as a regional and global leader on climate action – a reputation built on ambitious policies and a strong commitment to international climate goals. To continue this legacy and to lead by example, Chile needs to raise the ambition of its NDC targets to ensure they are aligned with a 1.5°C compatible pathway. This means strengthening its 2030 target to 80 MtCO₂e (excl. LULUCF) by 2030 and significantly increasing the ambition of its 2035 target to an absolute emissions limit of 60 MtCO₂e (excl. LULUCF).

With the draft NDC yet to be formally submitted to the UNFCCC, the government has a critical window of opportunity to improve its climate ambition and align its targets with 1.5°C compatible pathways.

The Climate Action Tracker will assess Chile’s 2035 target as part of its recently launched 2035 Climate Target Update Tracker once officially submitted to the UNFCCC.

Read our Chile assessment

Go to our 2035 Climate Target Update Tracker